MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was busy this afternoon and just getting a look at the days models.. boy i some of the Mid-Atl/PHL/NYC crowd wasn't liking that Euro run today. It's track is classic for the Sus Valley AND most of central PA. I commented yesterday about liking the western ridge positioning for a change.. which will feature a 500 ridge axis near or a bit west of Boise. That kinda argues more towards the Euro end of the spectrum with the storm track IMO... given that we get enough of a phase. I know everyone's set in their ways of it avoids C-PA in any way possible, but we're due for one of these type storms. This is definitely one I'm watching closely with how models do, as we *appear* to be in a familiar spot with the Euro and ensembles seemingly locked in and the GFS (and other models) playing catch up...or maybe they're going to pull the coup. The Euro operational has in fact been ticking closer to the coast the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 60's tomorrow and if anything on wed will catch a lot of people off guard. S&S is already calling for Major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 60's tomorrow and if anything on wed will catch a lot of people off guard. S&S is already calling for Major storm. And you know there will be the ignorant "But it's warm today, how will it snow in two days" crowd coming out of the woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12Z Euro has the surface low tracking inside of Hatteras between 18Z Wed and 0Z Thurs. Just east of the Delmarva at 0Z Thurs. Really great track for Central PA. Over the Delmarva would be even better. We had one Miller A last year (which also tracked inside of Hatteras), and it delivered 9.5" to State College. With a Death Band. 12Z Euro Ensembles have a mean of 6" in State College. About 12 of 50 members below 2" and 12 of 50 members above 9". Only 2 members show a complete miss. One member shows 20". I think 10:1 is realistic with this storm. I can see higher ratios under bands, but maybe lower ratios when the event starts. The Miller A last year was 14:1, but it was a considerably colder storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What's up with rain later radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Regardless of the Wed event, lots of cold air in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 What are the Harrisburg snowfall records for November? I figure you have numbers gathered being you can determine difference between a significant and historic storm. Historic is a Federal disaster, significant is warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 no matter what happens, there will be the snow bunny rush. Eggs, milk and bread will be in short supply. We decided to stay home this year so we don't have to travel anywhere. I also seem to remember a huge snow storm on thanksgiving when I was a kid. Any one have a clue? it would have been early 70s and hit the eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Regardless of the Wed event, lots of cold air in the mid to long range. And yet, just last week we were talking about a potential warm period from this weekend through the middle of December. Something tells me that we're about to experience last winter once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 no matter what happens, there will be the snow bunny rush. Eggs, milk and bread will be in short supply. We decided to stay home this year so we don't have to travel anywhere. I also seem to remember a huge snow storm on thanksgiving when I was a kid. Any one have a clue? it would have been early 70s and hit the eastern PA. I don't remember quite that far back. I would have been around 13 but I had not yet become a weenie. The Thanksgiving that I remember most for a snow storm was 1989. North Jersey...woke up to 8" on the ground. I think that has been and remains my personal biggest November snowstorm. BTW...had a low of 11.9 degrees yesterday morning with HEAVY frost covering everything. I'm pretty sure that that low temp is the earliest coldest temp I have ever recorded. So many significant early wx events this month...my head is spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z GFS says I-95 wins again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Screw Job for NEPA? Yep except maybe the Poconos, that model verbatim...if the Euro goes east we lose...again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z GFS says I-95 wins again...Temp issues maybe there though, right? GGEM gives a solid Susky Valley hit (1.5" or so if I'm reading correctly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Temp issues maybe there though, right? GGEM gives a solid Susky Valley hit (1.5" or so if I'm reading correctly). Seems to be the word on the street that it finally went towards the other models. Waiting on that Canadian P-type loop product to have a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems to be the word on the street that it finally went towards the other models. Waiting on that Canadian P-type loop product to have a good look.Looking forward to reading your thoughts after the Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Regardless of the Wed event, lots of cold air in the mid to long range. This is def true for the mid-range, but the longer range after this weekend has been a bit of a toss-up on the models. It's generally looked like we might see a bit more of a break in the winter weather department as the Pac NW has been lit up with storminess (-PNA) and the NAO is forecast to be solidly positive. The AO is also supposed to go into positive territory as well supporting the possibility that arctic air might get bottled up north in Canada. This all suggests we might eventually end up on the warmer side of a zonal Pacific influenced pattern for a time. At least that's what it looks like right now... it had looked similar last week for this coming week and here we are with a two day warm up followed by our first sizable coastal snow potential of the winter and more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking closer at the 0z runs, they shifted east quite a bit. That's bad for us, right? Don't we all need it coming more west? IE more east = more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Temp issues maybe there though, right? GGEM gives a solid Susky Valley hit (1.5" or so if I'm reading correctly). Do you mean 1.5" of snow or 1.5" of liquid (mostly or all in the form of snow)? Also, more east just equals less snow, not more rain, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My thoughts. Details: http://www.hwpcwx.com/#!story1/com4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking closer at the 0z runs, they shifted east quite a bit. That's bad for us, right? Don't we all need it coming more west? IE more east = more rain. More west would mean more warm air. But too far east and we're fringed once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My thoughts. Details: http://www.hwpcwx.com/#!story1/com4 Hi!Thanks for posting this; you're very bullish for CTP's area ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Do you mean 1.5" of snow or 1.5" of liquid (mostly or all in the form of snow)? Also, more east just equals less snow, not more rain, I think. Sorry, liquid. I'm not very good at reading that, keep in mind ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hi! Thanks for posting this; you're very bullish for CTP's area ... Just posting it how I see it DT is bullish as well. Find me on www.facebook.com/hwpcma and twitter.com/hwpcwx as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking closer at the 0z runs, they shifted east quite a bit. That's bad for us, right? Don't we all need it coming more west? IE more east = more rain. GFS really hasn't changed an extreme amount between 12 and 0z today, nor has the GEFS mean. The 0z mean looks like it has a bit more precip into PA but when comparing the low positioning to the 12z run it's like the eye doctor asking you if 1 or 2 is better over and over again and your squinting to tell the difference. 0z GFS op looked a bit faster than 12z. The NAMs a bit of a hot mess trying to see this storm but the NAM is a hot mess in general through about the -06 hour mark. Until I see concession from the Euro and it's supportive ensembles, I gonna lean on the westward end of guidance (towards Euro) bc of the favorable western ridge positioning being progged out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 More west would mean more warm air. But too far east and we're fringed once again. If your back home I think you'll be in a good spot. Currently we would need a solution even further west than today's 12z Euro run to worry about any mixing issues in eastern PA save for the far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS really hasn't changed an extreme amount between 12 and 0z today, nor has the GEFS mean. The 0z mean looks like it has a bit more precip into PA but when comparing the low positioning to the 12z run it's like the eye doctor asking you if 1 or 2 is better over and over again and your squinting to tell the difference. 0z GFS op looked a bit faster than 12z. The NAMs a bit of a hot mess trying to see this storm but the NAM is a hot mess in general through about the -06 hour mark. Until I see concession from the Euro and it's supportive ensembles, I gonna lean on the westward end of guidance (towards Euro) bc of the favorable western ridge positioning being progged out west. If your back home I think you'll be in a good spot. Currently we would need a solution even further west than today's 12z Euro run to worry about any mixing issues in eastern PA save for the far southeast. Thanks for your thoughts MAG. I like the idea for this storm to be a pretty good one along the southern PA/LSV area out to eastern Franklin county and as far east as eastern Chester county. The area around Philly I think is where the mixing problems begin. That area outlined is the best accumulation area and draw the line NE. I think parts of southern areas start as some rain/snow mix, but transition quickly over to all snow as the lower column cools. Could be a decent storm for the area and it's only November. This is just bonus snow in my book. Thoughts would be greatly appreciated from anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks for your thoughts MAG. I like the idea for this storm to be a pretty good one along the southern PA/LSV area out to eastern Franklin county and as far east as eastern Chester county. The area around Philly I think is where the mixing problems begin. That area outlined is the best accumulation area and draw the line NE. I think parts of southern areas start as some rain/snow mix, but transition quickly over to all snow as the lower column cools. Could be a decent storm for the area and it's only November. This is just bonus snow in my book. Thoughts would be greatly appreciated from anyone Ya ya man! Bonus snow My thoughts posted in link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS really hasn't changed an extreme amount between 12 and 0z today, nor has the GEFS mean. The 0z mean looks like it has a bit more precip into PA but when comparing the low positioning to the 12z run it's like the eye doctor asking you if 1 or 2 is better over and over again and your squinting to tell the difference. 0z GFS op looked a bit faster than 12z. The NAMs a bit of a hot mess trying to see this storm but the NAM is a hot mess in general through about the -06 hour mark. Until I see concession from the Euro and it's supportive ensembles, I gonna lean on the westward end of guidance (towards Euro) bc of the favorable western ridge positioning being progged out west. I think some people were comparing the 0z gfs to the 18z and that is where they got the idea that it trended east, both on the op and the ensembles. 18z was the most west run of the gfs and 0z did slide east a bit but it wasnt that big a deal. UK and GGEM are now west of the GFS and we will see about the euro very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If your back home I think you'll be in a good spot. Currently we would need a solution even further west than today's 12z Euro run to worry about any mixing issues in eastern PA save for the far southeast. I'm starting to get more concerned about another miss to the east tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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