josh_4184 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 What a strange morning, when I woke up I heard thunder not really a big deal, but when its only 35 degrees out it tends to be more of a surprise. Then on my way to work was treated to a nice cloud to ground lightning show. Again not normally a big deal but when the surface temps are only a few degrees above freezing very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Dews have surged from the 30s late yesterday eve to near 60 this morning. That's a pretty impressive surge of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 congrats MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 As far as lake effect potential off Lake Michigan this weekend, there's a glaring negating factor and that's dry air above ~850 mb. If the synoptic evolution changes then perhaps more moisture can hang on aloft for longer but we'll see. At this point it looks like it's going to be largely dependent on moisture flux from the lake. One potential positive factor is a possible Lake Superior connection for a time. Though that's a negative, I'm not as worried about that as I am about the PBL being too warm to support snow, or the window for LES production being too short to support a nice band. The core of the cold air is pretty transient, after all. We really only have about 12 hours in the good -7 C or colder air so let's see. fwiw, the 06z GFS didn't really have a precip signal of Lake Michigan, but but did have a 0.01" contour on Huron and Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Though that's a negative, I'm not as worried about that as I am about the PBL being too warm to support snow, or the window for LES production being too short to support a nice band. The core of the cold air is pretty transient, after all. We really only have about 12 hours in the good -7 C or colder air so let's see. fwiw, the 06z GFS didn't really have a precip signal of Lake Michigan, but but did have a 0.01" contour on Huron and Erie. Good points. I'm hesitant to get too bogged down in details yet but I took a quick look at some locations near the lake and freezing levels/wbz heights are borderline for snow (this is per GFS), especially during the daylight hours on Friday. Layers near the surface are toasty. I think a potential outcome could be any heavier bursts of precip resulting in snow but having a hard time sticking with 2m temps being safely above freezing. I think the thing to hope for as far as trying to get a more impressive setup would be for the main system to dig farther southwest, slow the timing down a bit and bring the core of the coldest air over the lake during the overnight hours Fri into Sat. We're 4 days out so it's within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 IND calling for 80 in Indianapolis. Up to 80 last hour... 83??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Up to 80 last hour... 83??? I don't think they make it. If it were summer with longer daylight then I'd say good chance to go up another 3 degrees. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Only the 18th day that IND has reached 80+ in the final week of October and the first time since 10/28/1999 (records back to 1871). Thanks to Tim for the assist with that one. Edit: only the 3rd time in the past 50 years. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 top shelf day, shame it's a monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 congrats MI USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_108.gif worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Incredible diurnal temperature swings across Ohio today of greater than 40 degrees across many stations. Several stations that hit freezing this morning are now in the mid to upper 70s (PHD and AKR). Toledo hit a low of 34 this morning and has recovered to 77 so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Maxed out at 71 here today after starting at 35, a very nice day thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 70F here, no wind and full sun this afternoon...clouds and maybe some rain this even... gorgeous day. Weird still having shorts/tshirt on. Yesterday was also awesome... After the quick cold blast Fri/Sat return flow is already bringing mild air back into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 36 degree temperature upswing in late October is pretty impressive. Currently 73℉ at DET. 77℉ at Monroe. Both started the morning in the 30's. ARB is up to 76℉, a 42 degree jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hamilton, Ohio (HAO) is thus far the biggest winner in the diurnal swing today. After a morning low of 38 they recovered to 85 - a 47 degree spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hamilton, Ohio (HAO) is thus far the biggest winner in the diurnal swing today. After a morning low of 38 they recovered to 85 - a 47 degree spread.Crazy. Summer and winter in the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A thunderstorm just popped up overhead, nice lightning and a boomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Some high temps across the region today: St. Louis: 84 Indianapolis: 80 Columbus: 79 Chicago: 77 South Bend: 76 Milwaukee: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 sharp temp contrast in the sub-forum. looks like a beautiful Autumn afternoon in the S lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some high temps across the region today: St. Louis: 84 Indianapolis: 80 Columbus: 79 Chicago: 77 South Bend: 76 Milwaukee: 75 Probably the last 80 here till April or May. That is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 KARB went from a low of 26°F overnight to a high of 76°F this afternoon. A 50 degree temperature spike in around 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Probably the last 80 here till April or May. That is depressing. Could be. It's all but guaranteed that it was the last one of this year as there are no more 80s in sight and the record latest occurrence is November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 KARB went from a low of 26°F overnight to a high of 76°F this afternoon. A 50 degree temperature spike in around 12 hours. Wow. DTW had a high/low today of 72F/36F. Monroe was 79F/34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Topped out at 75° here. A breezy day at that and still is at this hour. Seemed like a late summer day, minus the blowing leaves. Snapped this photo this morning as the sun was rising through the mid and upper level clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good points. I'm hesitant to get too bogged down in details yet but I took a quick look at some locations near the lake and freezing levels/wbz heights are borderline for snow (this is per GFS), especially during the daylight hours on Friday. Layers near the surface are toasty. I think a potential outcome could be any heavier bursts of precip resulting in snow but having a hard time sticking with 2m temps being safely above freezing. I think the thing to hope for as far as trying to get a more impressive setup would be for the main system to dig farther southwest, slow the timing down a bit and bring the core of the coldest air over the lake during the overnight hours Fri into Sat. We're 4 days out so it's within the realm of possibility. dprog/dt of the GFS is showing this trend over the past 2 or 3 runs. Will it maintain or continue in the next few days? Overall I'd feel better about this setup if 850 mb temps were a bit colder than currently shown. Not that delta Ts won't be high enough as is but there's a lot of lake warmth to deal with and the fetch will be going down the length of the lake. It could be a struggle to get the low levels to cool sufficiently even after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hit 78 today. Was hoping for a little thunder tonight but the system ended up being pretty benign. Hopefully the last half of November brings some decent weather action back to the MW. Looks pretty zzzz for the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Still 71°F in the city, making for a rather uncomfortable sleeping night with the humidity in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Surprisingly intense SVR-warned cell crossing the WI/MI border. 3.56" MESH and look at that LSR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 For those hoping for some lake effect snow off of Lake Michigan Friday into Friday night, you'd probably find the 0z Euro interesting. The model phases the very potent northern stream vort max with a little southern stream feature over the Ohio Valley Friday evening, causing a very deep 500mb low to form over the OV Friday night that drifts southeast. This is still more extreme than most other solutions (I can't buy a northern stream vort max diving from WI to NC in 24 hours, the trough should still be a bit more progressive than that without a strong -NAO...the southern stream energy looks a bit weak for that kind of nuclear phase, although I guess the northern vort max is modeled to kick some butt), however, the general trend since 12z Sunday has been to slow down the trough a little bit (the 0z GFS ticked a bit slower too, but is nothing like the Euro due to not phasing the two pieces of energy), so some lake effect off of Lake Michigan isn't unreasonable IMO. There should be some light snow showers over most of MI and possibly WI as well, even outside of true lake effect areas, as the northern shortwave really looks intense and 850mb temps will be plenty cold enough. Looking a tiny bit at some finer details, the Euro still manages to strip moisture at 700mb and above pretty quickly Friday evening over Lake Michigan, however it does keep higher 850mb RHs in place for at least a good portion of Friday night looking at the E-Wall maps. Regardless, the window still looks kind of short. There's still good agreement on 850mb temps of -8C to -10C getting into northern Indiana briefly Friday night. In recent "early season" (lets say late October/early November) events off of Lake Erie, 850mb temps of around -7C have yielded good accums in any organized bands in the slightly higher terrain in NE Ohio. I'd have to think that if an intense band develops than 850mb temps of -8 to -10C would get some accums inland from Lake Michigan. The Euro appears to show some lake enhancement as early as Friday afternoon as some synoptic rain/snow moves through northern Indiana, with some light QPF during the 6-12z Saturday timeframe...so, about 18 hours or potential, with 12 of that being at night. That's with the slowest solution. I can see an argument for some light accums being possible though downwind from Lake Michigan, but with a such short duration it's iffy getting a good band to organize. Looking downwind of Lake Erie, the 0z Euro was actually so wound up that is pulls warm air in from the east into NE Ohio and is too warm for any accumulating snow there (although, it drops synoptic snow on most of the state, except for the NE corner). Although the 0z Euro solution was pretty extreme. I think a solution between the 0z GFS (doesn't close off the 500mb trough ever, although it does show it getting a neutral tilt before hitting the Appalachians) and the 0z Euro (closes off the 500mb trough over the Ohio Valley and drops is extremely far southeast Friday night into Saturday) is reasonable. This is due to the fact that there's no real -NAO (suggesting that the trough will be pretty transient), a very strong northern stream vort max (suggesting that something interesting may happen if it can phase with that dinky little piece of sub-tropical jet energy on Friday). That's iffy as far west as Lake Michigan, but might be more interesting downwind of Lake Erie (I know, I'm a weenie). Regardless, I think that the recent trend of showing a slightly farther west trough and very strong vort max dropping through the lakes supports the first flakes for many in MI and WI (especially the northwestern half of WI)...for areas outside of the Snowbelts in Ohio and Indiana some flakes are possible, but it will depend on exactly how far west the vort max drops down. The vort max looks too far east for Chicago, barely, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The Euro for Friday night is getting closer to some snow here, at the very least it could be a bit of a mix especially since the precipitation arrives at sunset. Amazing considering it is in the upper 60s and low 70s right now locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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