Stormlover74 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I thought a nor'easter simply needed to produce sustained gale force winds for at least 6 hours and have a surface low. A nor'easter is nothing more than a coastal storm with wind and rain. It really doesn't have defined criteria. Generally it would have some fairly strong winds from the northeast and at least moderate to heavy rain to qualify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Seems more tropical than anything else. ... A nor'easter is nothing more than a coastal storm with wind and rain. It really doesn't have defined criteria. Generally it would have some fairly strong winds from the northeast and at least moderate to heavy rain to qualify You know as well as I do that a true nor'easter produces wind and snow, not wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Some upper-level feature spinning in the Southeast as well, surface-enhancement TUTT? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=southeast-vis-6 That spinning down in SC is the closed 500mb feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 ... What noreaster has mid 70s and heavy rain? This is a dang fall monsoon buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 have any of you learned your lesson about wet NAM runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 A nor'easter is a coastal storm (non tropical)with predominantly NE winds often producing heavy bouts of precipitation. It doesn't mention anything about temps during, how long it lasts, or how strong the storm is. I think this would qualify if it happens as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 have any of you learned your lesson about wet NAM runs? I doubt anyone is taking the QPF literally. It's more about track and coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Looks like the qpf shield shifted east compared to 06z on the 12z gfs That's true, but I think it's important to acknowledge that the precip does make it north again, its's just the trajectory that changed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Put the 12z GGEM up with the further west solutions. The precip does hit a bit of a brick wall just north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 A nor'easter is a coastal storm (non tropical)with predominantly NE winds often producing heavy bouts of precipitation. It doesn't mention anything about temps during, how long it lasts, or how strong the storm is. I think this would qualify if it happens as depicted. I agree in hindsight, here are the 10m winds, they shift around to the southeast for NYC-south. So I guess it's more or less a inland cutter on the 4kNAM. It is still shadey tho. If this happens, please give me more +AMO/+NAO, lol. At least during the early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 The higher pressures to the north may just add to increase convergence where it does rain as well as increase frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 This is the wettest run of the Euro yet. Very heavy rain incoming at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Euro is a solid 1-2" areawide with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Euro shows rain and now every media outlet and forecaster snaps to play catchup. Pathetic. Meteorology, not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 For most of us this is much needed rain so I hope the general amounts verify. Btw there was no way the Euro wasn't going to bump wet at least a little bit after the rest of the 12z suite held serve or got even wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Euro shows rain and now every media outlet and forecaster snaps to play catchup. Pathetic. Meteorology, not modelology. +10000000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Below are QPF amounts for select cities for the last three runs of the ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Meteorology, not modelology. But if we are talking about climate models, it is the opposite, lol. Those are some big qpf jumps on the euro the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 A pretty looking map now -- and three months from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 This is the wettest run of the Euro yet. Very heavy rain incoming at hour 48. Wump wump wuuummmmmpppp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 If this was winter some would be complaining that it's not good to be in the bullseye 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 A pretty looking map now -- and three months from now Reminds me a bit of the snow bomb of February 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Meteorology, not modelology. But if we are talking about climate models, it is the opposite, lol. Those are some big qpf jumps on the euro the last three runs. That's because they work in a totally different way than day to day weather models. It's apples and oranges. Just because something has the word "model" in front of it doesn't mean they function similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Reminds me a bit of the snow bomb of February 2014. A map like that would likely be a front-end snow event that changes to sleet and rain. Maybe the speed at which it shears east would save too much of a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Euro shows rain and now every media outlet and forecaster snaps to play catchup. Pathetic. Meteorology, not modelology. NWS point and click still only has a 30% chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 **Aleert** Wxrisk QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 15z SREF's, NAM weenie alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 **Aleert** Wxrisk QPF maps ALEEET!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 NWS point and click still only has a 30% chance of rain. Upton ZPFs now have 70% chance of rain on Thursday: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=ZFP&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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