Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Average December call, excellent January call, horrible February call, failed overall seasonal temp , snowfall undetermined but looking good. So a C, A, F, F, B so far.interesting but I think you are not giving him enough credit for Dec and too much for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So I'm going to pose the question now: KA predicted a +4 FEB. With the sheer magnitude of that bust, can we hosestly say this type of winter forecast is any better, or worse, than a coin flip? Are we going to once again debate the merit of his winter outlooks next year? I view this as entertainment only, and fodder for getting weenies either excited or depressed about winter in the months leading up to it. Now, back to discussing our upcoming March snow/ice blitz! Temperatures:Above Average Snowfall:Average Rainfall:Above Average Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7 Monthly: Dec:0 to +1 Jan:0 Feb:+4 Snowfall DCA:15" Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2) Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So I'm going to pose the question now: KA predicted a +4 FEB. With the sheer magnitude of that bust, can we hosestly say this type of winter forecast is any better, or worse, than a coin flip? Are we going to once again debate the merit of his winter outlooks next year? I view this as entertainment only, and fodder for getting weenies either excited or depressed about winter in the months leading up to it. Now, back to discussing our upcoming March snow/ice blitz! I dont think KA has a clue on how to forecast winter long range. Whatever his methodologies are...they dont work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Agree- he had several very good (lucky) winter calls where he went against the consensus .. And turned out correct. 2010 was one, and an earlier winter where everyone went cold snowy and him warm snowless. Those 2 calls helped him achieve some type of mythical status on weather boards ... But I now firmly believe those were no better than chance... Ie he got lucky and the others were unlucky. Hell, Judah Cohen nailed jan feb this year for the northeast.. But busted horribly in his NAO call, so was right for the wrong reason! I'm with you.. KAs method whatever that is is no better than chance.. This FEB 14 degree bust give or take completely invalidates his "method" for all future winters I dont think KA has a clue on how to forecast winter long range. Whatever his methodologies are...they dont work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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