Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 That's mostly feedback as the GFS and RGEM only have some light showers later on. My point was that the HRRR is now drier for NYC west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 My point was that the HRRR is now drier for NYC west too. Oh.. I was hoping the NAM upgrade would have shown some better results. It's been tough using that model for anything other than temperature forecasts. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-29namcca.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Thank goodness this wasn't a winter storm because there would have been a lot of people crying, including myself. Precipitation shield is ragged and showery at best. Maybe it will improve later today but I'm betting on less than .5 inches of rain for the tristate area stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Looking like a pretty big fail for some of the wetter models on this storm. I think most finish with 0.5" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Thank goodness this wasn't a winter storm because there would have been a lot of people crying, including myself. Precipitation shield is ragged and showery at best. Maybe it will improve later today but I'm betting on less than .5 inches of rain for the tristate area stations. We have seen this happen plenty of times during the winter with big high pressures to the north. At the least the general model theme of heaviest rains over Southern NJ worked out. It's funny how the 12z Euro nailed the heavy rains over Southern New Jersey yesterday but backed off 0z. But the Euro can stumble with these weaker mesoscale type systems. It seems like the Euro's hiccups are with weaker systems and always nails the stronger larger scale ones. The GFS can pull a coup every now and then with weaker systems like a Debby for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It was a nice rainstorm, not too heavy and definitely not a nor'easter like accuweather claimed it to be. Also they were saying that we'd have flooding they failed again. So next time don't listen to accuweather we should support each other on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Any rain will be good for dryness obviously and it also shows why top ten dry months around here are very difficult to achieve. Normally we probably wouldn't even be talking too much about this system had this not been so quiet for weeks really and they will probably be quiet for several days after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 LBI is a pond. Business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Handful of raindrops the past hour (pavement speckled with darkspots), winds close to dead calm... 64/55. Would have taken a sunny day over this, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 About 2 drops of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 0.33" here in Wood ridge, NJ as of 14:30. If you followed the radar trends last night you could see the precip getting sheared apart and much of it passing off to the east. Still its a much needed rainfall here, the most we received within a 24hr period in a quite a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Looking like a pretty big fail for some of the wetter models on this storm. I think most finish with 0.5" or less. It's the Jeter effect. #RE2PECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 About 2 drops of rain here Got you beat, had about 5 minn. of drizzle here by KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The HRRR is very insistent on the radar filling back in within the next three hours. Perhaps that's why the SREF still shows significant rains tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 .28 here in southern Brooklyn so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The HRRR is very insistent on the radar filling back in within the next three hours. Perhaps that's why the SREF still shows significant rains tonight. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 15z srefs are derived from old 12z NAM data. So of course they will be way too wet. The 18z NAM finally caught on and has almost nothing but some scattered rain showers. The 21z srefs will reflect that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 What a boring event. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 EPIC and colossal bust all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The HRRR is very insistent on the radar filling back in within the next three hours. Perhaps that's why the SREF still shows significant rains tonight. Not happening, brah. The writing has been on the wall for the majority of the day. What a sheared out POS this turned out to be for these parts. HRRR/SREF/NAM/4K NAM fail... convection to the east, deformation rains to the west, and we're stuck in the middle with relatively bright overcast and drizzle/light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Looks like Jeter will get his last NYC game in after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 If the 12zNAM/15z SREF was correct would be in heavy band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 If the 12zNAM/15zSREF was correct would be in heavy band right now. Yup...it's pretty much sprinkles or light shower from here on out for any given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Sun has been poking through here for the last hour. Maybe a total of 10 drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 A comparison of the 9/25 0z QPF forecast and total rainfall through 5 pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 . Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Since the upgrade it seems like the euro has not been what it use to be in the 72 hr range….perhaps its the pattern but several times it has been inconsistent with in that time range……OBV pattern forecasting and long range its the best…..but the so called king and its deadly range has not been remotely close to that the past year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 0.31" so far from this event, 1.05" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Two photos from this evening in the wake of the departing storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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