Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Tennessee may be hiring a guy at OC that benched Tom Brady. FWIW, the CPC teleconnections look less than favorable this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We have gas heat but also a 1970's style wood burning fireplace in the downstairs den. It's nice to fire it up on special occasions. I buy freshly cut wood in the spring and it's usually cured enough to burn well by winter. It mostly gets used on camping trips but 8 or 10 times a season we'll burn some sticks to make the den cozy. I grew up with my folks relying exclusively on wood heat. It's a lot of work but if you're chilled to the bone it's the best way to warm up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Absolutely the worst run of the GFS all winter. Zero events to follow. Sigh. Euro is going to have to bring it or the gig may be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Absolutely the worst run of the GFS all winter. Zero events to follow. Sigh. Euro is going to have to bring it or the gig may be up. Well at least the Canadian gives us the goods for the early Feb storm. I would rather it be showing on the GFS or Euro, but at least it shows there is still potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z GGEM Fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z Euro Ensemble Mean: Control: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like we are back online. Tapatalk has been disabled though. 18z GFS is still in the crapper btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I can sign in on my phone but not my pc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wont let me log in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wont let me log in I'm on my IPad. Big nor'easter putting a load on the servers. This has been an interesting clipper. Instead of snow there has been thunderstorms with some reaching severe limits in Alabama earlier. Couple of cells rolling through the valley right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm on my IPad. Big nor'easter putting a load on the servers. This has been an interesting clipper. Instead of snow there has been thunderstorms with some reaching severe limits in Alabama earlier. Couple of cells rolling through the valley right now. Finally let me log in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Tonights GFS looks way much better,now we need the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hey guys. I've been reading in the winter thread, but since I still don't understand what I'm reading most of the time, I don't post. I thought I'd say hi and try to change our mojo. Especially for the end of this coming week through February. You guys taught me quite a bit last year and I had typed up all my notes and planned to study them in early fall. Someone (me) dumped a huge glass of tea right on my surge protector and blew out that computer. I've never backed up a computer in my life and always had a big IT Dept to do it for me at work, so all that is lost. There hasn't been any weather for me to check the models you all had given me links to, so I'm lost again. But I want some snow! I hope you all are well. I'm enjoying our basketball team, even though we didn't play so hot Saturday. I heard tonight that Donnie may weather this NCAA storm with just some suspensions, so that made me happy. Let it snow! I wish I was in NYC (as long as I kept electricity). So for now, I'm going to watch it on TV and enjoy that. I'm crossing my fingers for the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hey guys. I've been reading in the winter thread, but since I still don't understand what I'm reading most of the time, I don't post. I thought I'd say hi and try to change our mojo. Especially for the end of this coming week through February. You guys taught me quite a bit last year and I had typed up all my notes and planned to study them in early fall. Someone (me) dumped a huge glass of tea right on my surge protector and blew out that computer. I've never backed up a computer in my life and always had a big IT Dept to do it for me at work, so all that is lost. There hasn't been any weather for me to check the models you all had given me links to, so I'm lost again. But I want some snow! I hope you all are well. I'm enjoying our basketball team, even though we didn't play so hot Saturday. I heard tonight that Donnie may weather this NCAA storm with just some suspensions, so that made me happy. Let it snow! I wish I was in NYC (as long as I kept electricity). So for now, I'm going to watch it on TV and enjoy that. I'm crossing my fingers for the next few weeks! Good to see you Tabby. Like you I keep my head down and enjoy the disco between our more knowledgeable members...but I sure do appreciate their input. And like Greyhound mentioned in the pinned Fab Feb thread above, I sure do appreciate the fact that this subforum encourages debate and discussion in a friendly, respective manner. Wouldn't trade this group of folks for another on the forum! Might rent them out if the price is right though. edit: Forgot to mention that Coach DT is doing a great job with a team that has 9 scholarship players and was predicted pre-season to finish 13th in the SEC. These guys play hard and when they're on, they can give anyone a tough game. If he can weather the storm, I think CDT has an excellent future in Knoxville...even if he does look and sound a little like Edgar G. Robinson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It doesn't appear we are going to have server stability here anytime soon. I have some forums setup to use as a backup if anyone wants to participate: http://volwx.boards.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I know everyone expects this, but just to say they are trying to stay on top of it as best they can. I can tell you Wow's frustatration....every year we have an issue and try to learn from it and have fixes in place before the next big wave. And it always seems to be something new...At any rate, the nor'easter will be gone here soon and we will hopefully be okay for our potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 From a poster in the NYC sub-forum - "12"-20"+ from NENJ to ELI....big hit of course but nothing at all like what it was. Near 3 feet south of BOS Oh to have these problems today, sigh...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Been reading the boards,they are getting p'd off they aren't getting 3 ft.,i get p'd off we can't even get 1 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Even weatherbell's site is slow as molasses today. Weenies are bringin down the interwebs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Glad to see that the models vacant look for the last couple days for our february fun has come back to a more positive scenario, but has anyone noticed how juicy the radar returns look for that second little clipper coming south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ha ha, maybe by they time it gets to us. Good number of OBS from Paducah KY NWS taf sites reporting light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MRX SWS: ...A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE AS COLDER AIR MOVED INTO THEREGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEPSOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ORFLURRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING.THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHERELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA LINE. HOWEVER...A DUSTING TO NEAR 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLYOVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONSOF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE INA FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF EASTTENNESSEE...AS WELL AS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTHCAROLINA.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FORFURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I stole this from Kevin over at tennesseewx. To say this Boston met is happy with the storm is a big understatement lol: */ HIGHLIGHTS... - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED! - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION */ OVERVIEW... HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY! KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR- 88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE. WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER OF SNOW ANTICIPATED. OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/ WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE NO MATTER IF YOU'RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW- REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE. */ PRECIPITATION-TYPE... CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. */ BLIZZARD... TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN 6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD / WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST. LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. */ WINDS... STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED. SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET / MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18z GFS Fantasy hour 240: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z GGEM Fantasy hour 222: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6z GFS Fantasy hour 240 (hits several frames before): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS Fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GFS strings out the system in our favor. I don't think this will be a cutter. May not be snow...but a cutter unlikely. That has been false all winter on the Euro. You see me checking the board at lunch...that should tell u something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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