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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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Currently 41 here.

 

Anyway. Help me out guys. I have to deliver a 2 stop load tomorrow. One in York and one in Hanover. I'll be leaving Hazleton hopefully by 4:00am. Obviously running down I-81 to I-83. What can I expect down in the York area between 6:00am and 8:00am? Rain, a mix, or snow?

 

I know my day is going to pretty much suck tomorrow, but if I can get those 2 stops delivered before it gets really bad, then the worst I may have to deal with is the return trip north up on I-81.

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Currently 41 here.

 

Anyway. Help me out guys. I have to deliver a 2 stop load tomorrow. One in York and one in Hanover. I'll be leaving Hazleton hopefully by 4:00am. Obviously running down I-81 to I-83. What can I expect down in the York area between 6:00am and 8:00am? Rain, a mix, or snow?

 

I know my day is going to pretty much suck tomorrow, but if I can get those 2 stops delivered before it gets really bad, then the worst I may have to deal with is the return trip north up on I-81.

 

I think you'll run into a mix on the verge of changing to snow shortly there after. Hanover may just be snow at that point. Be safe on that trip. That will be some trek tomorrow, although roads may just be wet at that point of the day.

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I think you'll run into a mix on the verge of changing to snow shortly there after. Hanover may just be snow at that point. Be safe on that trip. That will be some trek tomorrow, although roads may just be wet at that point of the day.

 

Thanks. Wet roads would be nice, at least until I get the two stops delivered.

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Currently 41 here.

 

Anyway. Help me out guys. I have to deliver a 2 stop load tomorrow. One in York and one in Hanover. I'll be leaving Hazleton hopefully by 4:00am. Obviously running down I-81 to I-83. What can I expect down in the York area between 6:00am and 8:00am? Rain, a mix, or snow?

 

I know my day is going to pretty much suck tomorrow, but if I can get those 2 stops delivered before it gets really bad, then the worst I may have to deal with is the return trip north up on I-81.

If you have a smart phone I'm sure there will be plenty of obs posted here. Also as you prob know penndot has tons of cameras on 81 and 83 and even 30.

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43 at my house... with westerly wind right off the Susquehanna I don't trust the 35 dew point at MDT right now.... the 37 at York airport is a thing of beauty the way it is able to drop so rapidly after sunset being located in a bit of a valley... really a good indicator for radiational cooling potential in the region

 

21z HRRR has precip moving in to susq valley 5-7am

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43 at my house... with westerly wind right off the Susquehanna I don't trust the 35 dew point at MDT right now.... the 37 at York airport is a thing of beauty the way it is able to drop so rapidly after sunset being located in a bit of a valley... really a good indicator for radiational cooling potential in the region

 

21z HRRR has precip moving in to susq valley 5-7am

 

I was about to say, the early looks from the HRRR and RAP look pretty healthy so far. Radar starting to build in the southeast. Don't forget about SPC mesoanalysis if you guys want to monitor some of the parameters in more real time as the storm approaches.

 

Here are surface wet bulb temps and critical thicknesses currently.

post-1507-0-12235500-1416959439_thumb.gi

 

post-1507-0-85785100-1416959475_thumb.gi

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Ive been watching all the posts regarding temps on the ground. honestly, I dont know how much that matters 'right' now, what is important are 850 temp progged to be in your area DURING the precip. Once we get closer to the event wet bulb temps will also be important. But I wouldn't recommend getting caught up in 'my temp was supposed to be 42 right now but its only 39'. I don't think (through experience) that matters much. just my 2 cents- check the 850 maps on the short term models, especially rapid refresh versions. If you see a TREND there, that IS a big deal. Good luck everyone, I'm on the western most edge of this one in Rochester NY, so hopefully I'm an unbiased observer in suggesting east of 95 is looking tougher and tougher to thread that needle. For big snow totals, I'd want to be at least 50 miles NW of that interstate. The further north one goes, the closer the snow will be to 95, but the megalopolis will not see accumulations from this one. Too bad it aint January. Poconos and Catskills look awesome, as does NEPA and Albany South. With any luck N Central PA and Central Ny will get in on the action too, IE: williamsport, Ithaca, Utica line. West of that line, the dynamics dont look to allow it, especially with daylight and ground temps. Drive safe travellers.

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Thanks for the post! How much did you get from the LES last week?

Ive been watching all the posts regarding temps on the ground. honestly, I dont know how much that matters 'right' now, what is important are 850 temp progged to be in your area DURING the precip. Once we get closer to the event wet bulb temps will also be important. But I wouldn't recommend getting caught up in 'my temp was supposed to be 42 right now but its only 39'. I don't think (through experience) that matters much. just my 2 cents- check the 850 maps on the short term models, especially rapid refresh versions. If you see a TREND there, that IS a big deal. Good luck everyone, I'm on the western most edge of this one in Rochester NY, so hopefully I'm an unbiased observer in suggesting east of 95 is looking tougher and tougher to thread that needle. For big snow totals, I'd want to be at least 50 miles NW of that interstate. The further north one goes, the closer the snow will be to 95, but the megalopolis will not see accumulations from this one. Too bad it aint January. Poconos and Catskills look awesome, as does NEPA and Albany South. With any luck N Central PA and Central Ny will get in on the action too, IE: williamsport, Ithaca, Utica line. West of that line, the dynamics dont look to allow it, especially with daylight and ground temps. Drive safe travellers.

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honestly the other drivers on the road... will be interesting to see when PennDot starts treating roads

They have already been pre-treating roads around here this afternoon. Must've learned their lesson from the Saturday debacle.

It was down to 35 in Bellwood, up a little higher where I-99 runs it was still 40ish. Def some varying local radiational cooling this evening.

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