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Coastal Storm September 25-26th.


IsentropicLift

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Big blow convection off Carolina coast. Models may struggle with this.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, depending on how robust this convection is, couldn't this drag the center of the low to the east?  As well as the subsequent precip?  May be something to consider depending on how well the models do with it.

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Barometer still at 30.55" after mine peaked an hour ago at 30.56".    Normal diurnal change bet. 10am-4pm  is about -.08" in NYC.  I think with a low approaching it would be collapsing during current time frame by much more than that.   Will wait and see.  ....54" as I write.

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Is it just me, or are the models been regressing the past couple of years as far as forecasting precipitation amounts with these events. You would think with model upgrades, we wouldn't have so much mayhem. Does not bode well with winter approaching. I foresee lots of weenie suicides and last minute celebrations in the coming months. :stun:

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Personally, I remain skeptical about the NAM's return to a qpf bullseye in south central PA. The intense convection off the North Carolina coast is being understated on the NAM's simulated radar. Perhaps that's part of the reason the NAM seems to be developing what I suspect will prove to be a spurious qpf bullseye. More importantly, the ECMWF, GFS, and RGEM all lacked such a pronounced feature.

 

To illustrate my thinking, my guesses concerning storm total precipitation would be along the lines of:

 

0.25"-0.50" (local amounts to 0.75"):

Harrisburg, Morristown, Poughkeepsie, Providence

 

0.50"-1.00" (local amounts to 1.25"):

Bridgeport, New York City, Newark, White Plains

 

1.00"-2.00" (local amounts to 2.50"):

Atlantic City, Islip, Philadelphia

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