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Fall thread for the mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Met1985

Met1985

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We can only hope that this same type track unfolds sometime in January with a low on the SC/NC coast.  That would be incredible to watch/see.  BTW I bet you saw but Euro ensemble really feeling at least a few flakes making it to the airport Tuesday night/Wednesday with 50/50 members showing it.  Pretty decent support lol.  Also hinting at something at day 10 on the ensemble but of course wayyy to far out in the long range to take the threat serious atm.

Yeah that is good support! Lol. This whole system is going to be fun to watch. Really going to be a very chilly week. The big pattern change coming looks good from around the 20th on. A nice step down pattern would be nice around Christmas.

GSP starting to think maybe advisory level snow it appears per their HWO and AFD. Also, they have my highs in the thirties Tues through Friday. Pretty chilly week ahead.

 

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

433 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN

NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE

MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION.

..WEDNESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED A

Great find Joe! Yep I would not rule out something like 2-4 inched to 3-6 in the higher elevations. This week is really shaping up to be a cold one.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

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Nice. I am heading to Burnsville Wedensday Morning for a meeting.

 

 

The models still look very good for some upslope fun starting in about 36 hours. Both the NAM and GFS look decent. The Euro keeps us cold for most of this coming week. I would think the NWS would issue advisories for us today sometime this afternoon is the models keep trending the way they do.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Light sleet here. Temps holding steady around 31. 

 

Kinda surprised that GSP hasn't issued at least a WWA or SWS for this event. Our schools are letting out early and all ballgames are canceled. Maybe it won't be that bad. Who knows.

Yeah I am surprised also. Not sure what they are not seeing or want to see out of the models. Oh well no matter it is going to snow. We have been getting some sleet showers also down here Joe. It is interesting it looks like the flow is going to be NNW instead of just NW. We tend not to do well with this type flow coming in . We will see but hope everyone enjoys.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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I know you guys in the higher elevations are focused on today and tonight's northwest flow event but I saw something really interesting on the Euro that I think the mountains may want to keep an eye on as we go into next week...

 

The European model has been very adamant is bringing a closed upper low across the Southeast in about a week...which I feel confident will happen. Its way too early to know exactly what will come out of this but I noticed a big change from yesterday's 12z Euro and this morning's run that could have significant implications for those above 3000 ft....

 

 

First off, with yesterday's 12z run you had the storm remaining steady with its track but there was also an upper low embedded in the northern stream that totally disrupted any intrusion of cold air into the US...the result would be a storm too warm for anyone in the SoApps region to get excited about...

 

post-1418-0-24334800-1418143748_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

Now...look at the significant change that came in this morning's 0z run...the upper low that was sitting on the Canadian border is pretty much gone, a ridge axis is running from the Central Plains to the west shore of Hudson Bay...now isn't that interesting?
 

 

post-1418-0-87042200-1418143934_thumb.pn

 

 

 

The result as of this change is another surface high (approx 1037 mb) coming out of Canada drawing in much colder air at 850mb...

 

post-1418-0-00958400-1418144044_thumb.pn

 

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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Thanks a lot for the analysis Marion and yes we should keep a close eye on this developing cutoff for next week. Thanks for putting that together.

 

 

Wish I was posting in the other thread tonight but......

 

Just wanted to acknowledge Marion's post above. Of course, I didn't understand much of it but it sounded positive.  I appreciate all you guy's analysis. I know it takes a lot time and effort.

 

 

Get out of my head Met.  :santa:

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Wish I was posting in the other thread tonight but......

 

Just wanted to acknowledge Marion's post above. Of course, I didn't understand much of it but it sounded positive.  I appreciate all you guy's analysis. I know it takes a lot time and effort.

 

 

Thanks for the kind words...that's why I'm here, to spread some insight.

 

I've been gone all evening so I'm just now looking at the afternoon Euro run but I see that the northern stream flow remained the same as it was on the 0z run...it's not a bad look at all around 192 hours...I don't think anyone away from the mountains will have to worry about it but it may be just cold enough for fun and games in the mountains.

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Met1985

Met1985

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What a gorgeous day today. Clear blue sky and highs in the low 40s. This evening has really seen the temps just plummet with a stiff breeze. Down to 27 degrees already. All this talk about above normal temps is out the freaking window. This is our 9 day in a row we have seen below normal temps with snow on Tuesday and on Wednesday. I know we live in another climate all together but this has been an impressive week plus for cold weather. 

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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What a gorgeous day today. Clear blue sky and highs in the low 40s. This evening has really seen the temps just plummet with a stiff breeze. Down to 27 degrees already. All this talk about above normal temps is out the freaking window. This is our 9 day in a row we have seen below normal temps with snow on Tuesday and on Wednesday. I know we live in another climate all together but this has been an impressive week plus for cold weather. 

 

 

Wow. Some crazy temp differences tonight. I'm at 47.4 with a high today of 48.6 just set a couple of hours ago. I noticed the top of Sugar and Beech Mtn. are in the upper 40's while Banner Elk and Weaverville are in the upper 20's. Even AVL is below freezing at 31.2.

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