MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Stupid question: how do you find your specific elevation? http://veloroutes.org/elevation/ Got this from Mitch in the MA subforum. Easy to use. I have it bookmarked now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 For State College, I'm not particularly liking the higher numbers. I think the 00z Hi-Res NAM is a much better representation than previous runs, and it gives us a solid six hours of snow... probably at about or just better than 1/2" per hour. The reason I say that is because I would have liked to have seen more development on the radar over Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee at this point if I thought the higher numbers would verify. Therefore, I'm going for 3-4 inches here in State College. I will definitely enjoy it, though. I will take any snow at all in November Mallow. I'm right there with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 As I said before that fetch of moisture is still happening in the GOM NAM overdone but think we will be on the higher end of totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0z GFS holds serve lesser than overdone NAM but same ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 2z RAP and HRRR are pure crush jobs for the LSV region. Something tells me someone like Cashtown or anyone located in the hill country of southern PA is going to get the business tomorrow. Impressive banding also being depicted by HRRR by morning and looks to keep on going for awhile. I'll say it again, someone is going to be very surprised tomorrow and others will be disappointed. Welcome to marginal MA events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Cashtown might see 10" from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Currently 32/23 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Millville, I can't see the HRRR image (access forbidden). P.s. thanks for posting all the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Millville, I can't see the HRRR image (access forbidden). P.s. thanks for posting all the updates! Ahhh, I just deleted the image. The image was the final hour of the HRRR (Not it's most accurate range, but it virtually stayed the course from its 1z run. It was basically all snow N&W of I95 with decent banding extending back into the corridor. 850 temps crash starting 11z and by 15z, it was down to -3 in the LSV and areas north of there near -4. Lower levels looked alright with temps around 32-33 for basically everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 No prob, thanks for the details. Ahhh, I just deleted the image. The image was the final hour of the HRRR (Not it's most accurate range, but it virtually stayed the course from its 1z run. It was basically all snow N&W of I95 with decent banding extending back into the corridor. 850 temps crash starting 11z and by 15z, it was down to -3 in the LSV and areas north of there near -4. Lower levels looked alright with temps around 32-33 for basically everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I will take any snow at all in November Mallow. I'm right there with you i completely agree. for the western side of PA or Ny, for that matter, to receive significant snow, we will need to see a western flair up of precip over kentucky and tennessee. the lack thereof suggests the sharp cutoff on the 0z NAM is most likely correct. I got excited earlier this afternoon when I saw some satellite flair up (see Bernie Raynos post), but since then I'm seeing some eastern correction to this storm. But I'll continue to watch with baited breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Cloud shield seems to be rolling in now to MD area. Temps will spike some in all areas as we lose radiational cooling aspect. The winds will begin to pick up in the early morning hours out of the NE and hold temps steady. Once precip kicks in, we'll see an area wide evap cooling and temperatures will slowly fall to wet bulb temps. Those with lower dp's will wet bulb faster and transition over to snow quicker or even some spots just start as a mix with sleet as the layer between 850-925 will have a slight warm nose to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 i completely agree. for the western side of PA or Ny, for that matter, to receive significant snow, we will need to see a western flair up of precip over kentucky and tennessee. the lack thereof suggests the sharp cutoff on the 0z NAM is most likely correct. I got excited earlier this afternoon when I saw some satellite flair up (see Bernie Raynos post), but since then I'm seeing some eastern correction to this storm. But I'll continue to watch with baited breath. You might squeak out a little bit of precip, but I probably wouldn't count on it up there in WNY. I'll say this, at least you won't be fighting surface temps like most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Going to say 4-8" here...a little lower only b/c of the lower ratio risk and the warm surface temps might hinder accumulation early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm heading to bed, but I'll be up early to check on everything. I hope I wake up to a wall of moisture heading this way. Night all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 State offices in hbg closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 a thing of beauty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 still a fetch from GOM going on.....wow. Radar returns are very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hey guys. Made the trip up. Wasn't rolling the dice down by DC. Ready for some snow in the Castle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 a thing of beauty: look at that moisture feed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 where is everyone I am so excited the channel from GOM impressive. and it is November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hey guys. Made the trip up. Wasn't rolling the dice down by DC. Ready for some snow in the Castle. Hi Zac! Nice to have you drop in and pay us a visit. Looking forward to your input for us during the storm. Currently I have 35.2 / 32.6 with overcast skies and minimal winds of less than 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 where is everyone I am so excited the channel from GOM impressive. and it is November! Such an extensive precip field...and continuing to get fed by the GOM. Hopefully, finally, this Miller A is for us. I'm not sure I can remember the last time a Miller A came up close to the coast and I-95 was rain and we were snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Such an extensive precip field...and continuing to get fed by the GOM. Hopefully, finally, this Miller A is for us. I'm not sure I can remember the last time a Miller A came up close to the coast and I-95 was rain and we were snow.me either....Miller A has been zero for many years. radar looks so impressive for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Surprised UNV has a warning up and the point and click only shows 2-4" of snow. The warnings should have been hoisted up the next tier of counties SE. This might still have some surprises back to I-99 so I wouldn't count it out-that's a nice fetch coming from the tropics. It's obviously going to dump plenty where I am but as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 is everyone feeling like we been there done that? this is the real deal tomorrow. all is coming together nicely. Miller A's what a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is really juiced up. Looks good for some heavy precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is really juiced up. Looks good for some heavy precip!Look at current radar! love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just waiting for this to start. Ya, i'm not sleeping. Never do night of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is a huge hit. Very amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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