canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Per ORX_wearher: Euro is a good tick east of 12z through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From ineedsnow: Slightly east of the 12z run, but still the western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Per ORX_wearher: Euro is a good tick east of 12z through 72 hours. Certainly for the New Englanders, but for us it looks largely the same as the 12z run precip wise.. a sizable to significant hit for central/eastern PA and measurable getting back to Pittsburgh. The big difference was the low once up to the New England coast, instead of running aground in Connecticut.. the lows more towards Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow what a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Certainly for the New Englanders, but for us it looks largely the same as the 12z run precip wise.. a sizable to significant hit for central/eastern PA and measurable getting back to Pittsburgh.Yup, I see that now (I couldn't see images). Colder, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That was about as good as a run for the LSV as you'll see for this event. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So it feels like it could be screw job NEPA, but I'm not totally sure. What does precip/temps look like for KAVP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So it feels like it could be screw job NEPA, but I'm not totally sure. What does precip/temps look like for KAVP? Looks like a fair hit actually for NEPA. Looks like ~ 1" of liquid. Still analyzing. Overall a great run for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So it feels like it could be screw job NEPA, but I'm not totally sure. What does precip/temps look like for KAVP? looks like between .8 and 1.0 qpf on the euro around AVP. A very solid hit for central and eastern PA this run. Very consistent with the last few runs of the euro. The east shift was mostly for up in New England as the low slides more east instead of inland up into Mass once past the benchmark. The low is still tucked into the coast until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So it feels like it could be screw job NEPA, but I'm not totally sure. What does precip/temps look like for KAVP? There is no screw job on the latest euro run for nepa. You are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here was the money frame from the Canadian at Hr 72, there a little bit of additional at 84 as well. Bottom right map is the 12hr precip in mm. Talk about a big shift from 12z wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looks like between .8 and 1.0 qpf on the euro around AVP. A very solid hit for central and eastern PA this run. Very consistent with the last few runs of the euro. The east shift was mostly for up in New England as the low slides more east instead of inland up into Mass once past the benchmark. The low is still tucked into the coast until then. Looks like a fair hit actually for NEPA. Looks like ~ 1" of liquid. Still analyzing. Overall a great run for many That is great to hear, hoping for a decent storm. Headed up to NEPA on Tuesday night from Virginia.....not sure what it will be like around Fredericksburg, VA....a Snowy Thanksgiving in Scranton would be great! Thanks for the info and analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looks like between .8 and 1.0 qpf on the euro around AVP. A very solid hit for central and eastern PA this run. Very consistent with the last few runs of the euro. The east shift was mostly for up in New England as the low slides more east instead of inland up into Mass once past the benchmark. The low is still tucked into the coast until then. PSU, you had to have liked that run for your neck of the woods. Pretty impressive H5 setup and the fact there is now a 2 mb greater High in the Ontario region (1029 vs 1027), that might have helped the lower levels a bit. Nothing extreme, but minor changes can impact the forecast greatly. About as good as it gets for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It'd be quite something to see a white Thanksgiving before a white Christmas (not since the blizzard in 2002 really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here was the money frame from the Canadian at Hr 72, there a little bit of additional at 84 as well. Bottom right map is the 12hr precip in mm. Talk about a big shift from 12z wow. 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg That is about as big a turn around as you'll see. That looks really nice for the area. I like my idea of the best snow. I'm sticking with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 PSU, you had to have liked that run for your neck of the woods. Pretty impressive H5 setup and the fact there is now a 2 mb greater High in the Ontario region (1029 vs 1027), that might have helped the lower levels a bit. Nothing extreme, but minor changes can impact the forecast greatly. About as good as it gets for November I am back in Manchester MD right along the PA border south of Hanover. Have good elevation here and am starting to get a good feeling about this for my area. Right now most guidance crushes this area pretty good, and my elevation, about 1000 ft usually helps in these borderline temp situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I am back in Manchester MD right along the PA border south of Hanover. Have good elevation here and am starting to get a good feeling about this for my area. Right now most guidance crushes this area pretty good, and my elevation, about 1000 ft usually helps in these borderline temp situations. Yeah, that area was a hot spot last year I remember. Elevation will help a ton in this setup. I think that whole area in northern MD and southern PA will benefit greatly in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Gee near record temps today. Maybe our first snow on Wednesday and then back to cold. Talk about a mixed bag. Should be interesting to see how the models preform this year. Will be nice to have some snow for Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's 64 at my house right now. IT CANT SNOW WEDNESDAY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Overnight CTP downgraded me from 1-3 to less than an inch and rain most of the day. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Overnight CTP downgraded me from 1-3 to less than an inch and rain most of the day. Weird. Their consistency on the snow maps change from run-to-run. It's rather annoying to see a lack of consistency like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could see some higher accumulations (8"+) across the higher elevations of the LSV (South Mountain, Blue Ridge, etc.). Northerly flow and evaporational/dynamic cooling should allow temperatures to be cold enough across the entire area bearing no large western shift in the track. I'll be headed home just in time to see this storm, which is fortunate as Ithaca will likely be skunked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could see some higher accumulations (8"+) across the higher elevations of the LSV (South Mountain, Blue Ridge, etc.). Northerly flow and evaporational/dynamic cooling should allow temperatures to be cold enough across the entire area bearing no large western shift in the track. I'll be headed home just in time to see this time, which is fortunate as Ithaca will likely be skunked again. Safe travels home! You graduate in Dec or May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Overnight CTP downgraded me from 1-3 to less than an inch and rain most of the day. Weird. Things that I am seeing that are already driving me crazy with some of the local media are: 1) Saying warmer water over ocean will pull warmer air in to cause temperature issues. That is fine for near the coast but none of the models are far enough west right now for it to be the case for Susq Valley where they were discussing. 2) Stating that the event will occur during daytime and questioning if the temperatures will be cold enough as a result. Peak sun angle is just under 29 degrees, meaning minimal impact. 3) Forecast highs for Wednesday based on MOS data. MOS errors for both NAM and GFS have been about as bad as I have ever seen them across the US the past few weeks with the air masses that have been quite a bit off of normal temperatures. This could mean that current forecast temps for Wednesday could be factoring in normal highs and lows where actuals could very well end up a few degrees either warmer or colder. Climo is not on our side which is something to keep in mind despite what the Euro seems locked in on making this too easy to swing either way as boom or bust. Only once has there even been 1"+ of snow in Harrisburg on November 26th on record! (1898 - 2.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Accuweather already saying 8-12 for Mount Joy. Let the panic begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Safe travels home! You graduate in Dec or May? Thanks! I graduate in May and then likely off to graduate school for further atmospheric sciences (applying currently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could see some higher accumulations (8"+) across the higher elevations of the LSV (South Mountain, Blue Ridge, etc.). Northerly flow and evaporational/dynamic cooling should allow temperatures to be cold enough across the entire area bearing no large western shift in the track. I'll be headed home just in time to see this storm, which is fortunate as Ithaca will likely be skunked again. I like south mountain up thru big flat ridge with this one. 2000ft should come in handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Accuweather already saying 8-12 for Mount Joy. Let the panic begin. Looking forward to it...Noss Road and Old Joseph Road should be fun to drive in the Subaru! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Things that I am seeing that are already driving me crazy with some of the local media are: 1) Saying warmer water over ocean will pull warmer air in to cause temperature issues. That is fine for near the coast but none of the models are far enough west right now for it to be the case for Susq Valley where they were discussing. 2) Stating that the event will occur during daytime and questioning if the temperatures will be cold enough as a result. Peak sun angle is just under 29 degrees, meaning minimal impact. 3) Forecast highs for Wednesday based on MOS data. MOS errors for both NAM and GFS have been about as bad as I have ever seen them across the US the past few weeks with the air masses that have been quite a bit off of normal temperatures. This could mean that current forecast temps for Wednesday could be factoring in normal highs and lows where actuals could very well end up a few degrees either warmer or colder. Climo is not on our side which is something to keep in mind despite what the Euro seems locked in on making this too easy to swing either way as boom or bust. Only once has there even been 1"+ of snow in Harrisburg on November 26th on record! (1898 - 2.8") I hate #2's argument. Ugh. I'm just very happy we are staying here this Tgiving and not going to Texas like we always do, because we would've flown from BWI Wednesday afternoon per usual. Glad that nightmare isn't an issue for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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