MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Big difference in magnitude and timing between the GFS and Euro on the Nov. 1-2 cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Go with whatever is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 lol... My original prediction for IAD and BWI was 11/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 12z GFS back to cold after Halloween, maybe even cold enough to get DCA close to 32F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 12z GFS back to cold after Halloween, maybe even cold enough to get DCA close to 32F? Verbatim it brings -10 850s just overhead so yea but still being after the resolution loss takes away some of the fun. If the ridge axis out west moves one state further west we could start discussing flurries too...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Verbatim it brings -10 850s just overhead so yea but still being after the resolution loss takes away some of the fun. If the ridge axis out west moves one state further west we could start discussing flurries too...lol The GFS does bring flurries to northern DE and extreme NE MD, and obviously the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Pretty good agreement for the range. CMC is a snapshot not lows in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I think it's safe to say 11/2 will be the best fall day yet (if you like cold). GFS shows highs in the mid to low 40s on the 2nd, with lows in the 20s. Also, it gives me .2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Good visual, Ian. Unusual agreement for ops so far out and ensemble support to boot. If we fail then we should start a poll whether we get the freeze in Nov or not. Looks like shorts season continues down the line. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Euro not as impressive temp wise with the 12z run. Sat and Sun mornings in the low 30's. Looks pretty good at h5 and the surface though. Ridge/trough placement looks plenty good to get some subfreezing in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looks like IAD missed again... 34 was the low, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looks like IAD missed again... 34 was the low, correct? That's what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If something like the 12gfs happens, I could see DCA getting down to 32 because it would be a strong CAA setup. Would still be tough but a lot better than relying on radiational cooling. GFS has been getting kinda gung ho digging and closing a strong vort max and rapid deepening of a surface low. I'm thinking we might see a wind adv/warning event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GFS has been getting kinda gung ho digging and closing a strong vort max and rapid deepening of a surface low. I'm thinking we might see a wind adv/warning event this weekend. I'm praying the GFS is right, lol...would love a cold blast and bendy trees. Euro and GGEM a look a bit slower with the process & deepen it too late. Though they've trended a bit better with the stacking process itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anyone have a glimpse in between hrs 114 and 120 on the 12z GFS? Or is it too early for this sort of thing (run-watching!) to begin??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anyone have a glimpse in between hrs 114 and 120 on the 12z GFS? Or is it too early for this sort of thing (run-watching!) to begin??? Of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Would make it easy if they all hit 32 on the same day. Would be some nice, close guesses in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 12z GFS MOS gets a freeze for IAD and BWI on Monday the 3rd. Pretty close on the 2nd as well. RIC and DCA are in the mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 12z GFS MOS gets a freeze for IAD and BWI on Monday the 3rd. Pretty close on the 2nd as well. RIC and DCA are in the mid-upper 30s. RIC could do it. It's a good spot east of the City where it could radiate well. DCA...notsomuch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 update- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014..NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST. PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO THE 40S. STILL NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- BIGGEST CHG COMES SAT NGT...AS THE STRONG GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY TEMP LOSS WL PRIMARILY BE ADVECTIVE. THAT MEANS MIN-T IN THE 30S AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F SUN AFTN. RDGG BLDS OVER AREA SUN NGT...W/ ALL THE ASSOCD FEATURES-- CLR SKIES/DCPLG WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES NEAR THE BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 So from what I'm seeing on NWS forecasts, IAD and RIC have a freeze chance Sunday night into Monday morning, and thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 So from what I'm seeing on NWS forecasts, IAD and RIC have a freeze chance Sunday night into Monday morning, and thats about it. BWI will get it. GFS MOS gets BWI down to 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Dca looks to get another shot next weekend. Setup keeps trending colder. My guess would be dca 34 and iad 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 BWI will get it. GFS MOS gets BWI down to 30F. Yeah they have every airport but DCA listed as below freezing now in the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 6z GFS MOS min temps for tonight: DCA: 36 IAD: 28 BWI: 31 RIC: 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Looks like only KRIC managed to check this box off last night. Hit 32° at 2:54 observation. I hit 30° around 2:00 just west of town then held steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Dulles may test latest freeze on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Wow. Pretty big fail locally. Temps barely dropped after about 9pm last night. Winds combined with WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Ric wins lol ric hit 30 i hit 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The places that will freeze before IAD, especially, is kind of amazing. KRIC, KCLT, KBHM, KMEM, KBNA, and, the one I find most remarkable, KTLH. Tallahassee was one off a record low last night at 30°... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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