Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 So after ten days: ____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA __ 10d _____ +2.4 __ +1.6 __ --0.1 ___ --3.0 __ +3.4 __ +2.5 ____ +0.2 __ --0.6 __ +5.4 next update after 15 days with some early projections. In case you missed them, the seasonal max contest final results are available in the September thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 ____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA __ 15d _____ +3.1 __ +2.7 __ +1.3 ___ --1.8 __ +4.5 __ +1.5 ____ +0.8 __+0.3 __ +5.1 __ 16d _____ +3.2 __ +3.1 __ +1.9 ___ --1.7 __ +4.2 __ +1.4 ____ +1.2 __+0.4 __ +5.3 __ 17d _____ +3.4 __ +3.4 __ +2.4 ___ --1.4 __ +4.0 __ +1.4 ____ +1.2 __+0.6 __ +5.3 __ 18d _____ +3.5 __ +3.6 __ +2.9 ___ --1.8 __ +3.9 __ +1.5 ____ +1.4 __+0.8 __ +5.6 __ 19d _____ +3.2 __ +3.1 __ +2.5 ___ --2.2 __ +3.6 __ +1.5 ____ +1.9 __+1.1 __ +5.9 __ 20d _____ +3.1 __ +2.7 __ +2.2 ___ --1.8 __ +3.5 __ +1.5 ____ +2.5 __+1.2 __ +5.8 __ 21d _____ +3.2 __ +2.9 __ +2.3 ___ --1.8 __ +3.4 __ +1.3 ____ +3.0 __+1.4 __ +5.9 __ 22d _____ +3.0 __ +2.7 __ +2.2 ___ --2.0 __ +3.1 __ +1.3 ____ +3.3 __+1.6 __ +5.3 __ 23d _____ +3.0 __ +2.4 __ +2.1 ___ --2.0 __ +2.8 __ +1.2 ____ +3.6 __+1.8 __ +5.7 __ 24d _____ +3.2 __ +2.4 __ +1.9 ___ --1.5 __ +2.7 __ +1.1 ____ +4.0 __+2.0 __ +5.5 __ 25d _____ +3.3 __ +2.5 __ +2.0 ___ --1.0 __ +2.6 __ +1.1 ____ +4.5 __+2.4 __ +5.5 __ 26d _____ +3.4 __ +2.6 __ +2.0 ___ --0.8 __ +2.9 __ +1.1 ____ +5.0 __+2.5 __ +5.3 __ 27d _____ +3.3 __ +2.5 __ +2.1 ___ --0.2 __ +3.3 __ +1.2 ____ +4.6 __+2.7 __ +5.2 __ 28d _____ +3.7 __ +2.8 __ +2.1 ___ +0.1 __ +3.4 __ +1.4 ____ +4.4 __+2.8 __ +5.1 __ 29d _____ +3.7 __ +3.0 __ +2.5 ___ --0.1 __ +3.4 __ +1.5 ____ +4.4 __+2.9 __ +5.3 __ 30d _____ +3.6 __ +2.9 __ +2.5 ___ --0.3 __ +3.2 __ +1.4 ____ +4.4 __+3.0 __ +5.3 __ OCT_____ +3.4 __+2.7 __+2.4 ___--0.5 __+3.1 __+1.3 ____ +4.3__+3.3 __+5.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Final Scores for October 2014 <<< see previous post for anomalies >>> FORECASTER ___________________DCA_NYC_BOS___CL ____ORD_ATL_IAH ___ EX ____ TOTAL Tom ___________________________66 _ 78 _ 74 ___ 218 ___ 76 _ 80_ 90____ 246 ____ 464wxallannj _______________________68 _ 70 _ 64 ___ 208 ___ 96_ 76 _ 84 ____ 256 ____ 464Blazess556______________________76 _ 94 _ 88 ___ 258 ___ 40 _ 64 _ 82 ____ 186 ____ 444stebo __________________________80 _ 96 _ 92___ 268 ___ 36 _ 60 _ 78 ____ 174 ____ 442 chaser25973 ____________________94 _ 92 _ 88 ___ 274 ___ 32 _ 44 _ 84 ____ 160 ____ 434cpick79 ________________________ 60 _ 70 _ 74 ___ 204___ 80 _ 58 _ 90 ____ 228 ____ 432 goobagooba ____________________ 68 _ 66 _ 70 ___ 204 ___ 90 _ 52 _ 84 ____ 226 ____ 430SACRUS ________________________58 _ 74 _ 74 ___ 206 ___ 54 _ 64 _ 92 ____ 210 ____ 416UncleW ________________________ 62 _ 80 _ 80 ___ 222 ___ 96_ 28 _ 64 ____ 188 ____ 410 Consensus ______________________52 _ 68 _ 68 ___ 188 ___ 84 _ 52 _ 84 ____ 220 ____ 408 Isotherm _______________________48 _ 68 _ 78 ___ 194 ___ 84 _ 46 _ 82 ____ 212 ____ 406hudsonvalley21 _________________ 50 _ 62 _ 64 ___ 176 ___ 86 _ 46 _ 90 ____ 222 ____ 398SD ____________________________52 _ 56 _ 62 ___ 170 ___ 80 _ 58 _ 84 ____ 222 ____ 392Midlo Snow Maker _______________ 50 _ 62 _ 62 ___ 174 ___ 80 _ 54 _ 84 ____ 218 ____ 392donsutherland.1 _________________48 _ 62 _ 66 ___ 176 ___ 86 _ 48 _ 80 ____ 214 ____ 390bkviking _______________________ 54 _ 70 _ 68 ___ 192 ___ 88 _ 58 _ 78 ____ 224 _ 416_______________ (-7%) _________ 50 _ 65 _ 63 ___ 178 ___ 82 _ 54 _ 72 ____ 208 ____ 386Mallow ________________________ 50 _ 68 _ 66 ___ 184 ___ 74 _ 44 _ 80 ____ 198 ____ 382wxdude64 ______________________52 _ 66 _ 72 ___ 190 ___ 82 _ 44 _ 66 ____ 192 ____ 382OHweather _____________________48 _ 62 _ 52 ___ 158 ___ 80 _ 58 _ 86 ____ 224 ____ 382Tenman Johnson ________________42 _ 46 _ 42 ___ 130 ___ 90 _ 58 _94 ____ 242 ____ 372metalicwx366 ___________________52 _ 66 _ 34 ___ 152 ___ 72 _ 42 _ 94 ____ 208 ____ 360ksammut ______________________ 70 _ 74 _ 32 ___ 176 ___ 34 _ 76 _ 58 ____ 168 ____ 344RodneyS _______________________42 _ 70 _ 82 ___ 194 ___ 50 _ 50 _ 40 ____ 140 ____ 334 Normal ________________________ 32 _ 46 _ 52 ___ 130 ___ 90 _ 38 _ 74 ____ 202 ____ 332 Roger Smith ____________________22 _ 32 _ 32 ___ 086 ___ 84 _ 36 _ 74 ____ 194 ____ 280Damage in Tolland _______________26 _ 26 _ 26 ___ 078 ___ 72 _ 32 _ 84 ____ 188 ____ 266 Provisional scores for western contest, October 2014 FORECASTER _______________________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS Midlo Snow Maker ____________________50 _ 72 _ 41 ___ 163Damage in Tolland ___________________ 44 _ 70 _ 37 ___ 151SD ________________________________ 44 _ 74_ 27 ___ 145Mallow _____________________________24 _ 64 _ 47 ___ 135SACRUS ____________________________24 _ 64 _ 39 ___ 127Isotherm ___________________________ 24 _ 60 _ 43 ___ 127wxallannj ___________________________32 _ 50 _ 39 ___ 121donsutherland.1 _____________________ 30 _ 52 _ 37 ___ 119metalicwx366 _______________________ 00 _ 70 _ 23 ____ 93 Consensus __________________________10 _ 60 _ 17 ____ 87 goobagooba ________________________ 14 _ 44 _ 27 ____ 85Roger Smith ________________________ 08 _ 42 _ 31 ____ 81OHweather _________________________ 00 _ 54 _ 27 ____ 81wxdude64 __________________________ 04 _ 60 _ 05 ____ 69bkviking ____________________________00 _ 50 _ 19 _ 69_______________ (-7%) ______________00 _ 47 _ 18 ____ 65RodneyS ___________________________ 14 _ 18 _ 19 ____ 51cpick79 ____________________________ 00 _ 50 _ 00 ____ 50 Normal _____________________________14 _ 34 _ 00 ____ 48 hudsonvalley21 ______________________ 08 _ 30 _ 03 ____ 41 Tom _______________________________ 10 _ 18 _ 00 ____ 28 ksammut ___________________________ 00 _ 12 _ 15 ____ 27chaser25973 ________________________ 00 _ 24 _ 00 ____ 24stebo ______________________________ 00 _ 04 _ 00 ____ 04Blazess556__________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 (note -- best viewed at 100% not higher, prevents line overflow) <<< --------------- Final Annual Scoring Report Jan-Oct 2014 --------------- >>> FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS___CL ____ORD__ATL__IAH__EX____TOT____high scores __Annual anomalies __ --0.3_--1.3_--0.9__ ,, ___--2.3_--0.4_--1.5 ____ ,, _________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA....CL...EX....MO donsutherland.1 ______ 754_ 750_820__2324 ___604 _688 _734___2026___ 4350 ___0 1 1 0 1 1 __ 1 _ 1 __APR Roger Smith _________ 724_ 728_ 670__2122 ___672 _720 _761___2153___4275 ___1 1 1 3 1 3 __ 0 _ 2 _JAN,JUN OHweather __________763_ 759_ 798__2320 ___584 _729 _626___1939___ 4259 ___1 0 1 0 2 0 __ 1 _ 0 __SEP Consensus __________ 720_ 756_ 808__2282 ___ 546 _704 _702___1952 __ 4234 ___1 0 0 0 2 0 __ 0 _ 0 Mallow ______________706_ 746_ 790__2242 ___588 _675 _684___1947___ 4189 ___0 1 1 1 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 blazess556 ___________707_ 779_819__2305 ___491 _674 _704___1879___ 4184 ___0 1 1 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 1 Isotherm ____________ 734_ 724_ 750__2200 ___577 _684 _706___1967___ 4175 ___1 1 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 Midlo Snow Maker _____720_ 758_ 802__2280 ___556 _632 _670___1858___ 4138 ___0 1 0 1 2 1 __ 0 _ 1 Goobagooba _________ 694_ 750_ 782__2226 ___581 _644 _670___1895___ 4121 ___0 1 2 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0 hudsonvalley21 _______687_ 719_ 752__2158 ___503 _663 _712___1886___ 4036 ___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0 Tom ________________677_ 713_ 739__2129 ___594 _707 _603___1904___ 4033 ___0 0 1 0 1 0___ 0 _ 0 __OCT stebo _______________672_ 654_ 776__2102 ___431 _662 _722___1815___ 3917 ___2 1 1 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0 Tenman Johnson______696_ 644_ 654__1994 ___529 _645 _730___1904___ 3898 ___2 1 0 0 1 3 __ 3 _ 1 __MAR cpick79 _____________ 617_ 644_ 729__1990 ___520 _715 _650___1885___ 3875 ___0 0 0 0 0 2 __ 0 _ 1 __JUL bkviking _____________695_ 687_ 758__2140 ___480 _687 _562___1729___ 3869 ___0 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 __MAY UncleW _____________ 568_ 628_ 762__1958 ___520 _608 _738___1866___ 3824 ___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 0 _ 0 metalicwx366 ________ 729_ 663_ 613__2005 ___601 _620 _588___1809___ 3814 ___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 wxdude64 ___________ 648_ 687_ 750__2085 ___429 _511 _724___1664___ 3748 ___1 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0 Normal _____________ 580_ 574_ 676__1830 ___504 _646 _702___1852___ 3682 ___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 1 _ 2 Damage in Tolland ____ 668_ 641_ 685__1994 ___528 _585 _498___1611___ 3605 ___1 0 0 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 0 ksammut ____________ 616_ 644_ 676__1936 ___382 _572 _696___1650___ 3586 ___0 1 1 0 0 1 __ 1 _ 1 __ FEB SD _________________ 543_ 583_ 677__1803 ___445 _637 _572___1654___ 3457 ___0 0 0 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0 __ AUG RodneyS _____________504_ 598_ 702__1804 ___387 _456 _666___1507___ 3311 ___0 1 0 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0 wxallannj @ __________214_ 208_ 204__ 626 ___250 _226 _266 ___742 ___ 1368 ___0 0 0 2 0 0 __ 0 _ 2 __OCTSACRUS @ ___________ 216_ 212_ 202 _ 630 ___192 _224 _268 ___684 ___ 1314 ___0 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0 Chicago Storm*******__186_ 153_ 148__ 487 ___117 _134 __97___ 348 ____ 835 weatherdude @________ 66__120_ 150__ 336 ___115 __96 _126___ 337 ____ 673 ___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0 H20Town_Wx @ ______ 125__102_ 144___371 ___ 83 __90 __60___ 233 ____ 604 ___0 0 1 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 IntenseBlizzard2014 @*__ 78__ 80__ 66___224 ___ 92 __76 __84___ 252 ____ 476 mikehobbyst @* ________84__ 92__ 78___254 ___ 64 __68 __80___ 212 ____ 466 chaser25973 @*________ 94__ 92__ 88___274 ___ 32 __44 __82___ 158 ____ 432 ___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 1 _ 0 Quincy @*_____________54__ 66__ 42___ 162 ___ 38 __82 __92___ 212 ____ 374 TropicalAnalystwx13 @*__88__ 44__ 76___ 208 ___ 26 __76 __60___ 162 ____ 370 swflow @ *____________74__ 66__ 82___ 222 ____90 __36 __00___ 126 ____ 348 CSheridan12 @*________46__ 04__ 00____ 50 ____12__ 86 __44___ 144 ____ 192 __________________________________________ @ missed eight months * missed one month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Final Annual Scores for Optional western contest This month, I have added the grand total scores for those who have been playing all nine stations most or all of the year. Ranks are shown in brackets. SET TO 100% SCREEN TO PREVENT LINE OVERFLOW. ____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____________ best forecast awards _____ four season award ___ all 9 Annual anomalies _____+0.2_ +2.5 _ +2.7__________DEN PHX SEA _ Months ____Win,Spr,Sum,Aut TOT Isotherm ____________748 __ 742 __749 ___2239 __ __ 0 0 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ ___10, 4,10 (24) ____ 6414 (2) Midlo Snow Maker ____ 718 __796__ 699 ___ 2213 _____ 2 1 2 ____ 1 __ OCT _____ 4,10, 6 (20) ____ 6351 ( 4) Mallow _____________ 790__ 708 __ 707 ___2205 _____ 3 0 1 ____ 3_FEB,APR,JUN_ 6, 7, 3 (16) ____ 6394 ( 3) donsutherland.1 ______734 __ 718 __711 ____2163 _____ 0 1 1 ____ 1 __ JUL,SEP___1, 6, 7 (14) ____ 6513 ( 1) Consensus ___________730 __ 686 __ 625 ___2041 _____1 0 1 ____ 1 __ APR _____ 2, 6, 2 (10) ____ 6275 ( 5) Roger Smith _________ 612 __ 664 __ 695 ___1971 _____ 1 0 2 ____ 0 ____________2, 0, 4 (6) ____ 6246 ( 5) Goobagooba _________ 694 __ 720 __ 555 ___1969 _____ 1 1 0 ____ 1 __ JAN _____ 7, 1, 1 (9) ____ 6090 ( 6) metalicwx366 ________ 602 __ 695 __ 596 ___1893 ____________________________ 1, 1, 0 (2) ____ 5707 (10) blazess556 ___________653 __ 624 __ 607 ___1884 _____ 1 0 2 ____ 0 _ _ _ _ _____ 5, 1 ,2 (8) ____ 6068 ( 7) wxdude64 ___________ 693 __ 578 __ 584 ___1855______1 0 1 ____ 0 ____________3, 0, 1 (4) ____ 5604 (13) Damage in Tolland ____ 534 __ 670 __ 624 ___1828 ______________ 1___ MAY _____0, 3, 0 (3) ____ 5433 (14) bkviking _____________608 __ 694 __ 508 ___ 1810______0 1 0 ____ 1 __ MAR _____0, 2, 0 (2) ____ 5679 (11) Tom ________________ 603 __ 587 __ 487 ___1677 ___________________________ 1, 0, 0 (1) ____ 5710 ( 9) Normal _____________ 698 __ 496 __ 464 ___ 1658 _________________________________________ 5340 (15) SD _________________ 470 __ 611 __ 569 ___1650 _____0 2 0________________________________ 5107 (17) hudsonvalley21*_______600 __ 559 __ 440 ___1599 ___________________________ 0, 0, 1 (1) ____ 5635 (12) RodneyS ____________ 696 __ 370 __ 439 ___1505 _____0 1 1 ____ 1 ___ AUG ____ 0, 0, 5 (5) ____ 4816 (19) OHweather __________ 492 __ 485 __ 506 ___1481 _________________________________________ 5742 ( 8) ksammut ____________ 534 __ 456 __ 487 ___1477 _________________________________________ 5063 (18) cpick79*_____________ 512 __ 589 __ 368 ___1469 _____0 0 1 __________________ 0, 5, 0 (5) ____ 5344 (15)Stebo _______________ 586 __ 406 __ 358 ___1350 _________________________________________ 5267 (16) wxallannj @ __________168___200 ___ 87 ____455 _____0 1 0 ____0 __________________________ 1823 Chicago Storm*******__172 __ 108 __ 162 ____442 _________________________________________ 1277 SACRUS @ ___________104 ___174 __119 ____397 __________________________________________1711 H20Town_Wx @ ______ 146 ___ 97 __ 141 ____384 __________________________________________ 988 Quincy @* ___________ 84 ___100 ___ 80 ___ 264 ____ 0 1 0 ____ 0 Mikehobbyst @* ______100 ___ 66 ___ 52 ____218 ____ 1 0 0 ____ 0swflow @* ___________ 61 ___ 90 ___ 40 ____191_____0 1 0 ____ 0TropicalAnalystwx13 @* 54 ___ 00 ___ 92 ___ 146 IntenseBlizzard2014 @*_ 50 ___ 92 ___ 00 ___ 142CSheridan12 @*_______ 00 ___ 84 ___ 00 ____ 84 ____ 0 1 0 ____ 0weatherdude @* ______ 12 ___ 08 ___ 30 ____ 50 chaser25973 __________ 00 ___24 ___ 00 ____ 24 ___________________________________________________________ * months missed @ eight months missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Updates on the 2014 "extreme forecast" situation. The table has been copied from its original (August) location and updated for September and October. An extreme forecast was defined as one of these two situations: (.A.) the anomaly was greater than or equal to any forecast (in the same sign direction in all cases) or (.B.) where there was one forecast greater, and if so, whether that one was closest or not. ... Names are somewhat abbreviated, hope you can recognize the culprits. Late penalties could influence results of actual high score as opposed to closest forecast, but after revision of the larger penalties March to May, that was no longer the case. MONTH ______ STATION ______ ANOMALY ______ EXTREME FORECAST same sign ___ actual closest forecast__ type Oct ____________DCA __________ +3.4 ____________ +3.1 chaser25973 _____________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________NYC __________ +2.7 ____________ +2.5 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________BOS __________ +2.4 ____________ +2.0 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________ATL ___________ +3.1 ____________ +2.1 Tom ___________________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________DEN __________ +4.3 ____________ +1.8 Midlo ___________________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________PHX __________ +3.3 ____________ +2.0 SD _____________________ <-- this ________A Oct ____________SEA ___________+5.2 ____________ +2.5 Mallow __________________<-- this ________A Sep ____________ATL __________ +2.3 ____________ +2.2 goobagooba _____________ <-- this ________A Sep ___________ DEN __________ +1.3 _____________ +1.3 blazess556 _____________ <-- this ________A Sep ___________ SEA ___________ +3.5 ____________ +1.8 donsutherland.1 _________ <-- this ________A Aug ____________ORD _________ +1.3 _____________ +1.1 wxallannj _______________ <-- this ________A Aug ____________PHX _________ --2.0 _____________ -1.5 RodneyS _________________ <-- this ________A Aug ___________ SEA __________ +3.0 _____________ +3.8 Roger ___________________<-- this ________B July ___________ DCA _________ --0.4 _____________ --0.5 Tenman _________________ <-- this ________B July ___________ NYC _________ --0.4 _____________ --0.5 Tenman _________________ <-- this ________B July ___________ ORD _________ --3.6 _____________ -2.5 RodneyS _________________ <-- this ________A July ___________ ATL __________ --2.3 ____________ --0.6 Hudson __________________ <-- this ________A July ___________ SEA __________ +3.5 ____________ +2.7 RodneyS _________________ <-- this ________A June __________ ORD __________ +2.0 ____________ +1.6 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A May __________ DCA ___________ +2.5 ____________ +2.1 metallic__________________ <-- this ________A May __________ NYC ___________ +1.6 ____________ +1.4 blazes ___________________ <--this ________A May __________ ORD ___________+1.3 ____________ +2.5 Roger ___________________ Midlo (+0.5) ____B May __________ IAH ___________ --2.8 ____________ --2.1 ksammut ________________ <-- this ________ A May __________SEA ___________ --3.1 ____________ --2.7 Damage _________________<-- this ________ A Mar __________ DCA ___________ --3.9 ____________ --4.0 Tenman _________________ <-- this ________B Mar __________ NYC ___________ --4.8 ____________ --4.2 ksammut ________________ <-- this ________A Mar __________ BOS ___________ --4.8 ____________ --5.2 ksammut ________________ <-- this ________B Mar __________ ATL ___________ --1.8 ____________ --4.0 Tenman _________________ --1.7 OHwx _____B Mar __________ IAH ___________ --3.9 ____________ --4.0 Tenman _________________<--this _________B Mar __________ PHX ___________ --3.8 ___________ --3.7 swflow ___________________ <-- this _______ A Mar __________ SEA ___________ --2.0 ___________ --4.8 swflow ___________________ --2.0 cpick79 ___ B Feb ___________ NYC __________ --3.7 ___________ --2.2 Midlo ____________________ <-- this ________A Feb ___________ BOS __________ --2.7 ___________ --2.1 gooba^2 ________________ <-- this ________A Feb ___________ ORD _________ --10.4 ___________ --5.0 gooba^2 ________________ <--this _________A Feb ___________ IAH ___________ --1.7 ___________ --2.8 midlo ___________________ --1.6 uncleW ____B Feb ___________ DEN ___________ --4.3 ___________ --3.4 Mallow _________________ <-- this ________ A Feb ___________ PHX ___________ +4.7 ___________ +4.0 csheridan _______________ <--this _________A Jan ___________ DCA ___________ --3.8 ___________ --3.9 metallic ________________ --3.8 Roger _____ B Jan ___________ NYC ___________ --4.0 ___________ --4.1 metallic ________________ --4.0 Roger _____ B Jan ___________ ORD ___________ --8.2 ___________ --8.6 Roger _________________ <-- this _________B Jan ___________ ATL ___________ --6.3 ___________ --5.2 Roger _________________ <-- this _________ A Jan ___________ IAH ___________ --3.6 ___________ --3.2 Roger _________________ <-- this __________A Jan ___________ PHX ___________ +3.5 ___________ +3.0 gooba^2 _______________ <--this _________ A Jan ___________ SEA ___________ +2.3 ___________ +2.4 Roger _____________ tied with Tom (+2.2) __ B Two cases where second most extreme forecast of only two cases was closest: May __________ PHX ___________ +2.4 ____________ +2.6 Mallow ______________ +2.5 SD ________ B-2 Mar __________ ORD ___________ --6.2 ____________ --7.2 swflow ____________ --6.4 Roger _______ B-2 Summing up, 46 cases in all (out of 90 in the first ten months). 30 were of "A" type and 14 plus the additional 2 were of "B" type. Of those, the most extreme forecast won the month in 40 of 46 cases (all of the As and 10/16 of the Bs) and there was one tie among the winning B cases, otherwise six went to the second most extreme forecast which was seldom far from the actual with one exception (see ORD for May). This seems quite anomalous compared to previous years when these results might happen once or twice a season. Table leaders for these "extreme forecasts" (the two B-2 cases are counted as a B win plus a B loss, no B loss high score) ... the forecaster record counts all types of wins vs the one type of loss (which basically amounts to going too extreme against the entire field). Note that "A" wins are automatic, forecaster not as extreme as actual anomaly. * share a win under "B" win and "B loss high score" FORECASTER _________ "A" (win) ___ "B" (win) ___ "B" (loss) ____ high score vs "B" loss, counts as win Roger Smith (9-1)*______3 ____________ 4 _________ 1 __________ 2 goobagooba (4-0) ______ 4 ____________ 0 _________ 0 MidloSnowMaker (4-0) ___3 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 Tenman Johnson (4-1) ___0 ____________4 _________ 1 RodneyS (3-0) _________ 3 ____________ 0 _________ 0 ksammut (3-0) _________2 ____________ 1 _________ 0 blazess556 (2-0) _______ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 0 Tom (2-0)*____________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 SD (2-0) ______________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 stebo (2-0) ____________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 0 Mallow (2-1) ___________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 1 donsutherland.1 (1-0)____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 Damage in Tolland (1-0) _ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 wxallannj (1-0) _________1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 hudsonvalley21 (1-0) ____1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 OHweather (1-0) _______ 0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 UncleW (1-0) __________ 0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 cpick79 (1-0 ) __________0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1 csheridan12 (1-0) ______ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 chaser25973 __________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 swflow (1-2) ___________1 ____________ 0 _________ 2 metalicwx366 (1-2) _____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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