IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean on board, game...set...match for the rain trolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 And just when it looks like things were falling into place the NAM is all fooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 and then the 18z NAM comes in with almost nothing, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 4k Nam is nothing like the regular Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 and then the 18z NAM comes in with almost nothing, LOL Almost like a foreshadowing about how things will be in a few months. I guess I'll take a split between the Euro and Gfs right now as the Nam is highly unreliable both now and in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Well the NAM should be a fun thing to deal with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Its like the nam has to be different... wetter,dryer, whatever lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 with such a weak system convection can easily bust a forecast in either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Yeah the 4k 18z NAM is a flooding rainstorm. 6"+ in some spots. Actually showing an 8.6" max in the NW Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Yeah the 4k 18z NAM is a flooding rainstorm. 6"+ in some spots. Actually showing an 8.6" max in the NW Philly burbs. how accurate is the 4K at this range? Does it flip flop like the regular NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 how accurate is the 4K at this range? Does it flip flop like the regular NAM It's rare that you see it off by this much. It's one thing for the 4k NAM to show convective blobs with higher amounts but in this case it's just as wet or wetter than the 12z regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 how accurate is the 4K at this range? Does it flip flop like the regular NAM It's consistently way way overdone WRT QPF. Metsfan spec'd it out with some programmers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's consistently way way overdone WRT QPF. Metsfan spec'd it out with some programmers. We're not talking QPF here, we're talking rain shield covereage. Differences of over a hundred miles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 The NAM is very inconsistent with its previous 4 runs. Potential runs deep with this one. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014092318/namconus_apcpn_eus_comp60.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 We're not talking QPF here, we're talking rain shield covereage. Differences of over a hundred miles here. I'm not talking about this one instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Well the NAM should be a fun thing to deal with this winter. As it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Ahhh fall and winter model madness is finally in the air, isn't it great. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I haven't been a big fan of model rainfall forecasts over the last month or so. We saw models place the heaviest rains over interior sections for the Islip deluge up until 12z the day before. The Euro finally came on board at 0z before the event began. The Euro also had very heavy rains recently for SNJ that never came to pass. So lets hope the models can show some improvement with the forecast this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I haven't been a big fan of model rainfall forecasts over the last month or so. We saw models place the heaviest rains over interior sections for the Islip deluge up until 12z the day before. The Euro finally came on board at 0z before the event began. The Euro also had very heavy rains recently for SNJ that never came to pass. So lets hope the models can show some improvement with the forecast this time around. this event has such weak synoptic forcing and baroclinicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Gfs slashed amounts as well. Basically. 25-.5" from the city west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Thank god this isn't a snowstorm, mass weenie suicides would be occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 So its gonna be another crapshoot. The models can't get a handle of these events so we'll see what happens. It's basically a question of how far inland the rain shield will end up. Even if we were to jackpot its not a major flooding rainstorm as amounts would probably be 1-3" and we could use that actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Given the support from the Euro I'll take the over, especially because the 4k 18z NAM still looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 and im sure if this were winter, a snowfall map of that storm would have people going crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 and im sure if this were winter, a snowfall map of that storm would have people going crazy. Some people, not all. It's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 this event has such weak synoptic forcing and baroclinicity This has been my concern for days. But the models have been very consistent with a very heavy rainfall event somewhere along the MA coast and SNE. Being that we are near the climatological peak of hurricane season and this system will be sitting over water that is marginally suitable for tropical development, I have to believe this is going to have some VERY poorly defined tropical characteristics to it--it's the only real way (for me anyway)- to explain current model qpf output. If we view this more as a very WEAK tropical system, versus a Nor' Easter (mid Latitude cyclone), requiring baroclincity, things start to make quite a bit more sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 This has been my concern for days. But the models have been very consistent with a very heavy rainfall event somewhere along the MA coast and SNE. Being that we are near the climatological peak of hurricane season and this system will be sitting over water that is marginally suitable for tropical development, I have to believe this is going to have some VERY poorly defined tropical characteristics to it--it's the only real way (for me anyway)- to explain current model qpf output. If we view this more as a very WEAK tropical system, versus a Nor' Easter (mid Latitude cyclone), requiring baroclincity, things start to make quite a bit more sense...if you look at the phase diagram of the most bullish gfs run (6z) it has the closest approach to tropical characteristics. though it rides the gray area on all runs weaker 18z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 SREF's 1 - 2" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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