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October 2014 temperature forecast contest


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Looking at the September provisional scoring, the contest could be tightening up for a dramatic finish as we enter the last quarter of the year.

 

So it's the usual task of supplying anomalies (F deg) vs 1981-2010 normal values for these locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

good luck, western stations optional, deadline 06z Wed Oct 1st. Same relaxed time penalties as previous months.

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Looking at the September provisional scoring, the contest could be tightening up for a dramatic finish as we enter the last quarter of the year.

 

So it's the usual task of supplying anomalies (F deg) vs 1981-2010 normal values for these locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

good luck, western stations optional, deadline 06z Wed Oct 1st. Same relaxed time penalties as previous months.

DCA:+0.5

NYC:0.0

BOS:-0.5

ORD:0.0

ATL:+1.0

IAH:+1.0

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I noticed somewhere on the site that there could be an interruption in service tonight. If so, may pause the penalty clock during that shutdown, and if you need a place to park a forecast during that down time, e-mail me if you wish.

 

[email protected]

 

Will record your time and post on the thread. Or wait for resumption of service and we'll go on the honor system with your stated attempted post time.

 

Meanwhile, I can't wait for Gibbs to give me the scoop, so here's a wild guess ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.5 __ -0.7 __ -1.0 ___ -1.3 ___ -0.1 __ 0.0 ____ --0.3 __ +0.4 __ +1.7

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Table of entries -- October 2014

 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

chaser25973 ____________________+3.1 _+2.3 _+1.8 ___+2.9 _+0.3 _+0.5 ____ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.9

stebo __________________________+2.4 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___+2.7 _+1.1 _+0.2 ____ --1.4 _--1.5 _--1.2

Blazess556______________________+2.2 _+2.4 _+1.8 ___+2.5 _+1.3 _+0.4 ____ --1.6 _--1.7 _--1.1

ksammut _______________________+1.9 _+1.4 _--1.0 ___--3.8 _+1.9 _--0.8 ____ --0.9 _--1.1 _+0.9

wxallannj _______________________+1.8 _+1.3 _+0.8 ___--0.7 _+1.9 _+2.1 ____ +0.9 _+0.8 _+2.1

goobagooba ____________________ +1.8 _+1.0 _+0.9 ____ 0.0 _+0.7 _+0.5 _____ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.5

Tom ___________________________+1.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___ +0.7 _+2.1 _+1.8 ___ --0.2 _--0.8 _--0.9

UncleW ________________________ +1.5 _+1.7 _+1.4 ___--0.3 _--0.5 _--0.5

cpick79 ________________________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.8 ____--0.7 _+0.8 __ 0.0

SACRUS ________________________+1.3 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--2.8 _+1.3 _+0.9 ____+0.5 _+1.5 _+2.1

bkviking ________ (-7%) __________+1.1 _+1.2 _+0.8 ___+0.1 _+1.0 _+0.2 ____ --0.7 _+0.8 _+1.1

wxdude64 ______________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___--1.4 _+0.3 _--0.4 ____ --0.5 _+0.8 _+0.9

 

Consensus ______________________+1.0 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___--1.3 _+0.7 _+0.5 ____ --0.2 _+0.8 _+1.5

 

metalicwx366 ___________________+1.0 _+1.0 _--0.9 ___--1.9 _+0.2 _+1.0 ____ --1.5 _+1.8 _+1.3

SD ____________________________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ +1.5 _+2.0 _+1.5

Mallow _________________________+0.9 _+1.1 _+0.7 ___--1.8 _+0.3 _+0.3 ____ +0.5 _+1.5 _+2.5

hudsonvalley21 __________________+0.9 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.8 ____--0.3 _--0.2 _+0.3

Midlo Snow Maker _______________ +0.9 _+0.8 _+0.5 ___--1.5 _+0.8 _+0.5 ____ +1.8 _+1.9 _+2.2

Isotherm _______________________+0.8 _+1.1 _+1.3 ___--1.3 _+0.4 _+0.4 ____ +0.5 _+1.3 _+2.3

donsutherland.1 _________________+0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___ +0.2 _+0.5 _+0.3 ____ +0.8 _+0.9 _+2.0

OHweather _____________________+0.6 _+0.8 __ 0.0 ___--1.5 _+1.0 _+0.6 ____ --0.8 _+1.0 _+1.5

RodneyS _______________________+0.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___--3.0 _+0.6 _--1.7 ______ 0.0 _--0.8 _+1.1

Tenman Johnson ________________ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

 

Normal ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Damage in Tolland _______________--0.3 _--1.0 _--1.3 ___ --1.9 _--0.3 _+0.5 ____ +1.5 _+1.8 _+2.0

Roger Smith ____________________--0.5 _--0.7 _--1.0 ___ --1.3 _--0.1 __0.0 ____ --0.3 _+0.4 _+1.7

______________________________________________________

 

Have cut cpick79 and bkviking a break on penalties as the site was down for several hours early on Wed October 1st. First 5% removed from the usual deductions. With our full regular field having entered (welcome to Chaser25973) Consensus is now mean of 12th and 13th ranked (11th and 12th western). Normal is excluded from the calculation. 24 actual forecasters.

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