powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 BTV's AFD... SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY, THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 AT TIMES. IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS THE SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT TO WARM TO DEVELOP ANY SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL AND WILL LIKELY JUST END UP AS COLD RAIN WITH A MIX OF SNOWFALL BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 3-5 INCHES IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT ELEVATION BAND WITH 6-10 POSSIBLE ON THE SUMMITS OF MT MARCY, WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, MT MANSFIELD, AND JAY PEAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Excited to go skiing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The forecasts suggest that the local mountains are on track for some snow as we head into tomorrow, with accumulations even getting down to the mountain valleys overnight. The general numbers I'm hearing are up to a half foot in the mountains in general, with the possibility of 6-10" for the peaks in the Adirondacks and Greens, with amounts tapering to just a dusting down low depending on valley location/elevation. Our point forecast in the Winooski Valley calls for an inch or two, and we're under a Winter Weather Advisory for the first time this season. I've added some of the recent forecast discussion text, as well as the advisory and larger projected accumulations maps below. It looks like the BTV NWS may have increased the number of snowfall range categories in their projected accumulations maps, so that should be useful: .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 421 AM EST THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS BEGINNING AT 7PM FOR THE DACKS AND 2AM FOR THE GREENS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS OVER THE CAPE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOOKING AT THE 850 TEMPS THE ZERO TEMP LINE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AND THE 925 ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE DACKS BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE WINDS WILL DEVELOP A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP, THE GREENS WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY, THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 AT TIMES. IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS THE SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT TO WARM TO DEVELOP ANY SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL AND WILL LIKELY JUST END UP AS COLD RAIN WITH A MIX OF SNOWFALL BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 3-5 INCHES IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT ELEVATION BAND WITH 6-10 POSSIBLE ON THE SUMMITS OF MT MARCY, WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, MT MANSFIELD, AND JAY PEAK. I see that PF highlighted the same section of text in the forecast discussion that I did – I wonder why we found that part so interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Here's the Eye on the Sky forecast map for VPR...I think they did a real good job with this, minus the color scheme. But aside from NWS, hard to find a more detailed local map that hits all the elevation nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That is pretty good. Looks like I will head up around daybreak to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yup, There will be snow in those higher terrain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yup, There will be snow in those higher terrain areas And wind. Lots of wind at 4k+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Here's the Eye on the Sky forecast map for VPR...I think they did a real good job with this, minus the color scheme. But aside from NWS, hard to find a more detailed local map that hits all the elevation nuances. That's cool, I didn't know that the Eye on the Sky guys made those – it's great to see all the topographic nuances in there. They've got our area of the Winooski Valley near the spine in their 2-4" range, the BTV NWS map has us in their 2-3" range, and our point forecast suggest the 1-2" range. We're at the bottom of the valley, so getting some snow will just depend on how low the snow line goes, but it certainly looks to get cold enough at all elevations by later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 And wind. Lots of wind at 4k+ Always wind above 2,000 most of the time.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Always wind above 2,000 most of the time.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 lol, Just a hair misleading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 OT, but how wrong would you say this is? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Estimating_the_Water_Equivalent_of_Snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 GYX has removed any mention of snow from the Bartlett P&C... 1-3 for Bretton Woods. Does that seem accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yup, There will be snow in those higher terrain areas No love for raymond. I'd really like to get the ground frozen a bit before snow sets in, but feel a bit left out of the party now that two fairly large storms havewill have effected others, but not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 No love for raymond. I'd really like to get the ground frozen a bit before snow sets in, but feel a bit left out of the party now that two fairly large storms havewill have effected others, but not us. Would rather not have it now anyways, It won't last down this way, And yes, Lets get the ground frozen, Looks like we start that process late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 OT, but how wrong would you say this is? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/Estimating_the_Water_Equivalent_of_Snow.pdf Well, this was given in class....and it is absolutely terrible. How was I given this in class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 WWUS41 KGYX 062001 WSWGYX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 301 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE... .RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEZ007>009-NHZ001-070415- /O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0011.141107T0500Z-141107T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.W.0012.141107T0500Z-141107T2100Z/ NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON... WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM... JACKMAN...COLEBROOK 301 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL. HEAVY WET SNOW COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Crushed on the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Crushed on the border StormTotalSnowFcst-1.png more power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Crushed on the southern Presidentials as well - I plan on hiking Mt Pierce and Eisenhower tomorrow with 6-10" new overnight and a couple more during the day. Winds ripping to 40 might be problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 32F at the picnic tables and it's started as snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 more power outages Hvy hvy ... send us your trucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 32F at the picnic tables and it's started as snow... image.jpg Nice enjoy your 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 CAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The international border from Jay Peak to Pittsburg to Jackman should get hit hard in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Snowing at 4000 foot Wildcat. Coles Pond VT is down to 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 SLK reporting UP, but that may be drizzle or something else the ASOS can't figure out at 37F. In Stowe we have: 4000ft...31F -SN 1,500ft...39F -RN 750ft....43F -RN Hard to tell on the webcam if that line is a cloud or the snow line up high where vis becomes murky. That's around 3000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 SLK reporting UP, but that may be drizzle or something else the ASOS can't figure out at 37F. In Stowe we have: 4000ft...31F -SN 1,500ft...39F -RN 750ft....43F -RN Hard to tell on the webcam if that line is a cloud or the snow line up high where vis becomes murky. That's around 3000ft. image.jpg MWN auto road temps... 6288ft 24.3F 5300ft 27.1F 4300ft 30.0F 4000ft 30.1F 3300ft 32.5F 2300ft 36.0F 1600ft 40.2F Looks like the RA/SN line is around 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Tropical Storm Conditions possible on Mount Washington: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.2702759660005&lon=-71.30332832999966&site=all&smap=1#.VFv4I8lW59g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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