Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone worrying about a pinpoint solution at 5 days out is going to get an ulcer....IN the wordsletters of Aaron Rodgers....R-E-L-A-X. The setup is good....wait for a consensus of models going the wrong way to throw it out. The Fonz of weather forecasting..."Everybody be cool. It's just the 18z. Now, go about your business. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Welcome, Bango...good to have another weather geek from the TRI on the board. I don't post very often either, but do read alot and look forward to the analysis and discussion from our great regulars. Now, let's hope your entrance to the forum coincides with a big blast of snow next week! :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Love it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 While everyone is waiting around for the 0z runs here is the experimental FIM model for you to play around with: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_zeus&domain=t6&run_time=12+Feb+2015+-+12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is Robert wxeastern on fb? or wxsouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is Robert wxeastern on fb? or wxsouth? Gawd no, wxsouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah WxSouth.com is his (Roberts) paid site. He usually teases on FB and goes into detail on his site. He's a very good met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 While everyone is waiting around for the 0z runs here is the experimental FIM model for you to play around with: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_zeus&domain=t6&run_time=12+Feb+2015+-+12Z I was playing on this and I noticed the FIM model lays down a small snow cover for TRI heading into Monday. From what I have gathered, TRI isn't really going to have to worry about temps but rather how much moisture there is to work with (track of the low duh) but let's say we had a slight warm nose. Would having a snow cover make any difference if you have a warm nose, since I am assuming the problem is warm air aloft and not a surface thing? Has anybody ever experienced a warm tongue with a snow cover? I know from following the weather that Chattanooga has been a notorious warm tongue area, usually the warm tongue is blocked up here in TRI but we've had it on occasion. I think Knox gets the dreaded warm tongue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is Robert wxeastern on fb? or wxsouth? Yeah Robert is WxSouth. Wx eastern is run by a guy named Toot and he also runs a forum called tnweatherspot. Robert is the best in the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I was playing on this and I noticed the FIM model lays down a small snow cover for TRI heading into Monday. From what I have gathered, TRI isn't really going to have to worry about temps but rather how much moisture there is to work with (track of the low duh) but let's say we had a slight warm nose. Would having a snow cover make any difference if you have a warm nose, since I am assuming the problem is warm air aloft and not a surface thing? Has anybody ever experienced a warm tongue with a snow cover? I know from following the weather that Chattanooga has been a notorious warm tongue area, usually the warm tongue is blocked up here in TRI but we've had it on occasion. I think Knox gets the dreaded warm tongue as well. I'll take a stab at answering this question. I'm sure others would know a lot more about this than me. I wouldn't imagine snow cover prior to the system would hurt us. Snow cover lowers the temperature during the day and the night. During the day the energy from the sun is reflected back into the atmosphere instead of being absorbed by the ground. During the night especially when it is clear the snow releases heat which cools the surface more than if there was no snow. Now with a warm nose I'm not sure if snow cover would help that much since most warm noses are higher up in the atmosphere. The snow would melt into rain and wouldn't have enough time to freeze back into snow. I guess it would also depend on the strength of the warm nose. If the warm nose is strong snow cover wouldn't have an affect much at all. I think snow cover would have a greater affect in marginal scenarios where it would be the difference between rain and freezing rain. Can anyone else take a stab at this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Minus the UKMET, is the move towards suppression this AM? Looks like it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to put the breaks on the hype, folks. Significant snow on the op's is trending waaaay down. That trend continues at 12z, we will be discussing nothing but Thursday's clipper which will jig north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think it's hype and I think there are really only a couple of options here. The biggest question revolves around the energy buried in the southwest. If it gets captured and comes out this is likely a bigger deal. Even if it doesn't though, 2-4 would definitely be achievable. It should be noted that the ensembles of the GGEM and GFS are north of the OP with good amounts of QPF for the entire state. The OP runs give me slight pause, but to have the GFS south of us in the 3-4 day timeframe has never scared me in the past and it won't now. If that is what verifies, we can pat the GFS on the back and file it to memory for the future. We just don't have enough history with the new GFS model to know if it holds some of the same tendencies. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man the 12z GFS has more opportunity for us to cash out than I've ever seen! Potential storm after storm! Crazy I know it's not 1960(someone correct me if I have the wrong year)but man what's being modeled must have been a lot like it was back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 1960 did lack winter until late January/early Feb. Then it just crushed us all. 70+ inches here. I posted the other day that it'll happen again at some point. Probably won't be this year but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think it's hype and I think there are really only a couple of options here. The biggest question revolves around the energy buried in the southwest. If it gets captured and comes out this is likely a bigger deal. Even if it doesn't though, 2-4 would definitely be achievable. It should be noted that the ensembles of the GGEM and GFS are north of the OP with good amounts of QPF for the entire state. The OP runs give me slight pause, but to have the GFS south of us in the 3-4 day timeframe has never scared me in the past and it won't now. If that is what verifies, we can pat the GFS on the back and file it to memory for the future. We just don't have enough history with the new GFS model to know if it holds some of the same tendencies. Time will tell. I am on board at this point. Still much to be determined. I just didn't want to see the board go the way of the SE forum where things roll like a runaway train and reason is left to a few. Like I said in another post, many wild cards left on the table, but at least we have something to track. 1960...Man, I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Housekeeping question...Do we want to make the Fab February a storm thread or medium range discussion thread? I think there is still more to discuss after this storm. Might need one thread for Monday-Wednesday. I am not sure where to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here is why I say that...CPC is going for below normal temps for the Valley in the 8-14 day w/ above normal precip. Where would I put that conversation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the storm needs a thread at this point. There are other issues to discuss in the February thread. Like the potential for -10 degree windchills Friday night and the extreme cold later next week, also another potential clipper/storm coming a few days after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the storm needs a thread at this point. There are other issues to discuss in the February thread. Like the potential for -10 degree windchills Friday night and the extreme cold later next week, also another potential clipper/storm coming a few days after this one. Sounds like a plan. Somebody start a storm thread. Will make it easier "archive" and find later anyway. Be sure to add the tags to it. Makes it easier to search for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 collective shock anyone haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Right now I've norrowed down my thoughts on the potential of this storm to two questions. Should I go to Ace Hardware and Tractor Supply tonight and look for a sled or wait? Also, should I buy beer now or wait? We've got plenty of firewood so we're good on that front. Check that Ace Hardware is closed. Tractor supply it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right now I've norrowed down my thoughts on the potential of this storm to two questions. Should I go to Ace Hardware and Tractor Supply tonight and look for a sled or wait? Also, should I buy beer now or wait? We've got plenty of firewood so we're good on that front. Check that Ace Hardware is closed. Tractor supply it is. Could be some bad mojo. I am starting to get superstitious about even telling my friends about snow. I have one snow shovel. I refuse to buy a new one. People, does my heart good to see 35-45 Tennessee Valley folks looking at the weather board - our weather board!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If we get a good snow early next week, you guys owe me big time! Last Saturday when it was 60+ degrees outside I took the kids sleds and put them in storage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 If we get a good snow early next week, you guys owe me big time! Last Saturday when it was 60+ degrees outside I took the kids sleds and put them in storage Can we arrange to have you put them in the shed December next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazenmp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Your kids have sleds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can we arrange to have you put them in the shed December next time? LOL. I say we get MrBob to cancel winter in early December, the same day I put the sleds in storage. No doubt...... we'd be golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 21 people at 1:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 21 people at 1:00 AM. It's getting hard to keep up with all the posts coming in! I guess you could call it the walking dead ( I don't watch the show lol) after the winter till now. I saw a cool image Ryan Maue posted on Twitter of the winds associated with tomorrow's Nor'easter. This thing looks like a hurricane. There have been a lot of nor'easters this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's getting hard to keep up with all the posts coming in! I guess you could call it the walking dead ( I don't watch the show lol) after the winter till now. I saw a cool image Ryan Maue posted on Twitter of the winds associated with tomorrow's Nor'easter. This thing looks like a hurricane. There have been a lot of nor'easters this year. My sister-in-law lives in the northwest quadrant. Two feet plus and they already have had like 4'. Sick, man. Just sick. Drifts will be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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