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Fall thread for the mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Overnight Euro pretty much holds serve with the cold blast coming through and also throws us in another shot of chilly air behind that. Reading the board things are shaping up very nicely for what we want to see in October across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Yeah just got a chance to check out the Euro and it brings back down that 558Pa air.  If any moisture can get behind the front, it should fall as flakes in the very highest elevation.  I think this will be our first winter taste.  The CFS has us going very cold in the long range and it's monthly snowfall maps show accumulation in the Apps for the second half of the month.  If I had to guess, we could get a nice NWF Event before the end of October, but that really is only based off the CFS snowfall map and the amount of activity currently in the Pacific.  

 

Climate Prediction Center also buying the cool down in the long range.

 

Bysc0xfCIAALJ-g.png

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Hvward

Hvward

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Euro holding strong on the am run with a nice front moving through sometime Sat night/Sun morning.  In fact both Euro & GFS bring the first freeze to the higher elevations during that time period.  It looks like this has a pretty good chance of verification, but could be overblown atm.  Below are 2m above ground temps.

 

00z Euro:

 

2jg5nwj.jpg

 

 

06z GFS:

 

w2caiw.jpg

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Little disappointed it's going to rain Friday since I want to hike, but Saturday and Sunday will be very good with skies being mostly clear I think. I'm planning on taking my parents to Mt. Mitchell/Craggy Gardens Sunday. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold because my parents aren't good with the cold :\

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Hvward

Hvward

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Little disappointed it's going to rain Friday since I want to hike, but Saturday and Sunday will be very good with skies being mostly clear I think. I'm planning on taking my parents to Mt. Mitchell/Craggy Gardens Sunday. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold because my parents aren't good with the cold :\

 

 

Yeah man, it through a wrench in my plans too.  Now I have to figure out how to take half-days this week lol.  I checked out our spot last night and it was beautiful!

 

10406354_1477185382552030_91612545361903

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Yeah man, it through a wrench in my plans too.  Now I have to figure out how to take half-days this week lol.  I checked out our spot last night and it was beautiful!

 

10406354_1477185382552030_91612545361903

 

Beautiful shot!

 

I decided to test my camera around campus in preparation of this weekend and ended up going above that new observatory at UNCA on a trail to get this shot of downtown Asheville. Was going out again for sunset, but I mistimed it so it was already too late when I got out.

 

efHeoIi.jpg

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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I still see no changes to what is coming up for this weekend. Just a very impressive trough in the East for this time of the year. GFS looks like it has trended a bit colder even. This weekend is really going to feel like November out there.

should see our first frost and possibly a freeze in the higher elevations
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MikeGold

MikeGold

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should see our first frost and possibly a freeze in the higher elevations

 

The GFS suggests a hard freeze for highest elevations for temps in the mid 20's with some rime ice on the trees on Clingman's Dome Saturday morning with a decent moist WNW wind. It will be interesting to watch if the pocket of cold air swings this far South or cuts more through the Northern Ohio Valley.   Almost for sure parts of the higher elevations of Upper Michigan will receive a nice round of lake effect snow Friday night/Saturday that might sneak as far South as Snowshoe WV.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Yeah it looks like it is going to be a crisp morning on Sunday.  I am looking forward to it!  The Euro has showed this off and on for the past 5 days.  I think it lost it for 3 runs over the last few days but it now seems certain of the cool down.  It will be interesting to see if we can get some flurries above 5000', and how beautiful the fall leaves will be with frost on them.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Just looked at the models and some maps and this is a very impressive trough for anytime of the year let alone for the first of October. I would think this is a bit early for a frost or freeze for the mountains but the cold looks very impressive on both the Euro and the GFS.

Yeah met weatherbell showing some 20's in the upper mountains. Brrr for this time of the year.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Met might be time to que up the winter thread.  GFS & Euro both put moisture very close to northern WNC, I have a good feeling a couple locations up that way will see some flakes Saturday morning.  None for the valleys but I will be at Beacon Heights for the sunrise Saturday morning and around that area all day so things could be interesting.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Met might be time to que up the winter thread.  GFS & Euro both put moisture very close to northern WNC, I have a good feeling a couple locations up that way will see some flakes Saturday morning.  None for the valleys but I will be at Beacon Heights for the sunrise Saturday morning and around that area all day so things could be interesting.

 

Looking at model soundings of temperature/moisture-it suggests to me that actual snowflakes will likely not fall any closer than the highest elevations of WV.  The thick cold air doesn't really get any closer than that. Moisture is modeled to be less than impressive. As we saw last year-moisture is often underestimated when strong orographics are present but winds will be more in the 25 knot range which is really just the threshold to get things interesting.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Looking at model soundings of temperature/moisture-it suggests to me that actual snowflakes will likely not fall any closer than the highest elevations of WV.  The thick cold air doesn't really get any closer than that. Moisture is modeled to be less than impressive. As we saw last year-moisture is often underestimated when strong orographics are present but winds will be more in the 25 knot range which is really just the threshold to get things interesting.

 

 

That was mainly what I was keying on.  I do remember now the slide from the NWS that said a NW wind must be 25 knots or higher ideally for NWFS.  As far as thickness, I also remember the poster from Tennessee named Jeff who is a met saying he looked for thickness at or below 558Pa when forecasting for the high peaks.  Agreed now that I have the time to look at a few soundings that it seems a far shot this far south, but stranger things have happened.  Nonetheless thanks for all your input all the time, still a learning experience for me!

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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That was mainly what I was keying on.  I do remember now the slide from the NWS that said a NW wind must be 25 knots or higher ideally for NWFS.  As far as thickness, I also remember the poster from Tennessee named Jeff who is a met saying he looked for thickness at or below 558Pa when forecasting for the high peaks.  Agreed now that I have the time to look at a few soundings that it seems a far shot this far south, but stranger things have happened.  Nonetheless thanks for all your input all the time, still a learning experience for me!

 

The 12Z NAM shows the time period of interest to be 12 to 18 Z on Saturday.  It generates just some some scattered trace amounts of reflectivity from very shallow convection along the TN line that doesn't even reach 800 mb...extremely dry above that due to a temperature inversion. (850 temps are the cold spot in the column.) The column doesn't really get fully below freezing till almost 600 mb.  If it ends up being a little colder/moister-then perhaps Beech might get some snow grains instead of a light mist since there appears to about 50 mb worth of moisture. (You generally need about 60 mb of moist air thickness for drizzle to form..twice that for real rain/snow  precip to form.) Of course the coarse models this far out don't completely resolve the exact conditions that occur right on the ridge line.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Wow this weekend is going to be a shock to the system come Saturday morning. I would bet that a lot of the higher mountains will not get out of the 40s for highs Saturday and Sunday morning will see widespread frost and freezing temps. Not yet time for the snow thread. Maybe towards the end of the month or I could make it and we could talk about our winter possibilities in the thread. What do yall think?

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Hvward

Hvward

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Posted

Wow this weekend is going to be a shock to the system come Saturday morning. I would bet that a lot of the higher mountains will not get out of the 40s for highs Saturday and Sunday morning will see widespread frost and freezing temps. Not yet time for the snow thread. Maybe towards the end of the month or I could make it and we could talk about our winter possibilities in the thread. What do yall think?

 

 

Well we started it in the last week of September last year so it wouldn't be too early.  Lol but mby won't see flakes until November.

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jburns

jburns

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Wow this weekend is going to be a shock to the system come Saturday morning. I would bet that a lot of the higher mountains will not get out of the 40s for highs Saturday and Sunday morning will see widespread frost and freezing temps. Not yet time for the snow thread. Maybe towards the end of the month or I could make it and we could talk about our winter possibilities in the thread. What do yall think?

 Wait a while.  We shouldn't be ahead of Maine.

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Met1985

Met1985

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 Wait a while.  We shouldn't be ahead of Maine.

Lol that's what I was thinking. This is the first year we have had an individual Mountain Fell thread so ya no big deal. We are going to see some warm ups anyway and I would like to get the thread started off with a bang for the mountains like our first real snow threat.

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Met1985

Met1985

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MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
359 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
  CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST WILL KILL OR
  DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS.

 

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Met1985

Met1985

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AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
359 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST WILL KILL OR
  DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

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Met1985

Met1985

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Ya I think the higher elevations are going to see a bunch of mid 20s tomorrow morning. Temps have dropped off here this morning. Down to 42 degrees already with a stiff NW wind.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Phew glad I decided to finish my calculus homework this am and not try to get the sunrise. I was worried about cloud cover. I am headed up tonight for the sunset at Blue Ridge Pinnacle and then tomorrow morning I hope to catch a frost covered sunrise sunday morning on Beacon Heights. It will be brutal and I am going to wear full on winter gear to get the shot, but I think it will be worth it if we can get some clearing to the southeast overnight. I will have my windmate with me tonight and tomorrow so I should be able to provide a few obs while my camera is firing.

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Smoked

Smoked

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Minimum of 20.7 degrees F at Mount Mitchell and appears they saw a few hours of flurries/snow showers with accumulated precipitation near 0.1 inch with temps below 30 F. Still 28.8 F as of 2:45 PM.

 

Btw how do you paste in a screenshot? I tried the paste and paste from word buttons.

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