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Fall thread for the mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

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A beautiful cold morning with a low of 27 degrees! Well it looks like this weekend will take the cake to say for one of the best weekends of October. Get out and enjoy it. The Euro and the GFS are way apart on anything for next weekend. The Euro has a cutoff right in the SE and that would surly bring us an early snow but I do not buy it and the GFS is a glancing blow with most of the cold staying further north. I have a feeling we maybe seeing a lot of back and forth until the middle of next week.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Wow big hop this morning in accumulating snowfall members on the Euro Ensemble for WNC:

 

KAVL: 18 members and 1 with +8" hahaha

 

KTBN: 24 members and 6 are 6"+

 

Macon: 19 members and 2 with +8"

 

 

ETA: Euro deterministic gives KAVL 14" by Tuesday.... I think it might be hung over from a night out last night.

 

These are mid winter type graphs I am looking at and it isn't even November!

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Hvward

Hvward

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A beautiful cold morning with a low of 27 degrees! Well it looks like this weekend will take the cake to say for one of the best weekends of October. Get out and enjoy it. The Euro and the GFS are way apart on anything for next weekend. The Euro has a cutoff right in the SE and that would surly bring us an early snow but I do not buy it and the GFS is a glancing blow with most of the cold staying further north. I have a feeling we maybe seeing a lot of back and forth until the middle of next week.

 

 

Yep Met lots of disparity.  You guys can probably guess that I am partial to the Euro (mainly because it has more pretty things to look at and its long range verification lol) but there is a large discrepancy between what it and the GFS currently see for next week.  I am just glad we are already model watching regardless of how next weekend pans out.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

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Wow big hop this morning in accumulating snowfall members on the Euro Ensemble for WNC:

 

KAVL: 18 members and 1 with +8" hahaha

 

KTBN: 24 members and 6 are 6"+

 

Macon: 19 members and 2 with +8"

 

 

ETA: Euro deterministic gives KAVL 14" by Tuesday.... I think it might be hung over from a night out last night.

 

These are mid winter type graphs I am looking at and it isn't even November!

 

Upslope snow is a given with this, but I really don't see the moisture that the Euro is seeing.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Ensemble Update: accumulating snowfall

 

KAVL 12/50

 

Boone 13/50

 

Franklin 14/50

 

Euro seems to be trending towards the GFS and this looks like a NWF snowfall for the high terrain of our area with a few token flakes potentially in the valley.  It should be a nice precursor for the winter to come imo.

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Hvward

Hvward

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The GFS still continues to hint at a NWFS for the higher mountains of WNC late Halloween night into Nov 1st.  It looks look there will be enough moisture to squeeze out a few flakes maybe 2-4" inches in the highest elevations.

 

700mb winds and vort look to be sufficient with 50kt winds accompanying the backside.  That will allow any remaining moisture to slam up against the mountains and condense as upsloping occurs.

 

gfs_z700_vort_eus_20.png

 

 

Precip map has the classic NWF sig already and sometimes we don't see this until a few days before the storm so imo it is a good sign to see it already.  Hopefully there is enough moisture to spill over into the valleys but I don't see enough just yet.  That could change though and the 50kt winds won't hurt its progression.  Also notice the 1033mb high pressure over Michigan.  That should really bring the cold down.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png

 

 

 

2m temps look supportive in the upper elevations also.  Should be a fun night for those above 3500'!

 

gfs_T2m_eus_20.png

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Smoked

Smoked

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Wind trajectories do seem favorable. Almost due north winds across the great lakes will surely pick up some moisture that maybe the models might have a tough time fully incorporating. 

 

I'm guessing that models will converge on a solution by sometime Wednesday as the upper level support begins to develop across Canada.

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Hvward

Hvward

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The 18z sharpens the trough as the Euro does. Changes rain to snow along the boarder counties. Still way early to really bit on anything at this time frame. But encouraging.

 

 

You think?  I mean we are only 4 days away from the event.  It is almost time for the short range models to take over.  The GFS has been showing this for the past 7-10 runs so I think flakes are in the works for someone.  It was even showing moisture over the northern mountains when the Euro was going haywire.  I think the GFS has got a decent handle on this one.

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Met1985

Met1985

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You think?  I mean we are only 4 days away from the event.  It is almost time for the short range models to take over.  The GFS has been showing this for the past 7-10 runs so I think flakes are in the works for someone.  It was even showing moisture over the northern mountains when the Euro was going haywire.  I think the GFS has got a decent handle on this one.

May just maybe. I want to see were the models are by maybe Wed morning and go from there. Just to much back and forth on the solutions.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Big changes with the overnight Euro. It phases the two pieces of energy right over us and boom sends down some major cold and would send down snow showers and squalls along the NC/TN boarders. A lot like WXJordan was talking about in his winter preview in which all should look at. We may need to fire up the snow thread for the season!

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Hvward

Hvward

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Big changes with the overnight Euro. It phases the two pieces of energy right over us and boom sends down some major cold and would send down snow showers and squalls along the NC/TN boarders. A lot like WXJordan was talking about in his winter preview in which all should look at. We may need to fire up the snow thread for the season!

 

Yeah met agreed.  A much more southerly track and then boom with the phase.  This solution has pretty decent ensemble support also with KAVL having 25/50 member with accumulating snowfall and 30/50 for Boone.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Seems like the models are all converging on this vort just diving from Canada and dropping straight south. I need one more day to really see were this is going. This is a winter time look fore sure. Very excited right know at the prospects for seeing some snow.

 

I am all in man lol.  First storm of the season ha why not?  This one has great ensemble support, better then some storms I have seen in the dead of winter that verified.  If I am wrong then I am wrong ha but I think we see some nice flakes with this one.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I am all in man lol.  First storm of the season ha why not?  This one has great ensemble support, better then some storms I have seen in the dead of winter that verified.  If I am wrong then I am wrong ha but I think we see some nice flakes with this one.

I agree. I will take a look tomorrow in the morning and the evening and then go from there. Finally something interesting to track!

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Have they decided to play the games on the mountain tops and delay them by many hours?

 

Madison and Mountain Heritage are schools located in Madison and Yancey County, significantly above 3000 ft elevation. GSP projects changeover to occur around 3z Saturday morning (which is 11 pm Friday) History usually favors an on-time or faster changeover compared to the models...so that's why I think a couple game sites could possibly see snow flakes at some point...and very windy and cold conditions at the least.

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