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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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Final tally over here: 7" and the snowblower is not liking it.

Everybody have a nice Thanksgiving!! Smoking a turkey tomorrow.

How do you light a turkey?   :lmao:   people smoke everything today...

 

For the record 6 inches here just south of Wb. The temp finally dropped below 32 and the roads are now icey. Had the temp been 3 degrees cooler, we would have been 10+. very heavy wet snow.

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This was a nice event for pretty much everyone. I feel bad for the Harrisburg crowd and Voyager. Those areas just caught a snow hole. It happens unfortunately, but hopefully this is just one in many other chances. I'll be around to track it all and look forward to conversating with everyone throughout the season!!

It seems like the 700mb low and dryslot which hit us further east began around the I-81 corridor and shafted those guys. Definitely a bust zone since they all were under warnings. I-81 Harrisburg north has definitely been a bad area for snowstorms over the last 5 years. West on 322 by Lewistown today was a good area for some nice totals-9 or 10" in Juniata County from reports in this thread? I-99 looks to have come in just about as expected, maybe on the low end with 4" in Altoona and 5" in State College.

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It seems like the 700mb low and dryslot which hit us further east began around the I-81 corridor and shafted those guys. Definitely a bust zone since they all were under warnings. I-81 Harrisburg north has definitely been a bad area for snowstorms over the last 5 years.

 

I'm glad that at least one of our knowlegable amateurs has noticed this. It's been rough around here for some reason the past few years that's for sure. I need to get a ruler up on our back porch roof extention. Generally, I measure off of our backyard sidewalk since I don't have a true snowboard. When temps are under 32, and the ground is cold, it works well. With melting and compaction, my numbers may be artificially low. Eyeballing that roof (which is open underneath plastic corrugate) it looks like we MAY have gotten closer to 3 inches out of the storm.

 

I wonder who reported this as it wasn't me...

 

...SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...

TAMAQUA 2.0 1221 PM 11/26 PUBLIC

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Finished with a compacted total of 2.3" of very wet snow. I didn't get a chance to measure before compaction. The liquid from the storm was 1.06". The Euro once again nailed the qpf with this storm for this area. The GFS was consistently showing less qpf, even the NAM the last few cycles was closer to the final liquid precip than the GFS. 

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It seems like the 700mb low and dryslot which hit us further east began around the I-81 corridor and shafted those guys. Definitely a bust zone since they all were under warnings. I-81 Harrisburg north has definitely been a bad area for snowstorms over the last 5 years. West on 322 by Lewistown today was a good area for some nice totals-9 or 10" in Juniata County from reports in this thread? I-99 looks to have come in just about as expected, maybe on the low end with 4" in Altoona and 5" in State College.

Eskimo Joe made this point about the 700 mb dry air intrusion yesterday when he showed a 12z skew T out of Pittsburgh. It really was unfortunate for this to happen because the storm was actually performing amazingly beforehand. This was an under performer by forecast standards for many, so that I will not deny. By November standards, this was a decent event and many can enjoy a white Thanksgiving. The shaft zone has been noted though. I'm still learning the history for up here since I just moved to PA for good a year ago. Seems like since after the early 2000's, some areas have really struggled.
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Finished with a compacted total of 2.3" of very wet snow. I didn't get a chance to measure before compaction. The liquid from the storm was 1.06". The Euro once again nailed the qpf with this storm for this area. The GFS was consistently showing less qpf, even the NAM the last few cycles was closer to the final liquid precip than the GFS.

The GFS hat we have now was off with both temps and precip. The parallel GFS was actually better with precip than its partner, but still torched the surface by a few degrees overall. The NAM actually didn't do bad this time with precip in eastern Pa, but temps were still a little too warm. The HRRR did amazing on the temps and change over times for many. I was very impressed and will keep that noted for the remainder of the season.
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Eskimo Joe made this point about the 700 mb dry air intrusion yesterday when he showed a 12z skew T out of Pittsburgh. It really was unfortunate for this to happen because the storm was actually performing amazingly beforehand. This was an under performer by forecast standards for many, so that I will not deny. By November standards, this was a decent event and many can enjoy a white Thanksgiving. The shaft zone has been noted though. I'm still learning the history for up here since I just moved to PA for good a year ago. Seems like since after the early 2000's, some areas have really struggled.

Exactly.  When I saw that on the PIT sounding I knew this storm was going to be killed in the cradle.   The flip side for the dry air was that it allows things to get down to and stay near freezing for most of the area.

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The setup for early in the week looks very mild in terms of impact. The temps at the surface from all the globals are really spread out. The GFS sets up a fairly good CAD signal with its evolution of a 1045 high in Quebec bleeding cold air down east of the Apps. The Euro and Canadian are in the same picture, but the timing of the precip with the positioning of the high is off by 6-12 hrs which would be the difference of having wintery precip chances on Tuesday (GFS) or just some icy areas in the usual valley locations in CPA before transitioning to rain pretty quickly (Euro and Canadian). Right now, I'd stick with monitoring the situation over the coming few days to watch the evolution of the models and see if they trend colder at the lower levels. The progression of the high is pivotal and a slower retreating high of that magnitude would lock in colder air at the surface and provide some trouble as the warmer temps aloft try to work back into the region. Could be more of a classic CAD zr/ip look than a snow look, although GFS does have some front end snow in its evolution before turning icy. Just a heads up for anyone. Maybe some other posters/mets would like to jump in and give any other thoughts. I'm always welcome to conversation  :)

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Cold High in Quebec funneling down cold air east of the Apps in a classic CAD setup with overrunning precip attacking from the south. Nothing extreme, but could provide some frozen precip of snow/IP/ZR for travel headaches on Tuesday. Behind the front , a nice cold shot.

Ok Thanks

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