PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I think my late October freeze call for BWI and IAD is in serious trouble now. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Question is if I will get a freeze before heading up to Fairbanks, AK for Thanksgiving. If you don't before you leave, I'd at least give it a 50/50 chance you'll see one in Fairbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I knew I should have gone with my original guess for a January first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 If you don't before you leave, I'd at least give it a 50/50 chance you'll see one in Fairbanks. LOL...knowing my luck, it will be 50/34 on Thanksgiving up there. I'm hoping for a balmy -20 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 LOL...knowing my luck, it will be 50/34 on Thanksgiving up there. I'm hoping for a balmy -20 though. Too bad you'll be up in AK and miss the White T-day here. 45 day Accuwx forecasts are always money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Too bad you'll be up in AK and miss the White T-day here. 45 day Accuwx forecasts are always money. Apparently it snowed last year in Fairbanks for Thanksgiving, but if it somehow snows here instead of Fairbanks this year, I'll be flabbergasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Dulles may not get one in Oct.. start threatening "latest" ever (Nov 10) pretty quick there if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Congrats Russia. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/International/big-chill-on-the-way-for-moscow/36095075 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I didn't enter this contest because I believe none of these airports will record a freeze this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 Dulles may not get one in Oct.. start threatening "latest" ever (Nov 10) pretty quick there if so. Yeah, have to see if the mid-late next week cold front improves at all. 12z GFS seemed to back off of it a bit today. But 384hr GFS gets us all below freezing (except probably DCA)! Which would nicely verify my BWI and RIC prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Congrats Russia. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/International/big-chill-on-the-way-for-moscow/36095075 39N vs 55N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 39N vs 55N Point being? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yeah, have to see if the mid-late next week cold front improves at all. 12z GFS seemed to back off of it a bit today. But 384hr GFS gets us all below freezing (except probably DCA)! Which would nicely verify my BWI and RIC prediction.Next week could do it. This last shot 'colded up' as we got closer. It's a lot easier to sneak one in as we go. Not to mention both 2010 and 2009 held off till Nov there so not terribly uncommon lately but still only 5 that late since 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Point being? The cold would still be hard-pressed to reach us if it was on the Canadian side. At best, causing near-average freeze dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Next week could do it. This last shot 'colded up' as we got closer. It's a lot easier to sneak one in as we go. Not to mention both 2010 and 2009 held off till Nov there so not terribly uncommon lately but still only 5 that late since 63. Yea, IAD will have chances behind any decent front with good radiational conditions overnight. Doesn't have to be some high latitude sourced airmass west of the cities in late Oct. Not seeing much hope for BWI or DCA anywhere on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 All I know is that the GFS is the best with 2m temps. I don't even look at the EURO for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 All I know is that the GFS is the best with 2m temps. I don't even look at the EURO for that. Though I question the 70 degree high next Tuesday with no precip, 15C 850s, and a SSW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yea, IAD will have chances behind any decent front with good radiational conditions overnight. Doesn't have to be some high latitude sourced airmass west of the cities in late Oct. Not seeing much hope for BWI or DCA anywhere on the horizon. Yeah, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 GEFS is trending quicker with widespread BN temps in the central and eastern US during the first week of Nov. Same look as the euro ens d10+ with goa ridging / +pna and troughing downstream in the eastern half of the conus. That type of lw pattern could probably take care of bwi/ric if it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Though I question the 70 degree high next Tuesday with no precip, 15C 850s, and a SSW wind. Problem with the GFS is it's usually wrong with everything else so hard to trust the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The cold would still be hard-pressed to reach us if it was on the Canadian side. At best, causing near-average freeze dates. I think the point was temps are running 15-25F below normal in that region, while we're not..hence "congrats Russia". I'm uber-jelly, at least for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Though I question the 70 degree high next Tuesday with no precip, 15C 850s, and a SSW wind. Obviously it's bad in the "long range", but within a few days, it's pretty good. I can only speak for surface temps, as I don't regularly check other parameters. For example, it handled the cold yesterday morning pretty well. 4km NAM had it cold too, but was showing mid-upper 30s in the coldest spots, while the GFS was correct in showing widespread frost. The EURO is completely horrible at temps. Below were the forecast temps from the 00z run on Monday. The first number is the EURO's temps, and in parentheses are the observed low temps. BWI: 41F (35F) IAD: 39F (35F) DCA: 41F (46F?) IMBY: 48F (33.5F) Then the 00z GFS from Monday: BWI: 37F IAD 35F DCA: 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Really long leads, but the GFS has been pretty consistent with a Colorado/Panhandle-type low around Halloween that initiates a pattern change and sweeps some cold air in behind it for the first few days of November. If that happens similar to the progs, that should easily get IAD, BWI and probably RIC a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Really long leads, but the GFS has been pretty consistent with a Colorado/Panhandle-type low around Halloween that initiates a pattern change and sweeps some cold air in behind it for the first few days of November. If that happens similar to the progs, that should easily get IAD, BWI and probably RIC a freeze. GEFS and Euro ens have a shot of bn temps during the 2-5th. Before that is warmy warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 GEFS and Euro ens have a shot of bn temps during the 2-5th. Before that is warmy warm. Yup, that's the one. Next week's cold front (mid-week) is trending weaker, but this Sunday morning is looking a little colder of late. Probably another mid-upper 30s type deal, but has a chance for IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 12z GFS has 11/2-11/7 as a pretty cold period. It has 20s all the way to the Bay on the mornings of 11/2 and 11/3. Oh, and it has mid-40s for highs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Could be a blip but the 12z GEFS run pretty much ditched to cool shot idea during the first week of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 GFS didn't ingest new satellite data today because of the outage, so I wouldn't give today's runs much credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 GFS didn't ingest new satellite data today because of the outage, so I wouldn't give today's runs much credence. lol- as if we need an additional reason to be wary of the GFS in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 lol- as if we need an additional reason to be wary of the GFS in the long range. LOL, it ain't the Euro is a crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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