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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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Last night's snow at 3300ft...co-worker sent this photo...with summit temps of 32-33F he said the snow didn't make it under 3000ft.

 

But the picnic table coatings are getting more frequent. The sign of seasons changing.

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

That's the fifth round of snow/frozen precipitation this month for Mansfield, with occurrences on the 5th, 10th, 19th, 26th, and now the 30th.  That seems pretty good for a month that's likely coming in above average for temperature.

 

That's probably it for October this year, since it looks like the next chance for snow would be this weekend, which is November.

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Just looking at the obs from MPV, temp dropped from 38° at 4:51 am to 30° at 7:51. That's seem like a pretty big drop in a relatively short time.

You'd be surprised. That's not really much when going from ovc to clr. CON does that in 1 hr probably a few times per month.
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That's the fifth round of snow/frozen precipitation this month for Mansfield, with occurrences on the 5th, 10th, 19th, 26th, and now the 30th. That seems pretty good for a month that's likely coming in above average for temperature.

That's probably it for October this year, since it looks like the next chance for snow would be this weekend, which is November.

It's coming in waaaay above normal, so not bad to get some tastes of winter in the mountains.

BTV +5.5

MVL +4.8

MPV +3.3

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MOS has 18F at CON for Mon AM...10F at BML and HIE.

Posted this in the other storm thread but prob will get buried...

Some ridiculous cold in the mountain valley radiators Monday morning.

12Z NAM MOS has the following:

15F Whitefield HIE

14F Berlin BML

14F Morrisville-Stowe MVL

11F Saranac Lake SLK

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I know, I know, I'm not a hunter.  Hate to see such a massive beautiful animal taken down.  Nature takes the weak and sick, hunting seems to do the opposite.

 

But only the most skilled and dedicated hunters.  Mediocre-to-average hunters like me usually take from the dumb end of the gene pool.  And I'd estimate that bull to have dressed out at 1,000-1,100 lb, with antler spread 60" or so.  (Arrows are about 30")

 

Thru 10/29:

 

CAR +4.1

BGR +4.6

PWM +6.0

CON +4.1

 

Haven't had too many nights with strong radiational cooling, which in autumn (especially) gets countered by PWM's proximity to salt water, so their difference from points north and south seems odd.

 

We'll be in Washington County next week for our annual green certification audit.  06z GFS clown map suggests we might need snowshoes.  :lol:

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But only the most skilled and dedicated hunters.  Mediocre-to-average hunters like me usually take from the dumb end of the gene pool.  And I'd estimate that bull to have dressed out at 1,000-1,100 lb, with antler spread 60" or so.  (Arrows are about 30")

 

Thru 10/29:

 

CAR +4.1

BGR +4.6

PWM +6.0

CON +4.1

 

Haven't had too many nights with strong radiational cooling, which in autumn (especially) gets countered by PWM's proximity to salt water, so their difference from points north and south seems odd.

 

We'll be in Washington County next week for our annual green certification audit.  06z GFS clown map suggests we might need snowshoes.  :lol:

 

So does 12z GFS

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BTV posted this summary... congrats BTV on 7th warmest October in over 120 years:

Burlington: Will be the 7th warmest October going back to 1892 4.17" of rain is about 0.7" above normal. Wettest October was 1918 when 6.75" fell.

Massena NY Will be the 5th warmest October going back to 1948 2.04" of rain is about 0.8" below normal. Wettest October was in 2005 with 7.71" that month.

St Johnsbury Probably end up in 25th place of warmest Octobers going back to 1894. 4.87" of rain is about 1.5" above normal and nearly 3 inches below the wettest October on record there (2005 -- 8.59" rain that month)

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That's it for October's precipitation, and the numbers here came in as: Trace Snow/5.53" liquid

 

That's a bit below that average on both accounts based on the data here, and the first time in four seasons that we haven’t had measurable October snow.  However, October saw almost as much liquid as August and September combined, and this is the first day in the past 19 that there hasn't been measurable liquid in the gauge.  That seems like a fairly active pattern to me, so hopefully the moisture will stick around going forward.

 

The current system off the coast has the potential to bring a bit of snow this way, and the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all seem to suggest some moisture will get into this area.  Our point forecast does suggest the potential for an inch or two of snow down here in the valley, but we'll just have to see where the temperatures play out.  We're hanging in the mid 30s F so far though with these clouds.  It doesn't look like frozen precipitation will be any issue in the mountains – Mansfield is in the 26-27F range, and the forecast suggests it's just downward from there in terms of temperatures.

 

Some related text from the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 712 AM EDT SATURDAY...

 

THE 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF VT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE COASTAL SYSTEM TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SYSTEM WITH 5H/7H HGHT FIELDS 4 TO 5 STD BLW NORMAL ACRS THE SE CONUS...AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STREAM...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BLW AVERAGE.  OVERALL...ALL MODELS (GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF) AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING MAIN MID/UPPER LVL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION. 00Z TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN 5H/7H CIRCULATION TRACK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE QPF ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.15 AND 0.55" ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH SOME FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

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Wish I was home...GFS highlights eastern slopes of the Greens for the potential for 0.2" QPF and 1-2" of snow. Passing clouds can fart that amount in Dec/Jan but for first lower elevation snow it's exciting.

Rest of Today...Rain or snow likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tonight...Snow or rain likely until midnight...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Sunday...Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of snow or rain showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

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Saw MPV reported some UP and -SN, though 9 mile visibility.

 

I'm away, but reports of light snow at Stowe down to 1000-1200ft, but MVL light rain. Friend says it's snowing on I89 at the higher spots, especially Brookfield heights.

 

Snow levels have indeed been pretty low at times.  Despite the less than hospitable forecast, we decided to go ahead with soccer today anyway.  We were on the BJAMS fields at 650' in Morrisville, and when the precipitation started around midday it was already a mix of rain and snow.  At times it went to straight snow of moderate intensity (the flakes I saw were needles), but the switches back and forth between liquid/frozen precipitation didn't appear to be directly related to the intensity of the precipitation.  It was too warm for any accumulation, but there was certainly a decent shot of liquid, and we were pretty cold and soaked and called it after about an hour.  It's definitely feeling like November now, the clouds were thick and some automated sensor lights were even lit at midday.  Before the precipitation started, you could see that it was snow in the higher elevations, and it worked its way down into the valley, so I'm surprised that there's not much white visible on the Octagon Web Cam yet with ridge line temperatures in the 20s F, but it's possible they just haven't seen enough precipitation to really create any sort of accumulation yet.  Precipitation here at the house has been light rain and we're in the upper 30s F, but I got the snow tools out just in case it switches over at some point.

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Saw MPV reported some UP and -SN, though 9 mile visibility.

I'm away, but reports of light snow at Stowe down to 1000-1200ft, but MVL light rain. Friend says it's snowing on I89 at the higher spots, especially Brookfield heights.

Yes, my wife texted me a video from home of the snow. I guess it's stopped now. I'm in the CPV today so I missed it :(
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October 2014

 

Averages/Totals
Max 58.7°F (+1.3°F)
Min 42.8°F (+6.0°F)
Mean 50.8°F (+3.7°F)

Precip 4.47"

ET 1.45"

Extremes
High Max 74.6°F (15th)
Low Min 30.1°F (13th)
Low Max 48.3°F (31st)
High Min 60.2°F (16th)

Max Rain 1.68" (16th)

Peak Gust 29mph (22nd)

 

Max 6" Soil 61°F (17th and prev dates)

Min 6" Soil 50°F (31st and prev dates)

 

High Bar 30.36inHg (13th)

Low Bar 29.39inHg (26th)

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