eyewall Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 That one was always going to be a rainer. Only chance for snow has been upslope after the fact. The follow up system in Sun/Mon/Tues timeframe has potential. Yes it does. The Euro has a lakes low transferring its energy to a coastal which takes over in the GOM Monday morning. The GFS isn't agreeing very well at all with a weaker system coming through on Sunday but it could still produce some accums. I am hoping for the upslope potential so I can make a run up to Bolton. I always enjoy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yes it does. The Euro has a lakes low transferring its energy to a coastal which takes over in the GOM Monday morning. The GFS isn't agreeing very well at all with a weaker system coming through on Sunday but it could still produce some accums. I am hoping for the upslope potential so I can make a run up to Bolton. I always enjoy that. The Sunday system is weak on the GFS, but still produces a nice shot of liquid equiv into a borderline cold column (0.5-0.7" on the 18z GFS). Would be a nice advisory snow for the northern Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah couldn't even get below 34F here lol. MAV for SLK had 9F a couple of days ago and 11F when I was doing the package Sunday afternoon. What a FAIL, low was 24F. Still waiting on PWM to hit 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Still waiting on PWM to hit 32.Crazy. Finally got there this morning on the hill. 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Can we lock in the GFS for the end of the week system? Mountains probably advisory to low end warning snow with good upslope as it pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Can we lock in the GFS for the end of the week system? Mountains probably advisory to low end warning snow with good upslope as it pulls away. image.jpg image.jpg Yeah, I saw that on the WunderMap®. I haven't looked at every run in the past few days, but that's one of the first I've seen to have such a large portion of the liquid on that colder side. It certainly does target the NVT area: The latest ECMWF run was more typical of the recent guidance over the past few days, with more rain and less snow, but in any event the models are suggesting the potential for at least something on the back side of that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Can we lock in the GFS for the end of the week system? Mountains probably advisory to low end warning snow with good upslope as it pulls away. image.jpg image.jpg That would be nice. The Euro is still west but yeah the upslope potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That would be nice. The Euro is still west but yeah the upslope potential is there. NAM is between the two so a compromise is likely a good bet which ends as maybe 1-3" at the peaks and snow showers in the valley. Anyway, still 3 days out so may move around a bit still. I do think here's a limit to how far SE and cold it can get. Wouldn't surprise me to go with a St Lawrence track or at least NY state to Montreal or something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 NAM is between the two so a compromise is likely a good bet which ends as maybe 1-3" at the peaks and snow showers in the valley. Anyway, still 3 days out so may move around a bit still. I do think here's a limit to how far SE and cold it can get. Wouldn't surprise me to go with a St Lawrence track or at least NY state to Montreal or something too. I agree and I don't think that is very unreasonable at all as anxious as we are to get started . The NWS in their discussion did not seem to be confident in a specific track as of yet. Obviously I would prefer the GFS to be right, but wishcasting won't get the job done. This is from the 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z GFS is huge for the northern Greens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z GFS is huge for the northern Greens lol. Yes it is. Here is the model sounding for my neck of the woods at 72 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 You guys in VT and Logan11 will be rejoicing on the next two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 You guys in VT and Logan11 will be rejoicing on the next two I'm far from sold on anything more than a couple inches at the picnic tables, but the potential is there. But anyway, the models are showing a very active pattern continues in the long range, so I have no doubt we'll all have our chances this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 I'm far from sold on anything more than a couple inches at the picnic tables, but the potential is there. But anyway, the models are showing a very active pattern continues in the long range, so I have no doubt we'll all have our chances this month. I like the 15th on for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z EURO has a similar track to GFS...but doesn't agree on precip, not even close haha. It would still give the potential for 1-4" in the Greens and west slopes. The big change in the past day is the track across SNE as opposed to through VT/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z EURO has a similar track to GFS...but doesn't agree on precip, not even close haha. It would still give the potential for 1-4" in the Greens and west slopes. The big change in the past day is the track across SNE as opposed to through VT/NY. #2 is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12z EURO has a similar track to GFS...but doesn't agree on precip, not even close haha. It would still give the potential for 1-4" in the Greens and west slopes. The big change in the past day is the track across SNE as opposed to through VT/NY. A definite shift there but yeah not as much of a leaf on the backside. It will be interesting to see if the GFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 A definite shift there but yeah not as much of a leaf on the backside. It will be interesting to see if the GFS holds serve. 12z GGEM is close for the mountain elevations, and ends as some upslope in the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Love me a 61 degree evening in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 It never got that warm in NNE today. My high was only 52F, but I see most of SNE was in the 60s. Down to 46F now with a thin overcast (corona around the moon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 46.9°F was today's high here, Down to 41.9°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 What (or whom) do I have to sacrifice for the latest NAM to verify. Verbatim that is a foot plus for the northern greens, just in time for my annual early season day trip to Killington (from NYC) Disclaimer; I'm fully aware of what the NAM does and what it's verification record is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 So anything going on tomorrow night? Crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 BTV's AFD... I'm planning on skiing Friday on Mansfield so should be fun to get some snow. & Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 252 PM EST Wednesday...active weather is expected through the period with widespread precipitation expected Thursday night through Friday night. Snow is expected over the higher terrain with rain changing to snow in the lower elevations later on Friday. Accumulations are expected...especially in the mountains. Here are the details...low pressure over the middle-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon intensifies and moves northeast into the Gulf of Maine by Friday morning and eventually into New Brunswick by Friday night. Upper level trough associated with this feature will move right over our area during this period...thus sufficient forcing will exist for widespread precipitation Thursday night through Friday morning. Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday. The lower elevations will essentially have a cold rain Thursday night then mix with and change over to snow during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation will be moving out of the area so precipitation amounts will be light when its cold enough everywhere for snow. The ground and roads are still relatively warm...so melting in the larger valleys will likely limit amounts as well. At this time...looking at a dusting to an inch at the lowest elevations Friday afternoon and night while the highest elevations for the whole event should see something in the 2 to 6 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 BTV's AFD... I'm planning on skiing Friday on Mansfield so should be fun to get some snow. & Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 252 PM EST Wednesday...active weather is expected through the period with widespread precipitation expected Thursday night through Friday night. Snow is expected over the higher terrain with rain changing to snow in the lower elevations later on Friday. Accumulations are expected...especially in the mountains. Here are the details...low pressure over the middle-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon intensifies and moves northeast into the Gulf of Maine by Friday morning and eventually into New Brunswick by Friday night. Upper level trough associated with this feature will move right over our area during this period...thus sufficient forcing will exist for widespread precipitation Thursday night through Friday morning. Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday. The lower elevations will essentially have a cold rain Thursday night then mix with and change over to snow during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation will be moving out of the area so precipitation amounts will be light when its cold enough everywhere for snow. The ground and roads are still relatively warm...so melting in the larger valleys will likely limit amounts as well. At this time...looking at a dusting to an inch at the lowest elevations Friday afternoon and night while the highest elevations for the whole event should see something in the 2 to 6 inch range. First Bolton Road trip coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday. That's nice to hear that the high elevations will make the most of the event – that's certainly colder than it looked a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Well, in line with above, I just checked my BTV NWS point forecast, and starting tomorrow night, every period with precipitation mentions at least some snow. If that's happening down here on the valley bottom, the mountains should be able to rack it up with sufficient moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Northern Aroostook progged for 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory issued: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014 VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-062100- /O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0015.141107T0600Z-141108T0000Z/ ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON... STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD... UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 359 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 1500 FEET. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 4 AM AND BE HEAVIEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAY BECOME SLUSHY ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION STILL ON THE GROUND TO FREEZE RESULTING IN ICY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH THE STRONG ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF THIS STORM...WATCH FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && $$ DEAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Northern Aroostook progged for 6-10". I have the day off from work and plan on hiking somewhere in the Whites tomorrow ... should def have some snow falling on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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