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October 2014 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer

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Bret Anderson and his classic spray can forecasts are a complete torch for november.

 

This is probably pretty accurate for the first week of the month, I wouldn't try forecasting beyond that.

 

If this pattern was in place during December, this forum would be in full weenie meltdown.

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I have worms everywhere....

I look forward to the winter's version of the last few days...minus the worms

 

Haha. Not too many here, but a few.

 

Steady rain moved back in here. Breezy with temps slowly falling.

 

---

Very colorful tree Snow Freak! I've taken pictures of trees in the rain as well. Would have done it today, but it was too dark by the time I got out of work.

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Yesterday (10/13) was the 30-year average date for FWA to hit 32°.  I noticed that the seven day point doesn't have us getting below 37°, so I had to check out the latest freeze date and found out that it was 11/24/1931! (The latest 28° date is 11/25/1931)

 

Guess I don't have to worry about breaking that one for awhile.

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Yesterday (10/13) was the 30-year average date for FWA to hit 32°.  I noticed that the seven day point doesn't have us getting below 37°, so I had to check out the latest freeze date and found out that it was 11/24/1931! (The latest 28° date is 11/25/1931)

 

Guess I don't have to worry about breaking that one for awhile.

Detroits latest first freeze isnt until 11/15, so we have a while too. DTWs lowest so far is 35F, though I see a freeze a decent possibility Sat night.

 

20 latest first freezes on record

Nov 15, 1915 (30F)

Nov 15, 1946 (31F)

Nov 14, 1918 (32F)

Nov 13, 1916 (31F)

Nov 11, 1897 (32F)

Nov 11, 1932 (27F)

Nov 10, 1956 (26F)

Nov 08, 1900 (27F)

Nov 08, 1985 (29F)

Nov 08, 2004 (31F)

Nov 07, 2003 (28F)

Nov 06, 1886 (32F)

Nov 06, 1931 (32F)

Nov 05, 1921 (31F)

Nov 05, 1927 (31F)

Nov 04, 1881 (32F)

Nov 04, 1919 (32F)

Nov 04, 1950 (30F)

Nov 04, 1953 (31F)

Nov 04, 1961 (31F)

Nov 04, 1998 (29F)

 

Though the longterm average date of the first freeze is October 20th, I was a bit surprised to see that 30 times in 140 years of record the first freeze was in November. The most startling period had to be 1915-1918, when 3 of the 4 years saw the first freeze in mid-November (11-15-15, 11-13-16, 10-20-17, 11-14-18)

 

Looking chronologically at years when the first freeze was in November...

1877

 

1881

1882

1886

 

1897

 

1900

 

1912

1915

1916

1918

1919

 

1921

1924

1927

 

1931

1932

1938

 

1946

 

1950

1953

1956

 

1961

1963

 

1971

 

1985

 

1994

1998

 

2003

2004

 

2010

 

By contrast, the 20 earliest first freezes...

Sept 22, 1974 (30F)

Sept 26, 1883 (30F)

Sept 29, 1942 (32F)

Sept 30, 1899 (30F)

Oct 01, 1947 (31F)

Oct 02, 1984 (31F)

Oct 03, 1888 (30F)

Oct 04, 1901 (32F)

Oct 05, 1965 (31F)

Oct 06, 1935 (30F)

Oct 06, 1958 (32F)

Oct 07, 1952 (31F)

Oct 07, 1964 (32F)

Oct 08, 1889 (25F)

Oct 08, 1896 (31F)

Oct 08, 2001 (32F)

Oct 09, 1876 (29F)

Oct 09, 1895 (32F)

Oct 09, 1972 (32F)

Oct 09, 1978 (32F)

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Cloud bank sat over the area the whole day...could see the clear blue skies just to the west all morning...by one or so the sun was far enough west that i finally got back into some sunshine...this evening was beautiful...amazing how little the clouds moved today...   I'd say colors are peaking right now here...Minnesota bluffs are beautiful.

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Detroits latest first freeze isnt until 11/15, so we have a while too. DTWs lowest so far is 35F, though I see a freeze a decent possibility Sat night.

 

Though the longterm average date of the first freeze is October 20th, I was a bit surprised to see that 30 times in 140 years of record the first freeze was in November. The most startling period had to be 1915-1918, when 3 of the 4 years saw the first freeze in mid-November (11-15-15, 11-13-16, 10-20-17, 11-14-18)

 

Do you know what the 30-year average is for Detroit.  I find it interesting that the average 30-year date across Northern IN is October 15, give or take a couple of days, while yours is almost a week later.  I haven't looked up the long term average for FWA.

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Had a brighter patch of clouds pass over a little while ago, but since then the ceiling dropped back down and the fog started to reform.

I would say now that the color is getting close to 60%. Peak should occur by the end of next week into the following week.

 

Few Autumn pics from the last week.

 

10257928_10205214924879614_1840132792638

 

10511151_10205214924839613_5094044398659

 

10426664_10205214925239623_6340894023626

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^ love that Ash tree in the first pic, Geos.

 

persistent ne/upslope  flow off the lake kept mist/fog here all day, thick at times.  46 and a little fog  currently, but still decent out.  no fall color left at all. guess the next step is snow.  a little in the forecast fri/night/sat.

 

 

 

 

 

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Thanks Bo!

Yeah looks like you don't have many leaves on the trees anymore. Those pictures are almost mystical looking with the haze. Someday I'm going to live in a more rural area. 

 

Got a little sun today, but it didn't last that long. About 57° for a high.

 

Another maple tree in full color.

 

post-7389-0-90730200-1413503833_thumb.jp

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Do you know what the 30-year average is for Detroit.  I find it interesting that the average 30-year date across Northern IN is October 15, give or take a couple of days, while yours is almost a week later.  I haven't looked up the long term average for FWA.

Actually...when I looked it up again, the 140-yr avg was Oct 21st and the 1981-2010 avg is Oct 20th. Its really not that unheard of, since this is a more populated area, for areas away from town to get the first freeze well before the official station.

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Thanks Bo!

Yeah looks like you don't have many leaves on the trees anymore. Those pictures are almost mystical looking with the haze. Someday I'm going to live in a more rural area. 

 

Got a little sun today, but it didn't last that long. About 57° for a high.

 

Another maple tree in full color.

 

attachicon.gif20141016_172756 (2).jpg

Nice pics Geos! Driving home from work Id have to say the trees are pretty much nearing peak. Should be a GORGEOUS week for some color hikes and pics!

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Detroits latest first freeze isnt until 11/15, so we have a while too. DTWs lowest so far is 35F, though I see a freeze a decent possibility Sat night.

 

20 latest first freezes on record

Nov 15, 1915 (30F)

Nov 15, 1946 (31F)

Nov 14, 1918 (32F)

Nov 13, 1916 (31F)

Nov 11, 1897 (32F)

Nov 11, 1932 (27F)

Nov 10, 1956 (26F)

Nov 08, 1900 (27F)

Nov 08, 1985 (29F)

Nov 08, 2004 (31F)

Nov 07, 2003 (28F)

Nov 06, 1886 (32F)

Nov 06, 1931 (32F)

Nov 05, 1921 (31F)

Nov 05, 1927 (31F)

Nov 04, 1881 (32F)

Nov 04, 1919 (32F)

Nov 04, 1950 (30F)

Nov 04, 1953 (31F)

Nov 04, 1961 (31F)

Nov 04, 1998 (29F)

 

Though the longterm average date of the first freeze is October 20th, I was a bit surprised to see that 30 times in 140 years of record the first freeze was in November. The most startling period had to be 1915-1918, when 3 of the 4 years saw the first freeze in mid-November (11-15-15, 11-13-16, 10-20-17, 11-14-18)

 

Looking chronologically at years when the first freeze was in November...

1877

 

1881

1882

1886

 

1897

 

1900

 

1912

1915

1916

1918

1919

 

1921

1924

1927

 

1931

1932

1938

 

1946

 

1950

1953

1956

 

1961

1963

 

1971

 

1985

 

1994

1998

 

2003

2004

 

2010

 

By contrast, the 20 earliest first freezes...

Sept 22, 1974 (30F)

Sept 26, 1883 (30F)

Sept 29, 1942 (32F)

Sept 30, 1899 (30F)

Oct 01, 1947 (31F)

Oct 02, 1984 (31F)

Oct 03, 1888 (30F)

Oct 04, 1901 (32F)

Oct 05, 1965 (31F)

Oct 06, 1935 (30F)

Oct 06, 1958 (32F)

Oct 07, 1952 (31F)

Oct 07, 1964 (32F)

Oct 08, 1889 (25F)

Oct 08, 1896 (31F)

Oct 08, 2001 (32F)

Oct 09, 1876 (29F)

Oct 09, 1895 (32F)

Oct 09, 1972 (32F)

Oct 09, 1978 (32F)

It's funny to me that 2004 was one of the latest freezes ever since that was one of the coolest summers I can remember. On the flip side, 1952 had one of the earliest yet it made it to 96°F on September 12th of that year for one of the latest 95°F+ days on record.

I haven't seen any frost yet in my neighborhood, even on the cars. The lowest it's gotten is 39°F, but it looks like tomorrow night will be awfully close to freezing.

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