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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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I'm getting worried about temps for our area. My dewpoint is up to 35. Hard for the temp to crash with that.

HRRR crashes temps in the SE valleys once the low tracks near Hatteras. The low is still a couple hours from that. Any changeover we get before that is bonus. 10 AM seems like a good bet in SE counties with high elevations switching over soon (if not already).

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I'm getting worried about temps for our area. My dewpoint is up to 35. Hard for the temp to crash with that.

evaporational cooling is helping temps fall aloft and should help at surface when mixed down even with current dew points up.  I know I dont trust my outdoor sensor to accurately measure RH so some dew point measurements in area may be off

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I'm getting worried about temps for our area. My dewpoint is up to 35. Hard for the temp to crash with that.

This is probably my biggest concern as well. Hopefully as the storm moves up the east coast and intensifies, it'll continue to pull cooler air on the NW half and drop the dews a few degrees. Areas out west are set with DP's so they'll cash in quickly. Time to ride it out. I'm sure NWS is sweating a bit for the southern tier of counties
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AllWeather, any thoughts on the current virga storm we're stuck in here in WB? That's some impressive banding and I fear wasting it in this.

I wouldnt worry about wasting qpf same thing happened with the southwestern portion of that band and it looks to be all snow now... those under that band will likely changeover faster than those not so despite losing some qpf to evaporation you will see less as rain/mix than us further south

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HRRR crashes temps in the SE valleys once the low tracks near Hatteras. The low is still a couple hours from that. Any changeover we get before that is bonus. 10 AM seems like a good bet in SE counties with high elevations switching over soon (if not already).

Most guidance I saw last night had me snow by 8. Heck the people down in the advisory area well south of me were expecting snow by about 10. Plus the heaviest precip is from 7-11am. After that the precip is more moderate the rest if the day. Not sure where 6-8" is coming from if I don't change until 10. That's what I'm thinking right now. I may have been too bullish, and the nws for that matter.
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Most guidance I saw last night had me snow by 8. Heck the people down in the advisory area well south of me were expecting snow by about 10. Plus the heaviest precip is from 7-11am. After that the precip is more moderate the rest if the day. Not sure where 6-8" is coming from if I don't change until 10. That's what I'm thinking right now. I may have been too bullish, and the nws for that matter.

6-8" is probably too high. 4-6" is pretty reasonable outside of higher elevations.

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