IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 With the 00z ECMWF, 00z GGEM, 00z NAM, 00z GFS, 06z NAM and 06z GFS on board, we have fairly good agreement on a period of heavy rain associated with a weak surface low centered around the Thursday time frame. General impacts at this time look to be 1-2" of rain with cool temps and breezy conditions. Strong high pressure over New England will somewhat limit the northern extent of the precipitation shield but the trend has been north over the last 24 hours. The new 09z SREF has NYC in the 0.75"+ area with the 1.00"+ mark over Sandy Hook. The entire area is at least 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Technically wouldn't this be the first nor'easter of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Technically wouldn't this be the first nor'easter of the season? I thought about mentioning that but the surface low itself is weak and it's getting sheared apart as it comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 This system is of particular interest to Yankee fans and MLB because it is scheduled to be Jeter's final home game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Technically wouldn't this be the first nor'easter of the season? I thought about mentioning that but the surface low itself is weak and it's getting sheared apart as it comes north. I was thinking the same thing and was going to start checking the dates on the nor'easter thread I started but I am really not sure if this one should qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 I was thinking the same thing and was going to start checking the dates on the nor'easter thread I started but I am really not sure if this one should qualify. I picked October 1 so maybe I'll be the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 The 12z NAM is coming in very wet for the entire tristate area. A large amount of the area is over 2 inches as of 57 hours and there's still a bit more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Heavy rain on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Heavy rain on the Nam No, Really?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Heavy rain on the Nam Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 2.5 - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 No, Really?!!! Finally a rainstorm on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Finally a rainstorm on the way People take my ball breaking too serious on here Cue Weatherguy701 for a warm core prediction for this weak, but juiced up low/inverted trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's interesting to me that in this case 1020MB can be considered Low Pressure here, yet in other cases can be considered High Pressure. Someone educate me. Is it because 1020MB is the lowest pressure in the general area? BTW this somewhat reminds of last October where we had that Low that was bringing a lot of rain South of here, but it never reached here because of strong high pressure. I have a feeling there's decent bust potential here if that high proves too much. The Euro has been steady, as always, and I'd trust it first, way before anything the Nam, (my "favorite") CMC and probably even the GFS say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's interesting to me that in this case 1020MB can be considered Low Pressure here, yet in other cases can be considered High Pressure. Someone educate me. Is it because 1020MB is the lowest pressure in the general area? BTW this somewhat reminds of last October where we had that Low that was bringing a lot of rain South of here, but it never reached here because of strong high pressure. I have a feeling there's decent bust potential here if that high proves too much. The Euro has been steady, as always, and I'd trust it first, way before anything the Nam, (my "favorite") CMC and probably even the GFS say. I'd wait for the 12z Euro before saying you trust its drier forecast. If the GFS stays wet at 12z I highly doubt the Euro will stay at the same precip numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's interesting to me that in this case 1020MB can be considered Low Pressure here, yet in other cases can be considered High Pressure. Someone educate me. Is it because 1020MB is the lowest pressure in the general area? BTW this somewhat reminds of last October where we had that Low that was bringing a lot of rain South of here, but it never reached here because of strong high pressure. I have a feeling there's decent bust potential here if that high proves too much. The Euro has been steady, as always, and I'd trust it first, way before anything the Nam, (my "favorite") CMC and probably even the GFS say.I think it's relative to the surrounding pressure. High pressure has air that sinks and low pressure air that rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Northeast Wind Warnings should be hoisted ASAP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I thought about mentioning that but the surface low itself is weak and it's getting sheared apart as it comes north. I thought a nor'easter simply needed to produce sustained gale force winds for at least 6 hours and have a surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 You have an actual area of vorticy at 500mb that closes off southwest of here and spawns a surface low which is responsible for the precip. You don't have a real temperature gradient so the low isn't able to deepen much based on baroclinic instability. The strong high to the north is also helping to shear this out as it tries to come north. I wouldn't take the forecasted surface pressures too literally either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You have an actual area of vorticy at 500mb that closes off southwest of here and spawns a surface low which is responsible for the precip. You don't have a real temperature gradient so the low isn't able to deepen much based on baroclinic instability. The strong high to the north is also helping to shear this out as it tries to come north. I wouldn't take the forecasted surface pressures too literally either. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Some real soakers mixed in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Why not? Why not what? Take the forecasted pressures litteraly? Well for starters we're still 48-60 hours out and still well within the time frame of model error. Secondly, the strengh of the low itself is not the biggest factor. If the low was deeper the precip shield may have been more wrapped up and we might not even be discussing this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 GFS coming in drier than the NAM but still .75" western areas to 1.5"+ over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Looks like the qpf shield shifted east compared to 06z on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I thought a nor'easter simply needed to produce sustained gale force winds for at least 6 hours and have a surface low. I think you're confusing a nor'easter with the NHC criteria for a tropical storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Broken record, but are there any analogs for this storm? My memory is wasted, I need something to compare this to. The 4knam is on board with the westward track, makes the GFS seem suspect. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.gif A classic noreaster is always frontal, this looks more mesoscale, and tbh NAM has surface temps peaking in the upper 70s down here. Seems more tropical than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Some upper-level feature spinning in the Southeast as well, surface-enhancement TUTT? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=southeast-vis-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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