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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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Whats the chance of Severe weather the next couple days, anyone have thoughts?

12z operational NAM and, to a lessen extent, the GFS both show some medium CAPE / high helicity values for Wednesday.  Given the rich influx of low level moisture, it would not surprise me to see a few EF-0 / EF-1 tornadoes get spun up over the next 48 hours.  Not a widespread thing, localized heavy rain is the bigger threat, but it's definitely a possibility.

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I don't know which office put this out as I saw it posted on Facebook, but if this were winter, and the storm mostly snow, there would have been much wailing and gnashing of teeth over here in the CPA forum...lol

 

attachicon.gif10600569_883095331710279_6599361851580224689_n.jpg

What an awful graphic.  If it had been winter no one would have seen 2-3" of precip and the distribution would likely have been much smoother...those high amounts in NJ in particular were from convective elements we wouldn't have seen in December-February.

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What an awful graphic.  If it had been winter no one would have seen 2-3" of precip and the distribution would likely have been much smoother...those high amounts in NJ in particular were from convective elements we wouldn't have seen in December-February.

My thoughts exactly - coastal waters would be much colder dec-feb and PWAT levels would likely be lower.  Some banding with higher rates would be possible but the strong onshore flow from the cooler but not frozen ocean water when those bands produced the 2+" rainfall would have kept the sites near coast in NJ and north likely too warm to be good accumulating snow.  Say a good band of snow did develop with rates similar to what we see with good lake effect, the ratios would really throw off this estimate as well.  Too many other factors would have needed to come in play for this to even be worth generating and posting.

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I don't know which office put this out as I saw it posted on Facebook, but if this were winter, and the storm mostly snow, there would have been much wailing and gnashing of teeth over here in the CPA forum...lol

 

attachicon.gif10600569_883095331710279_6599361851580224689_n.jpg

lot of "Ifs"....................And if is a big word........if my Aunt had Balls she'd be my uncle! :poster_oops:  :jerry:

 

I think even i could make a better graphic then that!

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