IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 It's not like Jeter hasn't had enough farewells already. Its the risk you run with baseball and having no days off for make ups at the end of the season. Obviously if the game was meaningful they'd have to squeeze it in before Monday I personally don't care if they play the game or not, I'm not going. It's more about the people that paid a fortune on the secondary market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro continues to suck...this happen a lot last winter with its qpf forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The most stable model since yesterday has probably been the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The most stable model since yesterday has probably been the GFS. The GFS has been the best model all along on this one. It looks like the NAM and Euro have been having feedback problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro had .09" for NYC. That's good? 00Z HAD OVER .25" TOTAL. So far, it's handled the northern edge well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 GFS gave NYC almost an inch on the 12z run yesterday and so did the euro. The GFS will be too wet on the 00z run. But overall, it probably did better than the Euro from NYC to PHL etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It appears that the 9/25 0z ECMWF will have a tremendous bust on today's storm. Select storm total qpf figures on that run: Atlantic City: 0.85" Baltimore: 0.21" Bridgeport: 0.05" Islip: 0.38" Morristown: 0.09" New York City: 0.09" Newark: 0.12" Philadelphia: 0.15" White Plains: 0.03" Wilmington, DE: 0.14" 00Z HAD OVER .25" TOTAL. So far, it's handled the northern edge well. I have NYC as .09" as does Donsutherland1 I can't see how NYC doesn't receive at least .50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I have NYC as .09" as does Donsutherland1 I can't see how NYC doesn't receive at least .50"+ I see just over .25, but it seems like .5 will be hard to do any nowhere near the 00z run amounts. Maybe they get just over half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Nice table, I hope to see you update it throughout the event. I will post another update with the noon figures and, of course, one at the end of the event. It is quite disconcerning to see the Euro do so poorly so close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 First clammy / chilly / damp day of the fall. Only 60F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 With no real, defined surface low, this was a difficult event for all modeling given the convective feedback issues. The performance probably wouldn't have been so bad if we had distinct area of forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I have NYC as .09" as does Donsutherland1 I can't see how NYC doesn't receive at least .50"+ New York City Area Forecasts: JFK: 0.22" LGA: 0.12" NYC: 0.09" I'll track all three sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 New York City Area Forecasts: JFK: 0.22" LGA: 0.12" NYC: 0.09" I'll track all three sites. Can you also please track a few sites in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 58 with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Definitely a bad bust for NJ area, esp south. Not sure why. 12z run would have been better for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I see just over .25, but it seems like .5 will be hard to do any nowhere near the 00z run amounts. Maybe they get just over half inch. I agree, I like amounts in the 0.5" range (perhaps less) for NYC. I discount the latest NAM, I don't see any real mechanism to bring that band of heavy rain that it shows. This a disorganized system at this point and the low isn't exactly coming together/strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 0.33" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 It's been a light to moderate but steady rain here since about 8:30 or so. It's the type of rain that is great for the lawn and the plants without causing major problems. We needed the rain badly here and this is just the first of many more events to come. Exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 I hate to compare this system to a winter storm because it's obviously not but a slow mover like this, with this track would have been pretty epic for a lot of locations. Shades of February 5-6 2010. Obviously that system was much more organized but then again it had nice baroclinic forcing to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Can you also please track a few sites in NJ? I'll be tracking ACY, BLM, EWR, and TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The 13z HRRR and 12z GFS place lifting farther east than the NAM this evening. It would mean more lighter periods of rain vs the steadier, heavier rain the NAM shows for tonight's Yankee game. I lean towards the HRRR and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The 13z HRRR and 12z GFS place lifting farther east than the NAM this evening. It would mean more lighter periods of rain vs the steadier, heavier rain the NAM shows for tonight's Yankee game. I lean towards the HRRR and GFS. The game will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The GFS looks on the money with only some light showers and or drizzle after 18z. Southern areas down around ACY always do better with such strong high pressure to the north. NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC COUNTY...EGG HARBOR TWP 2.31 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETATLANTIC CITY 2.22 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETESTELL MANOR 2.00 800 AM 9/25 CO-OP OBSERVERMULLICA TWP 1.83 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETHAMMONTON 1.82 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETATLANTIC CITY AIRPOR 1.74 800 AM 9/25 ASOS...CAMDEN COUNTY...LAMBS TERRACE 1.52 1008 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIA...CAPE MAY COUNTY...CAPE MAY HARBOR 2.07 950 AM 9/25 MESONETCAPE MAY COURT HOUSE 2.06 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETWOODBINE 2.01 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETWILDWOOD AIRPORT 1.88 800 AM 9/25 AWOSWEST CAPE MAY 1.61 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNET...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...VINELAND 2.00 1031 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIASEABROOK FARMS 1.92 800 AM 9/25 CO-OP OBSERVERUPPER DEERFIELD TWP 1.75 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNET...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...PINEY HOLLOW 1.65 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETCLAYTON 1.58 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNET...OCEAN COUNTY...WEST CREEK 2.05 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNETLANOKA HARBOR 1.89 1010 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIANORTH BEACH HAVEN 1.89 930 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIALACEY 1.75 1000 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIASHIP BOTTOM 1.58 951 AM 9/25 SOCIAL MEDIAHARVEY CEDARS 1.51 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNET...SALEM COUNTY...WOODSTOWN 1.59 900 AM 9/25 NJWXNET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The new HRRR has a ridiculous amount of precipitation in the area...this is almost 100% overdone. I don't see any reason why these totals would verify. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRUS_10z/pcntot.gif I do think there will be another area of steady precipitation this evening, though. Models are in good agreement that we get into some better lift as the storm organizes a bit and starts pulling northeast. Things will be showery until around 2pm I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 we'll get one more mod/heavy round as the mid level fgen rotates east from pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The new HRRR has a ridiculous amount of precipitation in the area...this is almost 100% overdone. I don't see any reason why these totals would verify. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRUS_10z/pcntot.gif I do think there will be another area of steady precipitation this evening, though. Models are in good agreement that we get into some better lift as the storm organizes a bit and starts pulling northeast. Things will be showery until around 2pm I would guess. I more concerned about rainfall rates this evening. But that qpf map is from 10z run. This is the 13z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 Actually pouring here in Ramsey now, heaviest of the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Rainfall totals vs. the 9/25 0z ECMWF Forecast (through 12 pm): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I more concerned about rainfall rates this evening. But that qpf map is from 10z run. This is the 13z run: That's mostly feedback as the GFS and RGEM only have some light showers later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Good call by Coastalwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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