WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Dulles may test latest freeze on record? Epic winter coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Epic winter coming? 2005 is latest ... good Feb storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Snowfan hit RIC dead on. Lots of other people with single-digit departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 What are the latest first freeze dates ever recorded for DCA, IAD and BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 What are the latest first freeze dates ever recorded for DCA, IAD and BWI? I think we're getting closer for IAD...Ian has that info. DCA is not for awhile and BWI probably the same. BWI's climo is right around Halloween, so we'll probably only be about a week late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Dulles is Nov 11. So we are at 2nd latest there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 If the cold look of the globals verifies for next week, DCA might have an earlier-than-normal first freeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Dulles records are fun when there's nothing else to talk about but I'd imagine they've had later. Plus they've missed by a degree like 3 times. Still notable for 50+yrs of record tho. Interesting their latest is earlier than DCA avg first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z GFS saying a freeze on Saturday the 8th and Monday the 10th (maybe even DCA on this day). Then more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been down this path before, but GFS MOS says BWI and IAD get it this Saturday the 8th. NAM MOS just misses for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Euro keeps most spots a hair above freezing in the immediate area but it's colder than last cold shot. IAD is bound to snag a 32 at least. Though since it's so close to the record kinda hope it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Euro keeps most spots a hair above freezing in the immediate area but it's colder than last cold shot. IAD is bound to snag a 32 at least. Though since it's so close to the record kinda hope it doesn't. What's the record? With the airmass that's progged to come in next week, I think DCA will probably even hit (assuming it's as cold as advertised). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 What's the record? With the airmass that's progged to come in next week, I think DCA will probably even hit (assuming it's as cold as advertised). The 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 11th. Hmmm...well, if IAD misses on Saturday, it will probably set the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Let's see if LWX calls it right for tonight. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC346 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014(snip)..NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MD THROUGH DAYBREAK. AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH TODAY...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD MIXING DAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MS VALLEY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE ABLE TO HANG ON...THICKEST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOW A DECREASING TREND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES. GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MANY LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO FALL BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR THE BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Same as yesterday...GFS MOS gets BWI and IAD both below freezing and NAM MOS keeps both just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Same as yesterday...GFS MOS gets BWI and IAD both below freezing and NAM MOS keeps both just above. NAM wants to keep the DPs up, which I have a hard time believing. As a point of reference, the HRRR puts the DPs in the 20s by mid-afternoon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 RAP looks decent for tonight. 32-34 in the Metro areas by 2:00am, Dews 24-26. Of course I have seen that RAP might have a cool bias in the cold season and a warm bias in the warm season. So you can't be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 32 degrees here. Mission accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 28 at IAD. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 BWI makes it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 H2O wins for IAD with a forecast of 11/10. I tie with mattie g for BWI with a forecast of 11/6 for both of us. Thus far, Bob Chill, mattie g and wrb129 are winning with a total departure of 15 days for the first 3 stations. Wxwatcher007 and I are a day back with 16 to round out the top 5. Given the forecast, I think Bob has the inside track to victory with his forecast of 11/15 for DCA. Mattie g's forecast of 11/18 has a chance if DCA somehow doesn't get it later this week after the arctic fropa of doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS MOS gives DCA a freeze Saturday morning and gets close even tomorrow. Then again next Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 38/15 at DCA at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 38/15 at DCA at 8pm. I think they will hit 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 34 last hour at DCA with a dp of 16. If the winds die down this hour or next, they might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 33/16 at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 good ole dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 good ole dca Interesting temp distribution this morning. Some teens from Fredericksburg to Richmond, but mostly upper 20s in the DC/Balt areas. Wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Interesting temp distribution this morning. Some teens from Fredericksburg to Richmond, but mostly upper 20s in the DC/Balt areas. Wind? Haven't really looked but makes sense. Dews are sufficiently low so must be wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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