WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The fall equinox is upon us and tonight's lows will probably reach the 30s in our region's colder spots. So, it's time for the first freeze contest! Copying and pasting last year's contest: Rules are the same as before...minimum cumulative departure wins. So, a forecast of November 5th for DCA's first freeze would have a departure of 5 if the first freeze is actually on November 10th. This departure is added to that for RIC, IAD and BWI for a contestant's total departure. You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F or lower at the following 4 stations: RIC: DCA: IAD: BWI: Tiebreaker: Cumulative rainfall for November 1-14 at BWI Contest closes at the end of the month (11:59pm September 30th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 RIC: 12/3 DCA: 12/11 IAD: 11/15 BWI: 11/23 Tiebreaker: 1.68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 RIC: 12/3 DCA: 12/11 IAD: 11/15 BWI: 11/23 Tiebreaker: 1.68" Trolling or legit? Latest freeze ever ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Trolling or legit? Latest freeze ever ftl. Legit, but I should spread them out more for the sake of climo even if it does not make sense in reality. Will look better in statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Thinking a +PNA regime will set in for November. RIC: 11/17 DCA: 11/17 IAD: 11/14 BWI 11/14 Tiebreaker: 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Is Weatherguy a warmnista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Legit, but I should spread them out more for the sake of climo even if it does not make sense in reality. Will look better in statistics. trollolololol. No chance DCA doesn't freeze til two weeks before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 RIC: 11/14 DCA: 11/14 IAD: 11/2 BWI: 11/2 Tiebreaker: 0.9" When RIC and DCA get their first freeze, BWI and IAD will be getting a hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Initial entry. I reserve the right to edit right up to the 30 Sept deadline! RIC: 11/13 DCA: 11/10 IAD: 10/30 BWI: 11/1 Tiebreaker: 1.95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 RIC 11/2 DCA 11/13 IAD 10/22 BWI 11/2 0.87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC: 11/14 DCA: 11/14 IAD: 11/2 BWI: 11/2 Tiebreaker: 0.9" When RIC and DCA get their first freeze, BWI and IAD will be getting a hard freeze. I would like to add that I think IAD and BWI will get a frost in late October. Not sure of the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC 11/20 DCA 11/25 IAD 11/10 BWI 11/12 TB: 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC: 11/6DCA: 11/10IAD: 10/28BWI 11/2Tiebreaker: 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC 11/20 DCA 11/25 IAD 11/10 BWI 11/12 TB: 1.2" Something like this is what I'm leaning towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 why is everyone so pessimistic about Oct. this year? Last year I recall quite a few entries for Oct especially for BWI and IAD. It panned out too around 10/25-10/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 why is everyone so pessimistic about Oct. this year? Last year I recall quite a few entries for Oct especially for BWI and IAD. It panned out too around 10/25-10/26. I think it'll frost in October, just not a freeze. All you need is -6/-7 departure and it's frosty. Freeze will be tougher, but now that I think about it, it may be possible as well. Considering we just had a -10 night, and we aren't even in a pattern too favorable for cold, I may have to adjust my outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 why is everyone so pessimistic about Oct. this year? Last year I recall quite a few entries for Oct especially for BWI and IAD. It panned out too around 10/25-10/26. Climo for IAD and BWI both have late October dates, if memory serves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC 11/3 DCA 11/3 IAD 10/30 BWI 10/30 Tiebreaker: .88" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC: 11/12 DCA: 11/4 IAD: 10/25 BWI: 10/25 TB 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC: 11/23 DCA: 11/21 IAD: 11/5 BWI: 11/5 Tiebreaker: 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 RIC: 11/14 DCA: 11/14 IAD: 10/29 BWI: 10/29 Tiebreaker: 1" I'm all in for a late October arctic outbreak. We need to break more Oct. 29 records anyway. DCA will screw it up though and record a low of 33 while BWI/IAD are in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 06z GFS hr 38,782,000 says our predictions are in jeopardy. Frost/freeze all the way to the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Where's Ian with the first freeze map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 RIC: Nov 26 DCA: Nov 27 IAD: Oct 27 BWI: Oct 27 tie: 0.76" Feeling very pessimistic this morning, so i'm tempted to pick all January dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 RIC: 11/23 DCA: 11/4 IAD: 10/30 BWI: 10/30 Tiebreaker: 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Where's Ian with the first freeze map? BOOM (most recent, with links to earlier) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/22/coming-cold-blast-first-freeze-on-the-way-for-many-in-mid-atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 RIC: 11/5 DCA: 11/18 IAD: 10/29 BWI: 10/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 RIC ... Nov 1 BWI ... Oct 20 DCA ... Oct 20 IAD ... Oct 9 Tie-breaker 0.72" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 DCA:11/10 RIC:11/14 IAD:10/28 BWI:11/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 Entries must be in by midnight tomorrow! Also, lots of people are forgetting the tiebreaker, so go back and add it before the contest closes. BWI: 11/6 IAD: 10/28 RIC: 11/6 DCA: 11/24 Tiebreak: 1.63" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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