Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Got a boomer south of Maryville right now. Thunder in winter something something...snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It would be cool to hear thunder again. I've almost forgotten what it sounds like it's been so long. I don't think we've had thunder since October or maybe even September. Don't believe I've ever gone so long without hearing at least one or two rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS rolls the dice, kicks the can down the road, and comes up with this Fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z is is cold as he!#....I mean freezing, wall-to-wall cold. Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z is is cold as he!#....I mean freezing, wall-to-wall cold. Except for the one 24-hour period when the precip comes thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 CoachB, I just want some wood stove WX. I think it stays cold through March. In some ways, for the upper valley, winter is just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 CoachB, I just want some wood stove WX. I think it stays cold through March. In some ways, for the upper valley, winter is just beginning. Carver I think you are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Damn,what a different run..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS definitely is an option - not a good one. Going to very difficult for that Arctic air to get uprooted out of the valley. Has ice written all over that. Looks like it sets-up a nice pattern afterwards FWIW. That northwest shift has been present all winter. I would feel more comfortable if the Euro was about 200 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS definitely is an option - not a good one. Going to very difficult for that Arctic air to get uprooted out of the valley. Has ice written all over that. Looks like it sets-up a nice pattern afterwards FWIW. That northwest shift has been present all winter. I would feel more comfortable if the Euro was about 200 miles south. Interesting to see the 850 freezing line hanging out in Mexico. Also interesting to see potential flakes flying in Orlando. Too bad it's dry for us but as long as cold like that is being shown I'm encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 If the suppressed storm system doesn't verify, I highly doubt the cold temps to our south have staying power. I think we are about to be placed on the battle lines between rain and snow. Plenty of cold and a more active southern stream. We will win some and lose some. I REALLY wish this had started at the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The trend this entire winter is for all the models to look spectacular for a few runs around this far out then fall apart. Hopefully we can buck that trend and actually get a decent storm for once. It's probably going to have to be falling for me to be fully sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Freezing line to South beach. Going to screw-up my snook fishing this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 WEENIE RUN!!! WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WEENIE RUN!!! WEENIE RUN!!! I am so tired of this Winter. What is the issue with the modeling that we cant fix? This is yet another storm that was proged to be a snow maker for the southeast that will cut to the lakes. Can someone hazard a guess why the error in the models havent been corrected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am so tired of this Winter. What is the issue with the modeling that we cant fix? This is yet another storm that was proged to be a snow maker for the southeast that will cut to the lakes. Can someone hazard a guess why the error in the models havent been corrected? Oh wait, no, looks like a front will come through and it will snow south of middle tn, yet again, unbelievable, did I mention that I am tired of this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Next Tuesday's system looks like a "no go." Taking the same track as the Boston blizzard. What does catch me eye is split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Next Tuesday's system looks like a "no go." Taking the same track as the Boston blizzard. What does catch me eye is split flow. I agree. Onto 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am so tired of this Winter. What is the issue with the modeling that we cant fix? This is yet another storm that was proged to be a snow maker for the southeast that will cut to the lakes. Can someone hazard a guess why the error in the models havent been corrected? Your expectations are wrong in the 7 day window....The models are not supposed to be used for pinpoint forecasting in that time frame. The pattern has not been right all winter for snow here and that has not changed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It has actually been a very stable pattern this winter, especially for the last 10 days to two weeks. It looks to continue, just ask anyone from Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I will say this, at least we are seeing interesting possibilities on the models now. That couldn't be said for a large chunk of this boring winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 6z GFS Fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It has the Nashville area snow hole. That alone makes it a more believable snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Freezing line to South beach. Going to screw-up my snook fishing this summer. Carvers Gap is taking his talents to South Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 any bets on the Euro ensembles? Is the mean north and west of the OP, in line with the OP, or south/east of the OP? Give it your best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 any bets on the Euro ensembles? Is the mean north and west of the OP, in line with the OP, or south/east of the OP? Give it your best guess. I'll take northwest for $200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm feeling northwest too. Anybody seen the 12z UKMET? My maps haven't updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm feeling northwest too. Anybody seen the 12z UKMET? My maps haven't updated yet. I have seen the crappy maps, not the good stuff. Looks good at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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