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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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WWAs up:

...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 am Tuesday to 7 am EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for light snow...sleet...and freezing rain...which is in effect from 10 am Tuesday to 7 am EST Wednesday.

* Locations...the lower Susquehanna River valley...central mountains and northwest mountains of Pennsylvania.

* Hazard types...light snow and sleet...changing to periods of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle late Tuesday afternoon and night.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of up to 1 inch...followed by up to one tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain.

* Timing...light snow will develop north across the area late Tuesday morning and early Tuesday afternoon. The snow will mix with sleet during the afternoon...then likely change to periods of light freezing rain late in the day. Periods of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will occur through much of Tuesday night.

* Impacts...a light accumulation of snow and sleet generally less than one inch...followed by the potential for a thin layer of black ice on untreated surfaces...creating hazardous conditions for both motorists and pedestrians.

* Winds...east to southeast 5 mph or less.

* Temperatures...between 25 and 32 degrees.

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We could very well see a little bit of a mix of everything tomorrow but I believe the threat for icing will only occur in a brief couple hour window around here.  To me it just looks like there is too much warming occuring aloft that would end up producing more cold rain than ice on the south and east side of the mountains.

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The long range GFS is so ugly that I can't stop looping the entire run hoping that Im somehow seeing things.  :yikes:

Long range gfs....how many times as that been right? It's not as bad for interior folks with elevation, lower elevation and coastal plain does not look good for awhile. It may be that kind of winter.

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Not too concerned with the LSV right now. The central counties over to Lebanon north of Rt. 30 will be more dicey compared to south of 30, but even that's a stretch outside of the valley's. Warm nose aloft came in stronger than modeled which of course when every degree counts, it's a big deal. Very raw day for many. Outlook next two weeks looks boring so far. We'll see how the evolution of the LR takes shape. By next week, we'll start seeing the period beyond mid December where a lot are calling for a flip in the pattern we have established.

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Light snow in Bellefonte for the past 10-15 minutes.  Temperature is 28°, and there is a light coating on colder surfaces. I think if we are going to get any measurable snow it will come in the next hour with the heavier returns moving in. I'd imagine after that we will be seeing IP or ZR.

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Just got back into town after being away the last several days for hunting. That line of heavy showers came through Bellwood about an hour ago (highlighted by the special weather statement) with heavy sleet and a nice shot of thunder and lightning...so thundersleet for the win I guess. 

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