IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 SREF's 1 - 2" area wideMuch wetter than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 00z NAM is back on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Admiring all those H's on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 RGEM soaks the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Yes RGEM looks 2"+ area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro generally holds from 12z, some tapering of the QPF on the north-side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro 0z run vs. earlier 12z run... 9/23 12z figures: ACY: 1.65" BOS: 0.99" DOV: 1.57" ISP: 2.56" NYC: 2.32" PHL: 1.58" 9/24 0z figures: ACY: 0.88" BOS: 0.09" DOV: 2.05" ISP: 0.60" NYC: 0.50" PHL: 0.97" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 6z GFS is very wet for much of the area (most of NJ, southeastern NY into southern New England). Yesterday's 6z was also very wet before the subsequent runs backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The amount of theta-e advection and frontogeneic forcing with pwats nearing 2.00", supports bands of heavy rain lifting northward through NYC metro area late tonight or tomorrow morning. This might be too slow on the NAM. The 6z GFS is picking up on it and is faster. We'll see if the 12z guidance holds. I suspect it will. Btw, heaviest rains likely be north of the area by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Well-defined ULL over the Carolinas with moisture starting to surge northward this morning. The fast flow over SE Canada indicates very little blocking to prevent this storm from coming north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Pretty good model war on the overnight runs with the RGEM and Euro east and GFS/NAM west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Pretty good model war on the overnight runs with the RGEM and Euro east and GFS/NAM west. The 00z RGEM was not east. The 00z ECMWF wasn't east either, it was just weaker with everything The 06z RGEM may have been a tick east but it was still a good soaking for most areas The 06z 4k NAM was still a clobbering hit with an obviously overdone but still noteworthy max of 11.5" in Dutchess County NY and 5"+ in NE NJ. The 06z GFS was a big blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 It's pretty impressive that even with how dry conditions have been, WPC has the area in a day 2 slight risk for excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 00z RGEM was not east. The 00z ECMWF wasn't east either, it was just weaker with everything The 06z RGEM may have been a tick east but it was still a good soaking for most areas The 0z Euro shifted east from 12z with the heaviest rain to just SE of Long Island along with the 6z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 0z Euro shifted east from 12z with the heaviest rain to just SE of Long Island along with the RGEM. That's because as the rain shield moves north the Euro splits sending a slug east and a weaker slug west into PA. It's a product of the low being sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 the euro ens mean is wetter than the op. the op shows a blob of convection offshore that robs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 That's because as the rain shield moves north the Euro splits sending a slug east and a weaker slug west into PA. It's a product of the low being sheared apart. Watch the 12z runs of the GFS-RGEM-EURO. We'll see if the GFS moves east with the heaviest rain and or the Euro and RGEM hole serve or swing back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 the euro ens mean is wetter than the op. the op shows a blob of convection offshore that robs us 9/23/14 18z NAM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Good model consensus of a heavy rain event for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 09z SREF mean is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Good model consensus of a heavy rain event for tomorrow. As long as you dont mind not having the euro on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 As long as you dont mind not having the euro on board. Since the ensemble mean was wetter than the op and it's the driest of all the reliable guidance, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 This reminds me some of the August setup when parts of Long Island saw incredible rain amounts while areas just to the west saw barely anything, except that everything this time is focused more towards NE NJ and the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Hope this same set-up/model 'progression' pattern keeps up Dec-Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Since the ensemble mean was wetter than the op and it's the driest of all the reliable guidance, we toss. Well I don't think its a good idea to just toss unless we think it was just flat out wrong. There is still a lot that can go wrong with this type of setup. Even looking at the gfs, it gives us 1.5" of rain in under 6 hours. Obviously that would have to be from convection to get that much rain in that short an amount of time and the models have struggled with convection all summer. This could end up a widespread 1-1.5" of rain or I could definitely see 2 areas of heavy rain and places in between getting shafted with much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Fwiw my local met Frank Lombardo on wctc is really downplaying the rain amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z NAM is going to be east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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