Fall thread for the mountains

[Met1985]

Looking at the new Euro I really do not see any type of torch in the coming days. Looks pretty typical early December weather actually. There may be something brewing out in the 8-10 day period but other than that it looks like nice weather for the most part temp wise. I do think we will get into a moist pattern though.

[Met1985]

Euro is trying to cook something up around the 8th through the 10th this morning. Would be very interesting and one heck of a way to run a torch pattern most are worrying about. To me still looks mostly seasonable to below average once we hit the weekend though early next week. We are seeing some wild swings from the models though.

[Met1985]

Also looking at the point and click forecast we have highs in the 50s and 40s the next 7 days. Pretty typical for this time of the year.

[DaculaWeather]

And on this day in weather history....

http://www.weather.gov/gsp/3Dec_SnowEvent

 

[Hvward]

Nice map Dacula!  Euro ensemble showing a chance at a NWF event on the 9th or 10th.  Other than that it feels like fall around here and I can't say I am hating it.  Yesterday was nice outside and today/tomorrow should be even better.  Enjoy it guys!  Also the Euro has the west based NAO going negative around the 10th or so and if that verifies things could get interesting with costal development and backside snow showers.  Should be interesting to watch unfold if the Euro is correct.

[Met1985]

Euro drops a nice trough in the East around hour 120 and even more impressive around hour 144. I would think that would be some snow to the Boarder counties. A drastic change from just a couple of days ago and right in the Euros time frame.

[Hvward]

31/50 12z euro ensemble members are showing flakes for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.  Fingers crossed for the strong west based -NAO it has been hinting at.  Hahaha one member had 10" for KAVL, but that is for sure a big time outlier.

[Met1985]

31/50 12z euro ensemble members are showing flakes for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.  Fingers crossed for the strong west based -NAO it has been hinting at.  Hahaha one member had 10" for KAVL, but that is for sure a big time outlier.

A good sign I think. Don't trust the models past 5 days man.

[franklin NCwx]

A good sign I think. Don't trust the models past 5 days man.

yeah hopefully the cutoff can produce some flakes, I don't have good luck with those. At least it will provide a cool shot! Forecast temperatures continue the trend down.

[Hvward]

A good sign I think. Don't trust the models past 5 days man.

Lol you dont have to tell me that man. Just mentioning that the ensembles might be on to something. They do support the deterministic though. Might be something to watch though. I guess everyone can look at them on weatherbell though.

[Met1985]

yeah hopefully the cutoff can produce some flakes, I don't have good luck with those. At least it will provide a cool shot! Forecast temperatures continue the trend down.

Franklin they do continue to trend down. Really in my opinion is yeah we can get snow in December but our best climo for snow is January, February, and March. I really am not worried about December besides it would be nice to have flakes around Christmas.

 

Lol you dont have to tell me that man. Just mentioning that the ensembles might be on to something. They do support the deterministic though. Might be something to watch though. I guess everyone can look at them on weatherbell though.

Lol I know man. Everything is even kill around the mountain communities. When the pattern fully evolves we are going to get hammered. Like Webber said earlier that the subtropical jet picking up steam is very good for us. Also man that guy knows his stuff. Really impressed with his knowledge.

[Met1985]

To add with the subtropical jet becoming active we really need the NAO to be negative in a big way I think to get a blockbuster storm. Hopefully this year the NAO is negative for a good part of the winter. The last several winters the NAO has not helped us at all.

[NCSNOW]

Robert just threw you guys a couple of bones. Nice write up tonight.

[WxBlue]

I'm getting tired of gloomy skies this week, lol. I don't remember the last time I've seen a magical yellow orb above these mountains

[Met1985]

The Euro is back to another deep trough in the East. Still a very volatile pattern as we keep getting significant changes from run to run from the models. One thing that is evident is we will not be torching.

[Met1985]

The chance for some upslope snow next week is becoming more and more likely as the models seem to be honing in on a certain solution with  the trough and a vort coming in the first of next week. Looks like we will be below normal for temps a good part of the week also.

[SnoJoe]

A front must have come through. Was at 45.2 at 4 pm, now down to 34.6 with a stout wind. Just had a gust to 28.

[Met1985]

A front must have come through. Was at 45.2 at 4 pm, now down to 34.6 with a stout wind. Just had a gust to 28.

Must have Joe. The wind has really picked up here also. Temp is at 41degrees here though. May take sometime to drop for us.

[franklin NCwx]

40's here with strong winds.

[Met1985]

40's here with strong winds.

Sweet! Feels like early December.

[franklin NCwx]

Sweet! Feels like early December.

yup.. down to 39 now Christmas decorations getting tore up again. Looks to be normal to below next week with a decent pattern setting up around the 20th.

[SnoJoe]

Oh, had .88 inches of rain today as well. A nice steady soaker.

[Met1985]

Lol at the Euro solution for next week. Talk about cold and some snow flying in the air for a good part of the week. We would be well below normal for a large junk of the week. The chance for snow keeps increasing.

[Met1985]

The pattern shaping up next week is very impressive for this mild period coming up. Looks like a trough will set in for a bit next week for the East. Again our chances for snow look very good next week.

[Hvward]

NWFS should be good for the higher mountains on the TN border with a few flakes even making it to the valley floors Tuesday into Wednesday.

[Met1985]

NWFS should be good for the higher mountains on the TN border with a few flakes even making it to the valley floors Tuesday into Wednesday.

Yeah one heck of a way to ruin a mild week!

[Hvward]

Yeah one heck of a way to ruin a mild week!

 

Haha yep!  I wonder how long snow showers will linger in the high mountains?  Looks like they start around noon Tuesday and continue into late Wednesday.  Gonna be a bitter few days in those spots!

[Met1985]

Haha yep!  I wonder how long snow showers will linger in the high mountains?  Looks like they start around noon Tuesday and continue into late Wednesday.  Gonna be a bitter few days in those spots!

Yeah this storm is going to be very fascinating to track along the whole East coast. The Euro is very interesting in keep the storm just spinning and spinning for days. We may have a few upslope snow surprises if things work out in our favor but one thing is for sure it is going to be cold for much of the week. Also I think the wind is going to be a pretty big deal also.

[Hvward]

Yeah this storm is going to be very fascinating to track along the whole East coast. The Euro is very interesting in keep the storm just spinning and spinning for days. We may have a few upslope snow surprises if things work out in our favor but one thing is for sure it is going to be cold for much of the week. Also I think the wind is going to be a pretty big deal also.

 

We can only hope that this same type track unfolds sometime in January with a low on the SC/NC coast.  That would be incredible to watch/see.  BTW I bet you saw but Euro ensemble really feeling at least a few flakes making it to the airport Tuesday night/Wednesday with 50/50 members showing it.  Pretty decent support lol.  Also hinting at something at day 10 on the ensemble but of course wayyy to far out in the long range to take the threat serious atm.

[SnoJoe]

GSP starting to think maybe advisory level snow it appears per their HWO and AFD. Also, they have my highs in the thirties Tues through Friday. Pretty chilly week ahead.

 

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
433 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE
MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION.
..WEDNESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED A