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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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32F at the picnic tables and it's started as snow…

 

Excellent, the graphical point forecast for Mansfield shows a lot of flakes – I don't think any accumulations will have much trouble hanging around for a while with those temperatures:

 

06NOV14C.jpg

 

The point forecast sums to similar values suggested elsewhere for the higher elevations, so that seems in line with other products:

  • Late Afternoon Rain and snow. High near 36. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
  • Tonight Snow before 7pm, then rain and snow between 7pm and 10pm, then snow after 10pm. Low around 28. Blustery, with an east wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • Friday Snow. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow likely before 11pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

     

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MWN auto road temps...

 

6288ft 24.3F

5300ft 27.1F

4300ft 30.0F

4000ft 30.1F

3300ft 32.5F

2300ft 36.0F

1600ft 40.2F

 

Looks like the RA/SN line is around 3k.

 

Yeah that sounds about right.

Personally I don't think we have any shot at all of accumulating snow down here at 750ft...or really anywhere below 1,000ft or 1,200ft.  The CAA isn't that strong while the precipitation is occurring, and the best shot would come if there's any upslope response that has enough organization to give a more steady precip rather than just passing snow showers. 

 

I think there could be a couple inches at 1,500ft and then really not much below that...maybe a coating down to 1,000ft on the west slopes where cold air has an easier time invading down the Champlain Valley.  Here on the east side its not going to come in so quick.  Bulk of this event should be above 2,000ft with up to a half a foot above 3,000ft.

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Picked up 0.18" of liquid so far this evening, not much, but the picnic tables at 4,000ft probably have a few inches on them at 30-32F.

 

MPV with 0.17" but for whatever reason the MVL gauge must be clogged as they've only recorded a Trace of precip.

 

Yeah, a similar 0.21" here – point forecast indicates ¼" to ½" of liquid expected.

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Apparently there's a HADS site on 2nd CT Lake now.

 

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=SECN3&time=GMT

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/station_total.cgi?stn=SECN3&unit=0

 

We're slowly working our way up to the border crossing.

omg

 

wonder if it's solar powered since it's about 10 miles north of the nearest power line.

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The cloud ceiling was too low to really get an estimate of the snow line along the Winooski Valley this morning, but there's certainly snow on the ground at 2,100' at Bolton Valley, with a good amount of snow in the air.  I'd guess we're looking at something in the 1,500' – 2,000' range:

 

 07NOV14A.jpg


 

There's certainly been some snow up at the Octagon at 3,600' at Stowe as well, and from the camera down near the Spruce Peak Base, it looks like notable accumulations of natural snow start up around the 2,000' mark:

 

07NOV14B.jpg

 

07NOV14C.jpg

 

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I just got back from Bolton and I would say it changes over just below 1000ft (Maybe around 800ft or so), and then accumulations begin closer to the 1500 level. At the parking lot at 2000-2100 there was about an inch or so depending on which surface you looked at, and it was reasonably photogenic as it was sticking to the trees nicely. It was coming down reasonably well and unlike my first trip in October it wasn't needles, and there was decent snow growth.

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It sounds like 3-4" up above 3,000ft...I'll hike up later and find out for sure but that sounds reasonable given all the CoCoRAHS stations around the mountain picked up 0.3-0.4" of QPF. Just wasn't able to realize some of those slightly larger 0.5-0.8" liquid amounts the models were spitting out in previous days. Euro model sort of nailed it as the American models were far too wet leading up to this.

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Awesome photos! What did you take them with?

 

Nikon D300 and full disclosure there was some post processing in lightroom but I didn't try to go over the top (not debating that one again). The main factor is a really good lens I am borrowing.

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A camera................ :lol:

You don't say?

 

Nikon D300 and full disclosure there was some post processing in lightroom but I didn't try to go over the top (not debating that one again). The main factor is a really good lens I am borrowing.

Sweet, a good lens will do that. Whatever edits you did do, you did a really good job at editing it without going over the top and making it look fake, wouldn't have known it was edited if you didn't point it out. 

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