eyewall Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 JSpin and yeah there isn't much agreement among the big 2 (GFS and Euro). Overnight the Euro misses the phase where as the GFS still goes for a bit of a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 GFS seems to be toying with the idea.. I just clicked on the 2011 thread thinking it was this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 JSpin and yeah there isn't much agreement among the big 2 (GFS and Euro). Overnight the Euro misses the phase where as the GFS still goes for a bit of a bomb. Yeah, I saw that on the ECMWF – the good thing is, with those modeled temperatures, it looks like there's some snow around here either way, even if it's just the usual orographic showers etc. If a large storm were to develop, it's always a crapshoot as to whether or not it does much in one's specific area, but the mountains stay where they are and tend to be a much safer bet for snow. On that note, we've got a moist flow from the northwest, and we've had some steady rains here this morning: I just looked at the temperature on Mt. Mansfield, and it's dropped to around the freezing mark, so it's not surprising that the Octagon Web Cam at Stowe is showing some white now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Nice, I'm out of town now so no obs...looks like snow though and good to see the upslope precip pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Nice, I'm out of town now so no obs...looks like snow though and good to see the upslope precip pattern. Don't worry PF, snow levels are pretty high (only green grass on the Bolton Valley Web Cam at 2,100'), so you're not missing anything too extravagant; just the sort of typical late October rain in the valleys snow in the mountains sort of deal. It is always nice to have the option to pop out for a hike and see where the snow line is and get the feel of some snow/snowfall though. We realize that although it's not nearly as much fun, unfortunately we have to go without your observations at times. I wouldn't actually mind heading out for a quick hike up to the snow, but I got in a couple solid hours at midi during soccer yesterday, so my legs got pretty cooked, and I have plenty of work to keep me occupied inside today, so the web cams will have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 A coworker sent me this from the Lookout Double chair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 A coworker sent me this from the Lookout Double chair... image.jpg Nice! What elevation is that around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 A coworker sent me this from the Lookout Double chair... image.jpg Google Earth is giving me an elevation of ~3,325' up there at the top of the Lookout Double, so I'd guess the snow line is getting down there near the 3,000' mark as the forecasts have been suggesting. Even when you're away you're still getting us good observations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 3300 or 3400 feet...ahh I see Jspin beat me to it haha. Yeah snow level does sound like its around 3000ft like BTV AFD talked about. Ill let you guys know if I hear more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 3300 or 3400 feet...ahh I see Jspin beat me to it haha. Yeah snow level does sound like its around 3000ft like BTV AFD talked about. Ill let you guys know if I hear more. It needs to come down to 2000 so I can hit the Bolton Road . It is much appreciated and nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 In his early WDEV broadcast from this morning, Roger Hill mentioned the potential for the first valley flakes of the season this upcoming weekend. He at first mentioned the chance for accumulation on grassy surfaces, but said that it's possible there could be accumulations that even affect road conditions, which was followed up by at least a slight urge to think about getting snow tires on. This weekend is November, so I suspect many people who switch over would be starting to think about it at this point. The GFS and ECMWF both seem to suggest the possibility of snow with that trough moving into the area (there's even snow showing up via that rather conservative ECMWF snow algorithm), and the BTV NWS forecast discussion expressed similar thoughts to Roger's: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 444 AM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ECWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECTING ANY RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE THE SEASONS FIRST SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MODEL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SUGGESTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A friend posted this shot of Camels Hump on social media...wintery appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 God I hate CON sometimes... 6am 43F 7am 36F (min 35F) 8am 45F That's a faux low right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A friend posted this shot of Camels Hump on social media...wintery appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hey you liked those photos too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hey you liked those photos too Haha caught me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Haha caught me.You're office f'ing rocks... TABER for the win. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Looks like October will finish up about +3 at my place. Have not seen 32 or below since the 13th - not complaining, though, as my pickup heater now blows only cold air. Only 5 days 32 or below this month; lowest for the previous 16 Octobers is 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Looks like October will finish up about +3 at my place. Have not seen 32 or below since the 13th - not complaining, though, as my pickup heater now blows only cold air. Only 5 days 32 or below this month; lowest for the previous 16 Octobers is 8 days. Yeah its been a warm month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Looks like October will finish up about +3 at my place. Have not seen 32 or below since the 13th - not complaining, though, as my pickup heater now blows only cold air. Only 5 days 32 or below this month; lowest for the previous 16 Octobers is 8 days. haven't hit 32f yet. Explains why the grass keeps growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Your office f'ing rocks... TABER for the win. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. LOL, I was going to post that if you hadn't already – that's a BTV NWS forecast discussion right there; indeed our local NWS office rocks. The other forecast comment I was going to make was with regard to Roger Hill's broadcast this morning – he was a little more emphatic about folks getting their snow tires on in the interest of preparation for potentially slippery roads. Since he's focused on the North-Central part of the state, that makes sense based on other comments in the forecast discussion: PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 i have absolutely nothing invested in this upcoming weekend event, but im damn glad to have something to track. happy days are here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 You're office f'ing rocks... TABER for the win. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. Lol that may have been just a little premature, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Lol that may have been just a little premature, but we'll see. Hahah yeah it is looking closer to high cirrus now, at least in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If a large storm were to develop, it's always a crapshoot as to whether or not it does much in one's specific area, but the mountains stay where they are and tend to be a much safer bet for snow. Based on the current guidance, it certainly doesn't look like there's a lot of direct impact to be expected in NVT from that projected storm off the coast – any accumulations look to be much more along the lines of the lakes and mountains doing their thing. The BTV NWS is certainly still talking about the potential for snow with that cold air however: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12Z MET is still trying to get 65F into CON at 18Z...not gonna happen. 50.1F with -SHRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Moose season just ended in VT...and totally off-topic but this season saw the largest moose ever taken with a bow in VT. I've seen a couple moose in the Stowe area over the years but holy crap this thing is massive. I can't believe an arrow took this thing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Moose season just ended in VT...and totally off-topic but this season saw the largest moose ever taken with a bow in VT. I've seen a couple moose in the Stowe area over the years but holy crap this thing is massive. I can't believe an arrow took this thing down. image.jpg I know, I know, I'm not a hunter. Hate to see such a massive beautiful animal taken down. Nature takes the weak and sick, hunting seems to do the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Lots of cloud layers today. Have gone from zero vis to 40 mile vis many times. In and out of the showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I know, I know, I'm not a hunter. Hate to see such a massive beautiful animal taken down. Nature takes the weak and sick, hunting seems to do the opposite. I'm not a hunter either but I think its fine if they play by the rules. The state had a much lower moose quota the past few years due to a winter tick but the population is rising again so I think they have a good handle on things. With deer I think you should be able to hunt more, lol, those things are like big squirrels. But I know a bunch of folks that eat all winter on the meat they hunt in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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