IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Really sharp cutoff on the Nam..2"+ over south Jersey to less than 1" north and eastIt's more like 3" plus SNJ and 1.50" plus for CNJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Screwgie for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It's more like 3" plus SNJ and 1.50" plus for CNJ and NYC. NYC is .82" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 NYC is .82" How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 can you zoom in that map-impossible to see NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 can you zoom in that map-impossible to see NYC It's not hard to tell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 can you zoom in that map-impossible to see NYC Only once E-Wall finishes updating. My SV maps showed >1" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 How? Sharp cutoff of heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 How? You can blow it up and kinda see the .75-1" shade going along 78..anyway here's the text output NAM/WRF 80Km FORECAST FOR: NYC LAT= 40.77 LON= -73.98 ELE= 89 8P SEP24 SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 8P 24-SEP 17.1 7.7 1034 72 25 590 562 THU 2A 25-SEP 16.1 11.8 1031 85 54 0.01 589 563 THU 8A 25-SEP 15.8 12.1 1028 88 79 0.09 588 564 THU 2P 25-SEP 15.9 12.4 1026 84 98 0.33 588 566 THU 8P 25-SEP 16.4 13.2 1023 86 98 0.35 586 567 FRI 2A 26-SEP 17.0 13.1 1022 81 97 0.03 584 566 FRI 8A 26-SEP 16.2 13.0 1022 81 82 0.01 585 566 FRI 2P 26-SEP 22.0 13.1 1022 58 61 0.00 586 567 FRI 8P 26-SEP 20.1 13.3 1022 65 35 0.00 587 568 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Sharp cutoff of heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 a shift 30 miles either way mean the difference b/w nothing and an inch verbatim. Anyone think PA gets 7 inches...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 LGA SREF PLUME mean 1.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 . ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 ?? Snows never made it much above that line.radar shot looks eerily similar but it will fill up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Snows never made it much above that line.radar shot looks eerily similar but it will fill up north No it doesn't. The rain is moving north and expanding. Whomever said this was a quick mover is wrong. This will likely rain out the Yankee game tomorrow night or cause a major delay. The HRRR and radar are the best tools now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 No it doesn't. The rain is moving north and expanding. Whomever said this was a quick mover is wrong. This will likely rain out the Yankee game tomorrow night or cause a major delay. The HRRR and radar are the best tools now.March 4 2014 - and didn't I say "looks similar but will fill in up north"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 No it doesn't. The rain is moving north and expanding. Whomever said this was a quick mover is wrong. This will likely rain out the Yankee game tomorrow night or cause a major delay. The HRRR and radar are the best tools now. I think the heaviest will be done by late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 March 4 2014 - and didn't I say "looks similar but will fill in up north"?I still don't think it looks similar. This brings back the horrors of a February 2010 storm I'd prefer to forget though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 I think the heaviest will be done by late afternoonIt will have poured all day with drizzle and light rain persisting most of the night. I highly doubt they play the game. It means nothing to Baltimore who would rather forfeit than risk injury on a wet field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I still don't think it looks similar. This brings back the horrors of a February 2010 storm I'd prefer to forget though. True, that was traumatic for most on this forum didn't mean to wake those bad days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 True, that was traumatic for most on this forum didn't mean to wake those bad days. Someone always losses out, that is just the nature of the beast. Depends on how high your standards are. I would not be upset about missing this storm, but the recent dry period does add pressure. I watched a coastal miss my backyard by 50 miles 2 weeks ago. NAM and GFS were printing out 5" of rain 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Someone always losses out, that is just the nature of the beast. Depends on how high your standards are. I would not be upset about missing this storm, but the recent dry period does add pressure. I watched a coastal miss my backyard by 50 miles 2 weeks ago. NAM and GFS were printing out 5" of rain 48 hours out. Meh, its a rainstorm; fun to track and watch unfold but if it busted, wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Feb 5-6 2010 and last March, those truly were painful for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Rains have started here at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It appears that the 9/25 0z ECMWF will have a tremendous bust on today's storm. Select storm total qpf figures on that run: Atlantic City: 0.85" Baltimore: 0.21" Bridgeport: 0.05" Islip: 0.38" Morristown: 0.09" New York City: 0.09" Newark: 0.12" Philadelphia: 0.15" White Plains: 0.03" Wilmington, DE: 0.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Steady rains moving in now. The latest HRRR keeps things wet right through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It appears that the 9/25 0z ECMWF will have a tremendous bust on today's storm. Select storm total qpf figures on that run: Atlantic City: 0.85" Baltimore: 0.21" Bridgeport: 0.05" Islip: 0.38" Morristown: 0.09" New York City: 0.09" Newark: 0.12" Philadelphia: 0.15" White Plains: 0.03" Wilmington, DE: 0.14" Yeah I couldn't believe those #'s..something is very wrong there. Heavier band moving through now with occasional gusts but a break coming from the south as the next batch slowly advances northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The Euro is too low but I'm starting to think the other models are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Did anyone see the 6z NAM? I urge everyone to resist this garbage model come winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 That band lifiting northward through Plainfield and the city is like a demormation band with some subsidence forming on each side. That should continue to lift north and give a good dumping. The HRRR has steady moderate rain over the area right through 02z. I see now way that they will get the game in tonight unless they want to play in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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