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October 2014 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer

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made it to 50 today but has since cooled to 46.  took some sunset shots since it's rare to see one this time of year it seems. sunny and 57 tomorrow before the rain sets in.

 

Time for my weather posting break to be over.  I know I am quoting an older post but I congrats on your big move to the UP.  We we in the UP this summer.  Didn't make to the west side this time but staying in Muskallonge Lake SP just east of Grand Marais.  You are going to love it up there (pending winters final results).

 

I saw the posts about Tug Hill verse the UP.  I personally would take you position over Tug Hill too but honestly would love to see one of those Tug Hill intense 100"+ events.  One thing about the UP is LES hits from many wind different directions where Tug Hill is much more wind specific.  In fact the Keweenaw gets LES from WSW winds all the way to ESE winds.  In fact a couple of the biggest events came on E to ENE winds.  When I was there we got 8"+ an hour with E wind a couple E wind events.  We had a 5 day stalled out pattern of E winds which gave us ~75" in 5 days :)

 

I agree with you about the UP population ... got to love it :) 

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I think we might be a little late for natural vitamin D production now. Maybe a small window during the middle of the day.

 

Nice day after the clouds and haze broke after lunch. Made it to 62°.

 

18z GFS has a bit more of a trough at the end of next week now.

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I think we might be a little late for natural vitamin D production now. Maybe a small window during the middle of the day.

Nice day after the clouds and haze broke after lunch. Made it to 62°.

18z GFS has a bit more of a trough at the end of next week now.

Snow showers in the forecast from Wednesday on through the end if the week. Might see some light accums.
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Yep have been watching that too. Some runs have had a nice NNE fetch 

 

 

One thing we know with relatively good confidence is that delta Ts will be good...I mean, even being conservative and going with something like -4C with 850 mb temps would yield values in the upper teens given water temps in the mid to upper 50s.  Bigger questions at this point are duration and exact placement. 

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Yup, the potential for some nice early-season LES is definitely there.  Whether it's the GFS or the Euro, 850 temps are around -8 C at the coldest point, so the fuel is there.

 

Just comparing the 0z runs (since the 12z ECM isn't all the way out yet for us plebians), the Euro is more amplified and hence a bit slower with the s/w.  It therefore also allows the ridge to build over the Low to the north, keeping Chicago and even WI open to potential LES with a NE fetch.  The GFS doesn't necessarily say game over for those areas, but it looks more classic, with areas due south of the Lake favored.

 

Other thing to consider is that both models (as of 0z anyway) have the core of the air mass passing overhead during peak diurnal heating on Friday.  It is still October, after all, so it could also very well be a rain or melting snow set-up, perhaps becoming a 5:1 paste by the end.

 

Regardless, I'm excited!

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The Euro looks odd, although it was the first model to show the two cut off lows over the eastern US over the last two weeks (the GFS and CMC were too progressive with both initially), so I wouldn't completely discount it. It looks to get cold for 2-3 days across the Great Lakes, but how much moisture is around and what the wind direction is, and how long the cold sticks around, will depend on if we get the system to cut off like the Euro shows. The 12z GFS and CMC trended that direction a little bit, but are still more progressive and not as eyebrow raising for areas downwind of the lakes.

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Fantastic day out there with temps in the low 70s and a nice breeze.  Been an excellent week to have off for vacation.

 

Here's the last shots from me as far as foliage.  Getting past peak now in many areas around here.  Shot these this morning a little north of Morrison IL at Rockwood State Park at Lake Carlton. 

 

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Yup, the potential for some nice early-season LES is definitely there.  Whether it's the GFS or the Euro, 850 temps are around -8 C at the coldest point, so the fuel is there.

 

Just comparing the 0z runs (since the 12z ECM isn't all the way out yet for us plebians), the Euro is more amplified and hence a bit slower with the s/w.  It therefore also allows the ridge to build over the Low to the north, keeping Chicago and even WI open to potential LES with a NE fetch.  The GFS doesn't necessarily say game over for those areas, but it looks more classic, with areas due south of the Lake favored.

 

Other thing to consider is that both models (as of 0z anyway) have the core of the air mass passing overhead during peak diurnal heating on Friday.  It is still October, after all, so it could also very well be a rain or melting snow set-up, perhaps becoming a 5:1 paste by the end.

 

Regardless, I'm excited!

 

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how much snow will come out of this setup...it could very well be more of a mixy event as you alluded to.  Not unprecedented to get LES off of southern Lake Michigan in October/very early November though.  Certainly would want to be a bit inland for this one.

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FWIW, I went back about 35 years and found very few significant lake effect snow events off southern Lake Michigan (and affecting Indiana) so early in the year.  By significant I mean at least a few inches.  There was 10/8/2000 but the heaviest totals with that actually occurred just across the IL border.  Then there was 11/9-11/11/1996 (10.4" at SBN) but other than that, didn't really find anything noteworthy.  Did find some occurrences that were more in mid or late November.  I'd have to do some cross checking to make sure I'm not missing something.

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FWIW, I went back about 35 years and found very few significant lake effect snow events off southern Lake Michigan (and affecting Indiana) so early in the year.  By significant I mean at least a few inches.  There was 10/8/2000 but the heaviest totals with that actually occurred just across the IL border.  Then there was 11/9-11/11/1996 (10.4" at SBN) but other than that, didn't really find anything noteworthy.  Did find some occurrences that were more in mid or late November.  I'd have to do some cross checking to make sure I'm not missing something.

 

Try early Nov. 1966.

 

I don't have all the data in front of me, but 9.5" somewhere SE of the lake on the 3rd (and 13.0" somewhere in the NE zone, so near Traverse City).  Our simulation has an oscillatory single band: http://fujita.valpo.edu/LES_cases/1966-11-01/dbz.pdf

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Try early Nov. 1966.

 

I don't have all the data in front of me, but 9.5" somewhere SE of the lake on the 3rd (and 13.0" somewhere in the NE zone, so near Traverse City).  Our simulation has an oscillatory single band: http://fujita.valpo.edu/LES_cases/1966-11-01/dbz.pdf

 

 

6.1" at SBN and 5" in Laporte.  There was a synoptic system in the mix but it looks like most of the snow with that fell farther east. 

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1966_nov_2_snowfall_contour.gif

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1966_nov_3_snowfall_contour.gif

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Made it to 70° today. First 70° since October 2nd.

 

I remember LES being reported around November 5th or so in this area before, but if it did come next weekend, that would be pretty early!

 

More fabulous pictures Cyclone!

 

:thumbsup:

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