Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Thursday September 25 Rain Storm


IsentropicLift

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 253
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Lol just a few drops here basically. Nothing to even really wet the ground. Looks like a whopping one hundredth of an inch.

That may be all as well.

Frustrating

My thoughts yesterday shat the bed badly. Kevin ftw until he caved.m. Blizzard24 never caved so kudos to him though he called mostly sunny.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we're back where we started from last winter. 

 

SREFs and NAM are useless with synoptic events... GFS not much better. Euro remains king.

 

Last night's 00z NAM I thought did fairly well. Kept all rain CT and south while the Euro and GFS had measurable precip up into NH/VT.

 

But consistent, it has not been.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what would have happened in winter

- WSW's would be issued to the Pike..I'd be calling for 6-12 and mets would urge caution , but still admit there was a good shot at some decent snows

- Juicy serf's and GEFS runs would get some weenies really hot and bothered and thinking a good event was coming

- Tip would post a DGEX run or 2 and mention noone should use it, but still make a short 1000 word post about it

- The Euro ens being west of the op would illicit all kinds of posts and enthusiasm..it would give mets confidence..and weenies an invincible feeling

- The GGEM would be discarded because it was so dry

- The Euro run from last night would send most mets and weenies into panic mode..still going with snow..but with much less confidence and doubt..and WSW would changed to snow advisories with BOX issuing maps with 2-4 to the pike

- I'd wake up and run..see the stars out at 5:00 am..ignore that as a bad sign and convince myself it was still going to snow..even when breaks of blue and dim sun appeared mid morning..I would stare at radar thinking it was making good northward progression..

-Cweat would post how good everything looked as flurries increased near the Sagamore..

- By noon snow advisories would be dropped..as even coastal areas who were expected to get the most were reporting S- with dustings to an inch

- Someone would post an HRRR or RAP run and say it still showed good snows in the evening..even as skies were clearing overhead

- By evening..as the cirrus shield sank south and east..there'd be some rehashing over what went wrong, how bad the models were, and someone would say something about how March is still a wintry month

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was very little (if any) dynamical support with this system in both the mid/upper levels and with the lower levels.  It's extremely difficult to get a widespread soaking rainfall with very little support.  Wasn't a whole ton of frotogenesis either.  Having stronger isentropic lift would have really help to compensate some but we didn't have that either.  As Scott mentioned too in a post we had a quite a bit of dry air aloft too.  

 

Perhaps the threat for some rains could increase a bit for some as the LLJ max clips a portion of the area.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what would have happened in winter

- WSW's would be issued to the Pike..I'd be calling for 6-12 and mets would urge caution , but still admit there was a good shot at some decent snows

- Juicy serf's and GEFS runs would get some weenies really hot and bothered and thinking a good event was coming

- Tip would post a DGEX run or 2 and mention noone should use it, but still make a short 1000 word post about it

- The Euro ens being west of the op would illicit all kinds of posts and enthusiasm..it would give mets confidence..and weenies an invincible feeling

- The GGEM would be discarded because it was so dry

- The Euro run from last night would send most mets and weenies into panic mode..still going with snow..but with much less confidence and doubt..and WSW would changed to snow advisories with BOX issuing maps with 2-4 to the pike

- I'd wake up and run..see the stars out at 5:00 am..ignore that as a bad sign and convince myself it was still going to snow..even when breaks of blue and dim sun appeared mid morning..I would stare at radar thinking it was making good northward progression..

-Cweat would post how good everything looked as flurries increased near the Sagamore..

- By noon snow advisories would be dropped..as even coastal areas who were expected to get the most were reporting S- with dustings to an inch

- Someone would post an HRRR or RAP run and say it still showed good snows in the evening..even as skies were clearing overhead

- By evening..as the cirrus shield sank south and east..there'd be some rehashing over what went wrong, how bad the models were, and someone would say something about how March is still a wintry month

Great post. +1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what would have happened in winter

- WSW's would be issued to the Pike..I'd be calling for 6-12 and mets would urge caution , but still admit there was a good shot at some decent snows

- Juicy serf's and GEFS runs would get some weenies really hot and bothered and thinking a good event was coming

- Tip would post a DGEX run or 2 and mention noone should use it, but still make a short 1000 word post about it

- The Euro ens being west of the op would illicit all kinds of posts and enthusiasm..it would give mets confidence..and weenies an invincible feeling

- The GGEM would be discarded because it was so dry

- The Euro run from last night would send most mets and weenies into panic mode..still going with snow..but with much less confidence and doubt..and WSW would changed to snow advisories with BOX issuing maps with 2-4 to the pike

- I'd wake up and run..see the stars out at 5:00 am..ignore that as a bad sign and convince myself it was still going to snow..even when breaks of blue and dim sun appeared mid morning..I would stare at radar thinking it was making good northward progression..

-Cweat would post how good everything looked as flurries increased near the Sagamore..

- By noon snow advisories would be dropped..as even coastal areas who were expected to get the most were reporting S- with dustings to an inch

- Someone would post an HRRR or RAP run and say it still showed good snows in the evening..even as skies were clearing overhead

- By evening..as the cirrus shield sank south and east..there'd be some rehashing over what went wrong, how bad the models were, and someone would say something about how March is still a wintry month

accurate on so many levels

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what would have happened in winter

- WSW's would be issued to the Pike..I'd be calling for 6-12 and mets would urge caution , but still admit there was a good shot at some decent snows

- Juicy serf's and GEFS runs would get some weenies really hot and bothered and thinking a good event was coming

- Tip would post a DGEX run or 2 and mention noone should use it, but still make a short 1000 word post about it

- The Euro ens being west of the op would illicit all kinds of posts and enthusiasm..it would give mets confidence..and weenies an invincible feeling

- The GGEM would be discarded because it was so dry

- The Euro run from last night would send most mets and weenies into panic mode..still going with snow..but with much less confidence and doubt..and WSW would changed to snow advisories with BOX issuing maps with 2-4 to the pike

- I'd wake up and run..see the stars out at 5:00 am..ignore that as a bad sign and convince myself it was still going to snow..even when breaks of blue and dim sun appeared mid morning..I would stare at radar thinking it was making good northward progression..

-Cweat would post how good everything looked as flurries increased near the Sagamore..

- By noon snow advisories would be dropped..as even coastal areas who were expected to get the most were reporting S- with dustings to an inch

- Someone would post an HRRR or RAP run and say it still showed good snows in the evening..even as skies were clearing overhead

- By evening..as the cirrus shield sank south and east..there'd be some rehashing over what went wrong, how bad the models were, and someone would say something about how March is still a wintry month

Spot on!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...