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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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That one was always going to be a rainer. Only chance for snow has been upslope after the fact.

The follow up system in Sun/Mon/Tues timeframe has potential.

 

Yes it does. The Euro has a lakes low transferring its energy to a coastal which takes over in the GOM Monday morning. The GFS isn't agreeing very well at all with a weaker system coming through on Sunday but it could still produce some accums. I am hoping for the upslope potential so I can make a run up to Bolton. I always enjoy that.

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Yes it does. The Euro has a lakes low transferring its energy to a coastal which takes over in the GOM Monday morning. The GFS isn't agreeing very well at all with a weaker system coming through on Sunday but it could still produce some accums. I am hoping for the upslope potential so I can make a run up to Bolton. I always enjoy that.

The Sunday system is weak on the GFS, but still produces a nice shot of liquid equiv into a borderline cold column (0.5-0.7" on the 18z GFS). Would be a nice advisory snow for the northern Greens.

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Can we lock in the GFS for the end of the week system?

 

Mountains probably advisory to low end warning snow with good upslope as it pulls away.

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Yeah, I saw that on the WunderMap®.  I haven't looked at every run in the past few days, but that's one of the first I've seen to have such a large portion of the liquid on that colder side.  It certainly does target the NVT area:

 

04NOV14A.jpg

 

The latest ECMWF run was more typical of the recent guidance over the past few days, with more rain and less snow, but in any event the models are suggesting the potential for at least something on the back side of that system.

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That would be nice. The Euro is still west but yeah the upslope potential is there.

NAM is between the two so a compromise is likely a good bet which ends as maybe 1-3" at the peaks and snow showers in the valley. Anyway, still 3 days out so may move around a bit still. I do think here's a limit to how far SE and cold it can get. Wouldn't surprise me to go with a St Lawrence track or at least NY state to Montreal or something too.

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NAM is between the two so a compromise is likely a good bet which ends as maybe 1-3" at the peaks and snow showers in the valley. Anyway, still 3 days out so may move around a bit still. I do think here's a limit to how far SE and cold it can get. Wouldn't surprise me to go with a St Lawrence track or at least NY state to Montreal or something too.

 

I agree and I don't think that is very unreasonable at all as anxious as we are to get started :). The NWS in their discussion did not seem to be confident in a specific track as of yet. Obviously I would prefer the GFS to be right, but wishcasting won't get the job done. This is from the 12z run:

gfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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You guys in VT and Logan11 will be rejoicing on the next two

I'm far from sold on anything more than a couple inches at the picnic tables, but the potential is there. But anyway, the models are showing a very active pattern continues in the long range, so I have no doubt we'll all have our chances this month.

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I'm far from sold on anything more than a couple inches at the picnic tables, but the potential is there. But anyway, the models are showing a very active pattern continues in the long range, so I have no doubt we'll all have our chances this month.

 

I like the 15th on for here

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12z EURO has a similar track to GFS...but doesn't agree on precip, not even close haha. It would still give the potential for 1-4" in the Greens and west slopes.

The big change in the past day is the track across SNE as opposed to through VT/NY.

 

A definite shift there but yeah not as much of a leaf on the backside. It will be interesting to see if the GFS holds serve.

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What (or whom) do I have to sacrifice for the latest NAM to verify. Verbatim that is a foot plus for the northern greens, just in time for my annual early season day trip to Killington (from NYC)

Disclaimer; I'm fully aware of what the NAM does and what it's verification record is.

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BTV's AFD... I'm planning on skiing Friday on Mansfield so should be fun to get some snow.

& Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 252 PM EST Wednesday...active weather is expected through the period with widespread precipitation expected Thursday night through Friday night. Snow is expected over the higher terrain with rain changing to snow in the lower elevations later on Friday. Accumulations are expected...especially in the mountains. Here are the details...low pressure over the middle-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon intensifies and moves northeast into the Gulf of Maine by Friday morning and eventually into New Brunswick by Friday night. Upper level trough associated with this feature will move right over our area during this period...thus sufficient forcing will exist for widespread precipitation Thursday night through Friday morning. Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday. The lower elevations will essentially have a cold rain Thursday night then mix with and change over to snow during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation will be moving out of the area so precipitation amounts will be light when its cold enough everywhere for snow. The ground and roads are still relatively warm...so melting in the larger valleys will likely limit amounts as well. At this time...looking at a dusting to an inch at the lowest elevations Friday afternoon and night while the highest elevations for the whole event should see something in the 2 to 6 inch range.

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BTV's AFD... I'm planning on skiing Friday on Mansfield so should be fun to get some snow.

& Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 252 PM EST Wednesday...active weather is expected through the period with widespread precipitation expected Thursday night through Friday night. Snow is expected over the higher terrain with rain changing to snow in the lower elevations later on Friday. Accumulations are expected...especially in the mountains. Here are the details...low pressure over the middle-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon intensifies and moves northeast into the Gulf of Maine by Friday morning and eventually into New Brunswick by Friday night. Upper level trough associated with this feature will move right over our area during this period...thus sufficient forcing will exist for widespread precipitation Thursday night through Friday morning. Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday. The lower elevations will essentially have a cold rain Thursday night then mix with and change over to snow during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation will be moving out of the area so precipitation amounts will be light when its cold enough everywhere for snow. The ground and roads are still relatively warm...so melting in the larger valleys will likely limit amounts as well. At this time...looking at a dusting to an inch at the lowest elevations Friday afternoon and night while the highest elevations for the whole event should see something in the 2 to 6 inch range.

 

First Bolton Road trip coming up :)

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Thermal profile suggests highest elevations will be cold enough for snow during the entire event with snow levels lowering during the day on Friday.

 

That's nice to hear that the high elevations will make the most of the event – that's certainly colder than it looked a few days ago.

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Winter Weather Advisory issued:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

359 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014

VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-062100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0015.141107T0600Z-141108T0000Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...

UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

359 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM

EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST

VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST

SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY EARLY

FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 4

AM AND BE HEAVIEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL

CONTINUE TOMORROW TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAY BECOME SLUSHY ESPECIALLY

AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN

THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION STILL ON

THE GROUND TO FREEZE RESULTING IN ICY ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH THE STRONG ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE OF THIS STORM...WATCH FOR

RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING IN MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

$$

DEAL

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