wawarriors4 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is a huge hit. Very amped. Do you have any QPF specifics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Do you have any QPF specifics? avp 1.2 ipt .9 lns 1.2 mdt 1.1 unv .85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 avp 1.2 ipt .9 lns 1.2 mdt 1.1 unv .85 That's awesome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Do you have any QPF specifics? Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago ECMWF 00z west of previous 12z low track by 1.5° longitude -- stronger by 2-3 mb & some places double QPF ----------- .7 line extends basically all the way back to State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 avp 1.2 ipt .9 lns 1.2 mdt 1.1 unv .85 Hopefully this can be trusted, looking at OBS it looks like this thing is amped but the ECMWF is out of its range really, and not even the NAM is this bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Do you have any QPF specifics? basically the sharp cutoff from .6 to nothing runs sw to ne along the back edge of the laurel highlands. 1 inch qpf east og a line from just east of frostburg md to selinsgrove to the northeast tip of pa. The max precip area is 1.2+ that covers most of york, lancaster, berks, schuykill, carbon, monroe, and eastern luzerne counties. Ammounts to back down to about 1" east of there also. The max band is definitely right up east central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 basically the sharp cutoff from .6 to nothing runs sw to ne along the back edge of the laurel highlands. 1 inch qpf east og a line from just east of frostburg md to selinsgrove to the northeast tip of pa. The max precip area is 1.2+ that covers most of york, lancaster, berks, schuykill, carbon, monroe, and eastern luzerne counties. Ammounts to back down to about 1" east of there also. The max band is definitely right up east central PA. Wow...what causes the max precip.....is it meso banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 where is everyone I am so excited the channel from GOM impressive. and it is November! Im here brother! Looking good for North Central PA. We will see. This West trend has been really intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just waiting for this to start. Ya, i'm not sleeping. Never do night of a stormAnd I thought I was the only one who couldn't sleep the night of a storm. I hate when the blogs go dead around 2 am. I stay, and stay, and stay. Please, late nighters, keep posting. Im reading them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 So Ryan Mau says it went west 1.5 longitude. And I'm all like, how many miles is a longitude degree in the Northeast... sad to be dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 And I thought I was the only one who couldn't sleep the night of a storm. I hate when the blogs go dead around 2 am. I stay, and stay, and stay. Please, late nighters, keep posting. Im reading them. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I dont have as much time for "weathering" with a one month old at home but I threw together a map. Its also posted on my facebook page which I still will try to update from time to time. https://www.facebook.com/hoffmansmidatlanticwinterweatherpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow...what causes the max precip.....is it meso banding? deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 850's clearing the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like Lancaster should be seeing some snow and Harrisburg is next up. Morning Zak glad you stopped back! Dave you too. Good map PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This was my final call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 some of you might like this....new SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 better view, if you were looking for support for the euro qpf this might argue in favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sure is a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 6Z NAM is lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Some of you in NE PA might find some this set of HRRR animations useful... 15 minute temporal resolution. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 6Z NAM is lights out. NAM may be right now, but I honestly think we would be better off just never looking at it. Its more likely to reduce confidence by throwing out some crazy/wrong solution then it getting it right. Earlier it was way OTS, then way inland, then back east, at one point it did some weird banding thing and split the precip sheild in the mid atlantic...its a hot mess on wheels. Ok end of rant, enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NAM may be right now, but I honestly think we would be better off just never looking at it. Its more likely to reduce confidence by throwing out some crazy/wrong solution then it getting it right. Earlier it was way OTS, then way inland, then back east, at one point it did some weird banding thing and split the precip sheild in the mid atlantic...its a hot mess on wheels. Ok end of rant, enjoy the storm. Looks like 0Z euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like 0Z euro now. yea I have no problem with this particular run, I just mean in general, its more likely to hurt a forecast then help IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 yea I have no problem with this particular run, I just mean in general, its more likely to hurt a forecast then help IMO. Still fun to look at when it comes in with big runs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 welp I am up an ready for this to get going. 41 here at the house with winds picking up a bit. Curious to see how York/Lancaster folks are doing. How long until precip beginning to reach the surface then how long is it going to take to fall as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 welp I am up an ready for this to get going. 41 here at the house with winds picking up a bit. Curious to see how York/Lancaster folks are doing. How long until precip beginning to reach the surface then how long is it going to take to fall as snow. Nothing here yet and quite frankly I'm expecting a lot more wet than white will fall down this way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sitting here at 30F ready to rock and roll. Had a final look at things before I go get some sleep. Latest RAP and HRRR continue to hammer the eastern half of PA later this morning and this afternoon. This looks to be a fairly brisk 12 hours or less hard hitting heavy snow that will make roads difficult to navigate for awhile this afternoon into the evening hours. Things to watch this morning... how much (if any) mixiing or initial rain occurs in the far southern tier of the Sus Valley. A more extended period of mixed weather could knock snowfall amounts down towards the 4 inch end of the 4-8" range that is being forecast. I imagine that folks down that way with some elevation (like I-83 Blizzard) won't have much trouble getting over to snow quickly. As jm1220 mentioned earlier in the evening, there still could be some surprises in the central counties. There is solid support for at least 0.5"-0.7" QPF in the JST/AOO/UNV corridor via the SREFs and Euro, and I think this region will see the best ratios of anybody (colder aloft) if some heavier bands set up shop. I generally expect 4-5" inches for these places, but I think anywhere within this corridor has a good potential of reaching warning criteria if some of those wetter models end up verifying. I expect 4-7 inches for about all of the Lower Sus Valley (places like Harrisburg, Williamsport, York, Lancaster, Gettysburg with some higher ground or areas that get a persistent heavy band potentially getting into the 7-10 inch range. Up towards the Hazelton and WB-Scranton region I'm thinking 6-10" with up to a foot or so possible in the higher ground of NE PA. West and NW of JST/AOO/UNV corridor there will be a sharp cutoff in the more significant snow somewhere near a St. Marys-Dubois-Indiana-Latrobe line, where advisory amounts of 2-5" drop off to T-2 event for the rest of the western part of PA under I-80. Will have to watch the westward extent of the heavier snow, as a better push might try to get low end advisory amounts into the Pittsburgh metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow, crazy mild out there this morning. My station is reporting a steady 41F. Light rain is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RA/SN mix in Shippensburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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