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Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014


Eskimo Joe

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**Preliminary** 2014-2015 NOAA/NWS Winter Outlook: Not decisively cold and snowy for the eastern U.S.

The preliminary forecast from the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for equal chances of a cooler than normal, warmer than normal or normal winter for most of the Mid-Atlantic states -- including much of Central Pennsylvania -- and leans slightly toward warmer than normal conditions from the extreme northern reaches of the Mid-Atlantic region into New England and Northeast U.S.

For precipitation, the forecast assigns equal odds of normal, above, or below normal rain and snow for the region.

The outlooks do not give specifics for snow amounts, just overall precipitation.

The long-range forecast and associated maps represent CPC's “preliminary outlook” for temperature and precipitation during December 2014, and January-February 2015. The slight tilt in the odds to favor warm conditions in the Northern U.S., and cool and damp conditions in the South reflects a typical weak El Niño pattern (combined with model forecasts) – which is forecast to develop. However, there is still some uncertainty.

Seasonal forecasts have progressed some over the last several years and can be used as a guide, but still can and do go wrong. The most reliable seasonal forecasts for winter are issued later in the October and November time frame, although even they are not foolproof. Last year was a perfect example.

Admittedly, last winter's forecast was simply not a good forecast in which near normal to above normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. were predicted and it turned out brutally cold and snowy. The cause of the tough winter, well known by now as the polar vortex, was distorted by a strong and persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the west coast of the United States. We are still trying to figure out why that ridge maintained its position so persistently.

The CPC will issue its official outlook on October 16, 2014.

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Awesome! Yeah we were out scanning that storm with the DOW most of the afternoon and evening.

 

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Oh cool.  I'll get a picture or two up sometime today.  There is still some hail piled up near the Joel Confer Ford dealership by my office this morning.

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