Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The Euro is too low but I'm starting to think the other models are too high. Too early to say..the gfs is 1-1.25" give or take...seems pretty reasonable if it rains for the next 8-10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Did anyone see the 6z NAM? I urge everyone to resist this garbage model come winter time. If you shifted the axis of heaviest rain south by about 50 miles it wouldn't be that far off, though I doubt anyone receives more than 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The GFS SREF mean looks like it has the best handle on the rainfall so far and has the steadiest rains this morning followed by more showery lighter rains winding down this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The GFS SREF mean looks like it has the best handle on the rainfall so far and has the steadiest rains this morning followed by more showery lighter rains winding down this afternoon. Take a look at the radar and the HRRR, does this look like it's going to start winding down soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Take a look at the radar and the HRRR, does this look like it's going to start winding down soon? I said during this afternoon. The SREF mean and GFS only have a few tenths to a quarter after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Take a look at the radar and the HRRR, does this look like it's going to start winding down soon? The radar had been getting weaker and weaker with every frame. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The radar had been getting weaker and weaker with every frame. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing this. It's because of the deformation band which is now lifting north of your area and into mine. It has resulted in some subsidence on either side. I just don't see how things are going to clear out. The surface low is nearly stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The radar had been getting weaker and weaker with every frame. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing this. No I see it too. Definitely light and showery now stretching down to 195...that heavier stuff to the south should move through later but is definitely in no hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro looks good for NYC, but did not do well in srn NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro looks good for NYC, but did not do well in srn NJ. Atlantic City is over 2" total already. http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/meso_base.cgi?stn=KACY&time=GMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It's because of the deformation band which is now lifting north of your area and into mine. It has resulted in some subsidence on either side. I just don't see how things are going to clear out. The surface low is nearly stalled. The steadiest stuff is done by 18z with only lingering light showers or drizzle after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The steadiest stuff is done by 18z with only lingering light showers or drizzle after. I guess we will see then, I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Hot off the presses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It's because of the deformation band which is now lifting north of your area and into mine. It has resulted in some subsidence on either side. I just don't see how things are going to clear out. The surface low is nearly stalled. I don't think we'll clear out. I think even with the low in no hurry to leave it just won't be producing any significant precipitation to make any large impact on the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Hot off the presses We'll have to see some improvement in the radar to get something like this to verify. I'm not saying that can't happen but this is a wait and see situation, at least in my opinion (which may not be worth much ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 More convection of NJ, that we discussed yesterday. Probably lead lower rain amounts for NYC metro. Unless we get a soaking from the comma-head like the NAM and SREF show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 the euro already busted at ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The 09z SREF is an additional inch plus for everyone. Even though the rain over the immediate metro area looks showery at the moment, echos look to be filling in down south. This system is in no rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Even as the event was almost upon the region, the 9/25 0z ECMWF printed out some amazingly low QPF figures. The following are the ECMWF figures for select cities and total rainfall through 9 am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Even as the event was almost upon the region, the 9/25 0z ECMWF printed out some amazingly low QPF figures. The following are the ECMWF figures for select cities and total rainfall through 9 am: Nice table, I hope to see you update it throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I guess we will see then, I disagree. As that comma head over PA rolls east it will weaken so you will get some light rain or drizzle after 18z with the heaviest rainfall accumulations over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 As that comma head over PA rolls east it will weaken so you will get some light rain or drizzle after 18z with the heaviest rainfall accumulations over. The radar looks good so far here. The 12z NAM is very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The NAM has over 1" just from 2pm thru tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The NAM has over 1" just from 2pm thru tonight... I really don't understand why people are saying that the radar doesn't look good. Everything looks pretty healthy on KDIX. I think the recent dry periods have made people very skeptical in general. 0.11" in the bucket so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro looks good for NYC, but did not do well in srn NJ. Euro had .09" for NYC. That's good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Both the latest HRRR and NAM give NYC and LI a good rain event now. Well over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 0.23" so far here, much less than radar estimated. I'd be surprised to record more than 0.5" for the event. Low level dry air's eating away at the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 0.23" so far here, much less than radar estimated. I'd be surprised to record more than 0.5" for the event. Low level dry air's eating away at the precip shield. Its hard to tell. The radar shield looked good, then it started to weaken, now it looks pretty good again but doesn't have too much heavy rain embedded just steady light to moderate rain. This may end up being more of a duration event than heavy rain. Since the NAM has the rain lasting through tonight we may get our 1-2" amounts rather than seeing it all in 6 hours like the models were previously showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The NAM doesn't clear things out until after 2AM. The HRRR breaks things up for awhile before filling back in this afternoon. I think the game tonight is in real question, although they would probably play in light steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The NAM doesn't clear things out until after 2AM. The HRRR breaks things up for awhile before filling back in this afternoon. I think the game tonight is in real question, although they would probably play in light steady rain. It's not like Jeter hasn't had enough farewells already. Its the risk you run with baseball and having no days off for make ups at the end of the season. Obviously if the game was meaningful they'd have to squeeze it in before Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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