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Coastal Storm September 25-26th.


IsentropicLift

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Anyone have final totals compared to model outputs? Ideally compared to the same hour, maybe 0z the day of the storm.

 

The models nailed the theme on Wednesdays runs with the very heavy rains staying down to our south in NJ.

So getting less here was no surprise here with all the strong high pressure to our north.

 

NYC.....0.32.....monthly.... 1.21

ACY.....2.37.....monthly.... 3.44

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Final figures: 9/25 0z ECMWF vs. Total Rainfall for Select Cities:

 

ECMWF09262014_1.jpg

 

Also, the NAM's extreme qpf bullseye over south central Pennsylvania never materialized.

 

Don, do you have the comparison for the 9-24-14 12z ECMWF run which showed the very heavy rains over Southern NJ?

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Unfortunately, I didn't keep that information. I just found the 0z run so dry that I focused on that in-close run. I do believe the 9/24 12z run was more realistic than the 0z run I tracked.

 

Yeah, it was interesting how the 12z run had a big rainfall bullseye near SNJ but backed off so much on 0z.

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Hence why I never use the Euro or most globals close-in (24 hours?), it seems to lag behind with it's initialization methods over North America.

 

0z Euro showing another coastal in the short-medium range.

 

Mostly with such weak systems as the Euro almost always nails the stronger systems. 

The Euro missed the Islip deluge back in August 24 hrs out but at least had a big

bullseye near Eastern LI on the 0z run once it properly initialized the convection.

 

The NAM was its usual too wet yesterday and the HRRR had to dial back as it got

closer. The RGEM had the right idea 24 hrs out of wetter south and east along

with the globals like GFS and Euro. But the big high to the north kept the rainfall

totals in check further north.

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