stormtrackertf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great morning thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 For those hoping for some lake effect snow off of Lake Michigan Friday into Friday night, you'd probably find the 0z Euro interesting. The model phases the very potent northern stream vort max with a little southern stream feature over the Ohio Valley Friday evening, causing a very deep 500mb low to form over the OV Friday night that drifts southeast. This is still more extreme than most other solutions (I can't buy a northern stream vort max diving from WI to NC in 24 hours, the trough should still be a bit more progressive than that without a strong -NAO...the southern stream energy looks a bit weak for that kind of nuclear phase, although I guess the northern vort max is modeled to kick some butt), however, the general trend since 12z Sunday has been to slow down the trough a little bit (the 0z GFS ticked a bit slower too, but is nothing like the Euro due to not phasing the two pieces of energy), so some lake effect off of Lake Michigan isn't unreasonable IMO. There should be some light snow showers over most of MI and possibly WI as well, even outside of true lake effect areas, as the northern shortwave really looks intense and 850mb temps will be plenty cold enough. Looking a tiny bit at some finer details, the Euro still manages to strip moisture at 700mb and above pretty quickly Friday evening over Lake Michigan, however it does keep higher 850mb RHs in place for at least a good portion of Friday night looking at the E-Wall maps. Regardless, the window still looks kind of short. There's still good agreement on 850mb temps of -8C to -10C getting into northern Indiana briefly Friday night. In recent "early season" (lets say late October/early November) events off of Lake Erie, 850mb temps of around -7C have yielded good accums in any organized bands in the slightly higher terrain in NE Ohio. I'd have to think that if an intense band develops than 850mb temps of -8 to -10C would get some accums inland from Lake Michigan. The Euro appears to show some lake enhancement as early as Friday afternoon as some synoptic rain/snow moves through northern Indiana, with some light QPF during the 6-12z Saturday timeframe...so, about 18 hours or potential, with 12 of that being at night. That's with the slowest solution. I can see an argument for some light accums being possible though downwind from Lake Michigan, but with a such short duration it's iffy getting a good band to organize. Looking downwind of Lake Erie, the 0z Euro was actually so wound up that is pulls warm air in from the east into NE Ohio and is too warm for any accumulating snow there (although, it drops synoptic snow on most of the state, except for the NE corner). Although the 0z Euro solution was pretty extreme. I think a solution between the 0z GFS (doesn't close off the 500mb trough ever, although it does show it getting a neutral tilt before hitting the Appalachians) and the 0z Euro (closes off the 500mb trough over the Ohio Valley and drops is extremely far southeast Friday night into Saturday) is reasonable. This is due to the fact that there's no real -NAO (suggesting that the trough will be pretty transient), a very strong northern stream vort max (suggesting that something interesting may happen if it can phase with that dinky little piece of sub-tropical jet energy on Friday). That's iffy as far west as Lake Michigan, but might be more interesting downwind of Lake Erie (I know, I'm a weenie). Regardless, I think that the recent trend of showing a slightly farther west trough and very strong vort max dropping through the lakes supports the first flakes for many in MI and WI (especially the northwestern half of WI)...for areas outside of the Snowbelts in Ohio and Indiana some flakes are possible, but it will depend on exactly how far west the vort max drops down. The vort max looks too far east for Chicago, barely, but we'll see. Euro 96.gif Nice write up. First crack at this setup from the 12z NAM and it's advertising a robust lake response downwind of Lake Michigan. Problem of course is how warm low level temps will be. I should probably kick my own rear for posting the 84 hour NAM but only posting it to specifically show how it really has the marine air flooding inland. How cool it would get after this remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There's actually some CAPE on the forecast sounding for GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nice write up. First crack at this setup from the 12z NAM and it's advertising a robust lake response downwind of Lake Michigan. Problem of course is how warm low level temps will be. I should probably kick my own rear for posting the 84 hour NAM but only posting it to specifically show how it really has the marine air flooding inland. How cool it would get after this remains to be seen. namCGP_sfc_temp_084.gif Thanks. To be fair, the 12z NAM is somewhere between the GFS and Euro runs from last night, so I don't think it's totally unreasonable to look at right now, even if it is the 84 hour NAM. I'd like to see how the GFS and Euro handle things over the next day though (one of them will be wrong). It would be nice if NW Indiana had higher terrain downwind of the lake to block how far inland the lake influenced air gets. I'd have to think it would get cool enough for some minor accums inland off of Lake Michigan if a good band develops, but the soundings over the lake do show a good amount of dry air (although they also show a pretty decent amount of CAPE too), so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Thanks. To be fair, the 12z NAM is somewhere between the GFS and Euro runs from last night, so I don't think it's totally unreasonable to look at right now, even if it is the 84 hour NAM. I'd like to see how the GFS and Euro handle things over the next day though (one of them will be wrong). It would be nice if NW Indiana had higher terrain downwind of the lake to block how far inland the lake influenced air gets. I'd have to think it would get cool enough for some minor accums inland off of Lake Michigan if a good band develops, but the soundings over the lake do show a good amount of dry air (although they also show a pretty decent amount of CAPE too), so we'll see. Yeah there's not much of that, unless the Valparaiso Moraine counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sunny, but quite breezy outside today. Gusts approaching 30mph in Racine. Lot of leaves getting knocked down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sunny, but quite breezy outside today. Gusts approaching 30mph in Racine. Lot of leaves getting knocked down today. Definitely breezy here as well. But I will take 72 and sunny! Got the windows open and the breeze feels great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Made it up to 78 here yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah there's not much of that, unless the Valparaiso Moraine counts. We actually get up above 800 ft ASL here (even if that is only ~250 ft above the lake surface). Typically even in the very early season I think we stay snow here; Chesterton, not so much. Meanwhile, check out a dProg/dt of the last 5-6 runs of the GFS at 0z Sat. As you and OHweather and perhaps a few others were suggesting might happen, the GFS continues slowing down the pattern and strengthening the northern s/w, and now is phasing it entirely with the OV s/w. Barring temp concerns (not that they don't actually exist, but if we temporarily ignore them) I think chances are increasing for decent LES. Verbatim on the 12z GFS, even some of IL would get in on it, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We actually get up above 800 ft ASL here (even if that is only ~250 ft above the lake surface). Typically even in the very early season I think we stay snow here; Chesterton, not so much. Meanwhile, check out a dProg/dt of the last 5-6 runs of the GFS at 0z Sat. As you and OHweather and perhaps a few others were suggesting might happen, the GFS continues slowing down the pattern and strengthening the northern s/w, and now is phasing it entirely with the OV s/w. Barring temp concerns (not that they don't actually exist, but if we temporarily ignore them) I think chances are increasing for decent LES. Verbatim on the 12z GFS, even some of IL would get in on it, it looks like. I'm gonna have to dig into some of the known early LES cases to see what 850 mb temps were like...maybe it can serve as a guide. I know that Nov 1996 had temps that were colder. Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is wind. The mixed layer flow looks fairly unidirectional but it's howling on the GFS, which has a band of 50 kt 925 mb winds at 00z Sat before weakening. It'll be interesting to see what kind of effect that has on overall organization, but it may mean very deep inland penetration. If the GFS is right, there may be a window of 50-60 mph wind gusts near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm gonna have to dig into some of the known early LES cases to see what 850 mb temps were like...maybe it can serve as a guide. I know that Nov 1996 had temps that were colder. Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is wind. The mixed layer flow looks fairly unidirectional but it's howling on the GFS, which has a band of 50 kt 925 mb winds at 00z Sat before weakening. It'll be interesting to see what kind of effect that has on overall organization, but it may mean very deep inland penetration. If the GFS is right, there may be a window of 50-60 mph wind gusts near the lake. 11/14-15/1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 ILN introduces snow showers in the zone forecast friday night for the first time this fall. MONTGOMERY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAYTON354 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOWSHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 11/14-15/1997. Based on a quick look, 850 mb temps for most of the 14th-15th look pretty similar to what's progged for this weekend. 850's did get colder later on the 15th into the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro still has good 850 mb RH hanging back over Lake Michigan at 12z Saturday, in addition to 850 mb temps around -8C. That is significantly colder than the GFS at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 looking more favorable for accumulating snow here thur night/Friday. as of now, 3-5" in the higher terrain here west of Marquette. MQT mentioning in HWO Friday morning commute possibly affected. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF JUST OVER A TRACE UP TO3-4IN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THECOOL/HIGHER ELEVATION OF W AND N CENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TOFINE-TUNE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS...AS A QUICKBURST OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS. KEPT THE MENTION OFSNOW IN THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS. my mom and pop version of Kruppy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 18z NAM cranked up the winds much like what the GFS was showing on the 12z run. Could be a good show for you guys near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If snow does occur at ORD on Friday, it will be the first Halloween since 1993 to feature snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 18z GFS forecast sounding along the Chicago shoreline at 21z Friday. Steep low level lapse rates into 55 kts above the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Halloween looking brisk, that's for sure! Had an midnight high of 68°. Falling temps all day. Nice snowman Bo! Enjoy your first snowfall coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Halloween looking brisk, that's for sure! Had an midnight high of 68°. Falling temps all day. Nice snowman Bo! Enjoy your first snowfall coming. snow showers this morning creating a little white on the ground but a bigger deal tomorrow night. really excited to see an accumulating snow! here's MQT's latest thinking, although in their AFD, totals 6"+ are not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 after last winter, it's just cruel to be getting off to such a brutal start again. I really don't need to see flakes twice before november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 my mom and pop version of Kruppy photo.JPG Dude, that snow man is going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gonna have a little chat with my neighbors to the north and east who's lawns are caked with leaves before friday and its 40 mph winds show up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gonna have a little chat with my neighbors to the north and east who's lawns are caked with leaves before friday and its 40 mph winds show up.... Haha! Over half of my trees are bare now. It's inevitable that I get some of the neighbors leaves and some of their's end up in my yard! Only 49° for a high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Down to 31 already, which is less than the point had for tonight. Clouds rolling in from the northwest should stop the fall after midnight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Officially hit 32 at MKE this morning despite the lowest hourly reading being 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 30˚ at LAF this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 30˚ at LAF this morning. What a difference a stratus deck makes, only bottomed out at 43° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lot of frost this morning. Hit 31* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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