John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Try not to get my hopes up but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still five days out as this won't arrive until tonight. A lot can change and 100% will change. MRX is just playing it safe as much variability is still left with this potential storm. If the models hold today, they will have to move off that spot. But for now, they have time to play it safe. Probably not a bad move, and they have some model support for that position. Next two model suites are crucial, and they know this. FWIW, still looks pretty icy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I put the bad mouth on the storm this morning...you all owe me. Mr Bob almost cancelled winter, so we owe him as well. Can some yahoo post a pic of the mean and control? Or mail it to me? I expect recompense if this storm delivers....Thanks. Small bills or bottles of bourbon will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hugging the ukie with you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro seems to be slower..not sure if it's not the outlier right now,while the other models seem to be somewhere in Al/Ga the Euro is still in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I expect recompense if this storm delivers....Thanks. Small bills or bottles of bourbon will do.Buffalo Trace acceptable, Bob? It's my bourbon of choice! Of course if it's a torch you get Mad Dog 20/20...maybe a nice Thursday vintage that's been aged 8 hours on the truck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Clay Travis posted the ECMWF model. Of course. The one with 19" in BNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Clay Travis posted the ECMWF model. Of course. The one with 19" in BNA. Lol, link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Clay Travis is a schmuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 https://twitter.com/claytravisbgid/status/565906148147335168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Need a Molson truck for that. Ice to rain/thunder to snow. QPF is a drinking binge, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thank you Boston blizzard on day 3. Do your thing for us. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thank you Boston blizzard on day 3. Do your thing for us. :-) 966 964 low, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 966 964 low, heh. You can see it at hour 72 really putting the skids on the high just to it's west. It's REALLY helping us here. You can also see the return moisture response in the southern plains around this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Remind me to say winter cancel (and mean it) in December next year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Remind me to say winter cancel (and mean it) in December next year.... LOL, gotcha. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's been a long time since I have seen this much cold around and this much potential for such a widespread area. I hope we can reel this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So it's looking like HSV is right on the snow/ice line. Am I seeing that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So it's looking like HSV is right on the snow/ice line. Am I seeing that correctly? Depends on the modeling. Northern AL has a good shot at wintry weather. How much snow, how much ice, and how much rain is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So it's looking like HSV is right on the snow/ice line. Am I seeing that correctly? You can check again, but on the Euro text output that Jax posted, it showed something like .56 QPF for HSV with slightly below freezing surface temps and something like -2 850s. That should be a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hope Bob doesn't mind me posting this, but I have some forums setup to use as a backup for the Tennessee Valley if and when the americanwx site goes down. You guys feel free to register an account over there and post away during an outage here. http://volwx.boards.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Amen John, those guys in the NC never use qualifiers for their back yard, and then they pout when they don't get all snows storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agh, I really felt like the models had this dead ringer until 18z, I am in TRI and really hoping 18z is outlier. But there will be hope for this no matter what.....It's been my experience that the actual storm is usually off plus/minus 50-100 miles to the north or south then modeled...50 miles can make a big difference in a storm like this imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anyone worrying about a pinpoint solution at 5 days out is going to get an ulcer....IN the wordsletters of Aaron Rodgers....R-E-L-A-X. The setup is good....wait for a consensus of models going the wrong way to throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anyone worrying about a pinpoint solution at 5 days out is going to get an ulcer....IN the wordsletters of Aaron Rodgers....R-E-L-A-X. The setup is good....wait for a consensus of models going the wrong way to throw it out. Bob that was a great quote. It was rather funny when Rodgers took so much flack for saying that, it's a football game number 1. Number 2, it was like the 3rd game of the season...I thought it was great. I think the main immediate worry is less about the track but trends in QPF...some of our prior runs have been exceptionally juicy, although not unheard of, it's been a long time since Tennessee received statewide 6-10 inch snows. Perhaps a more reasonable trend might be a redux of QPF but the weenie in me obviously hopes otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bob that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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