Fall thread for the mountains

[Met1985]

Amazingly the models have trended better for the most part with the cold and moisture. Both the GFS and the Euro are very similar and both are very steady in showing a deep trough into the SE along the East coast.

[DaculaWeather]

850's are cold all the way past Atlanta on Saturday morning.

 

[Hvward]

Euro ensemble this am accumulating snowfall:

 

KAVL: 36/50

 

Boone: 42/50

 

Franklin: 32/50

[MikeGold]

Euro ensemble this am accumulating snowfall:

 

KAVL: 36/50

 

Boone: 42/50

 

Franklin: 32/50

 

New NAM suggests it will snow for at least 24 hours in the favored areas along the TN line starting at 8 pm Friday.  Looking at moisture profiles(there is an obvious Great Lakes connection also) and huge orthographics that will be in play....this solution would generate heavy snow..I'm thinking one foot is possible from this scenario at Mt LeConte...in fact Blizzard conditions possible above 5000 feet.  Still need a few more model runs to call this a lock. Ground zero for this event will probably be Roan Mountain. Carver's Gap will be the place to go to watch the event.

[franklin NCwx]

New NAM suggests it will snow for at least 24 hours in the favored areas along the TN line starting at 8 pm Friday. Looking at moisture profiles(there is an obvious Great Lakes connection also) and huge orthographics that will be in play....this solution would generate heavy snow..I'm thinking one foot is possible from this scenario at Mt LeConte...in fact Blizzard conditions possible above 5000 feet. Still need a few more model runs to call this a lock. Ground zero for this event will probably be Roan Mountain. Carver's Gap will be the place to go to watch the event.

yeah Nam was a weenie run. GFS is a little farther north with the upper low and best forcing.

[Hvward]

Yeah nam bufkit give KAVL 1.9" starting before 06z and ending around 12z.  Has some decent RH values in the snow growth area but like most have said it was a weenie run.  By all means though would love to see it verify.

[MikeGold]

yeah Nam was a weenie run. GFS is a little farther north with the upper low and best forcing.

 

GFS looks good for the TN line as well. Hopefully, somebody on this thread drives up to Carver's Gap Saturday morning and takes some cool snow pics and shares them here!  

[WxBlue]

SREF went crazy at 9z for KAVL. Doubt it'll verifies, but it's pretty cool to see!

 

[Hvward]

12z Euro holds strong with the idea of snowfall for most of WNC.

[1234snow]

Meteograms for Boone and Asheville:

[MikeGold]

12z Euro holds strong with the idea of snowfall for most of WNC.

 

The 3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains should be started ASAP! 

[Hvward]

The 3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains should be started ASAP! 

 

Calling Met1985, calling Met1985...  Your thread starting mojo is needed in WNC!

[calculus1]

Today's 12Z Euro looks really boisterous in QPF response, at least according to the free maps on wunderground.  This is at 18Z on Saturday, and it appears like precipitation has really blossomed over the piedmont while it is still quite healthy over the mountains.

 

 

 

The 2m temps are rather warm for most piedmont locations, but the 850mb temps are cold enough to sustain snowfall.  I would think the mountains would racking up the snowfall during this time period with really cold 850s and ground temps.  I think the mountains are in for quite the nice event out of this.

 

We were planning on taking the kids to Tweetsie Railroad (between Blowing Rock and Boone), but it's going to be quite chilly.  Perhaps we'll just take them sledding instead... 

[Hvward]

Sounds fun calc! If anyone thought the previous nam rub was for weenies take a look at 18z. Drops 4-5 inches in N Buncombe Co. Ha... sorry for the blurry pic, on my cell currently.

[valkhorn]

 

From MRX.

 

I plan on making it up to Mt. Leconte or Mt. Sterling Saturday Morning with a camera. I've done this sort of hike in heavy wet snow before so I'm going to have to probably start hiking before sunrise.

[Hvward]

Book it.  This is phenomenal support.

 

12z ensemble accumulating snowfall members:

 

Asheville: 43/50 members 15 with +2 inches

 

Boone: 44/50 members 11 with +6 inches

 

Franklin: 42/50 members 17 with +2 inches

[wncsnow]

I may have to make a short trip up to mount Mitchell to see this! I remember when I was very young it snowed 12 inches on mount Mitchell in late October, it was quite a ride on the parkway seeing the differences in elevation in terms of fall color and green grass to a heavy wet snow. Btw its good to be back on American wx!

[MikeGold]

I may have to make a short trip up to mount Mitchell to see this! I remember when I was very young it snowed 12 inches on mount Mitchell in late October, it was quite a ride on the parkway seeing the differences in elevation in terms of fall color and green grass to a heavy wet snow. Btw its good to be back on American wx!

Road will be closed later Friday for sure through the weekend. Beech mtn should remain open.

[Met1985]

Calling Met1985, calling Met1985...  Your thread starting mojo is needed in WNC!

I'm officially dropping the hammer!

[strongwxnc]

Book it. This is phenomenal support.

12z ensemble accumulating snowfall members:

Asheville: 43/50 members 15 with +2 inches

Boone: 44/50 members 11 with +6 inches

Franklin: 42/50 members 17 with +2 inches

Wow! Good support!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Today's 12Z Euro looks really boisterous in QPF response, at least according to the free maps on wunderground.  This is at 18Z on Saturday, and it appears like precipitation has really blossomed over the piedmont while it is still quite healthy over the mountains.

 

 

 

The 2m temps are rather warm for most piedmont locations, but the 850mb temps are cold enough to sustain snowfall.  I would think the mountains would racking up the snowfall during this time period with really cold 850s and ground temps.  I think the mountains are in for quite the nice event out of this.

 

We were planning on taking the kids to Tweetsie Railroad (between Blowing Rock and Boone), but it's going to be quite chilly.  Perhaps we'll just take them sledding instead... 

ANNNDDD..queue the western upstate skip job. Just like clockwork.... I haven't been skipped on rain all summer, but the first chance of a flake and ...

[Met1985]

I started the snow thread in case you guys did not know. Starting things off with a bang hopefully.

[Met1985]

Might as well revise this thread and save the snow thread for later. The 12z Euro looks cold for the mountains. Looks well below normal. The cold shot coming around the 18th is impressive.

[franklin NCwx]

Might as well revise this thread and save the snow thread for later. The 12z Euro looks cold for the mountains. Looks well below normal. The cold shot coming around the 18th is impressive.

highs below freezing is possible.

[Met1985]

highs below freezing is possible.

Yeah especially Friday into next week a few days. Very impressive for November. I like the colder pattern. Might not be snowing but brings the ground temps down and helps other places up north get some snow going.

[Met1985]

Some good analysis by Robert on facebook about an hour ago about out possible snow this weekend.

Here's a quick look at snow "possiblilities" on Sunday Night and Monday, Monday Night, early Tuesday. The front will have a weak low develop in Texas and quickly run up the East Coast, and west of the mountains, the rain will change to snow but only for a couple of hours --very brief event, in Arkansas and through middle Tennessee. But in the mountains of TN, NC, VA, West VA, a much longer lasting snow even thanks to cold advection and general upslope snowfall (moisture lifting in mountains).
It's worth keeping an eye on the strength of the low further west for a quick burst of snow in northern Texas and possibly northern Mississippi early Monday morning as well, but won't last long. After this front, dry and cold for Tuesday and Wednesday.

[strongwxnc]

Hello cold front

[Met1985]

The blast of cold air is still very impressive from the Euro for tonight into tomorrow and into next week. Also just the slightest chance for a flake or two along the boarder. More towards Boone area I think.

[Met1985]

This is interesting. Some wording from GSP this morning.

TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
 

[Hvward]

This is interesting. Some wording from GSP this morning.

TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A

PASSING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO

PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY

TUESDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

Yeah GFS showing this idea some.  I don't think we see much accumulation in the valley but we could have some flakes flying.  Too bad that warm nose keeps us from getting a decent event.