NNE Fall Thread

[J.Spin]

I know JSpin has the Mansfield snowfall bar graph and it's very cyclical...maybe he can post that again if he sees this.

 

Here’s the one I made a couple of months ago:

 

[powderfreak]

Yes, I remember Mansfield had a peak in the 1970s I think it was, then a dip in the 1980s and a peak again maybe in the early or mid 2000s with a slight decline very recently.

But Mansfield is obviously a bit quirky even compared to some other stations up there.

Yeah BTV doesn't follow that trend of the slight recent decline... But I also wonder if that's because the lower elevations can more easily be manipulated by one or two big storms, while the high elevations need a more continuously snowy winter (ie need to be in the sustained sweet spot).

Would be interesting to look at MWN and see if it follows that pattern...though 2,000ft high can make it a hard comparison. Mansfield's climo is also relying on steady diet of orographic snow, though the Coop is notoriously low in those events due to the windy/fluffy snow combo missing the precip can for collection...so maybe that doesn't matter as much? Who knows, you also have the issue of heavy wet snowfalls are the best collected storm totals for MMNV1 and MWN, as no matter how much you try to shield the can, you have snow falling sideways past it and the actual snowfall is under-caught. I know MWN is way under reported too, but it's what you have to work with for long term records. It would be cool if MWN had records from Hermit Lake Shelter at 3,500ft in the evergreens or something on a ground based board.

[powderfreak]

Here’s the one I made a couple of months ago:

That's it! Thanks.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah BTV doesn't follow that trend of the slight recent decline... But I also wonder if that's because the lower elevations can more easily be manipulated by one or two big storms, while the high elevations need a more continuously snowy winter (ie need to be in the sustained sweet spot).

Would be interesting to look at MWN and see if it follows that pattern...though 2,000ft high can make it a hard comparison. Mansfield's climo is also relying on steady diet of orographic snow, though the Coop is notoriously low in those events due to the windy/fluffy snow combo missing the precip can for collection...so maybe that doesn't matter as much? Who knows, you also have the issue of heavy wet snowfalls are the best collected storm totals for MMNV1 and MWN, as no matter how much you try to shield the can, you have snow falling sideways past it and the actual snowfall is under-caught. I know MWN is way under reported too, but it's what you have to work with for long term records. It would be cool if MWN had records from Hermit Lake Shelter at 3,500ft in the evergreens or something on a ground based board.

 

Pinkham Notch

 

MWN

 

[powderfreak]

Wow what happened at Pinkham Notch after 1980? Was there a site switch or measuring change? Only 11 of the 33 winters since then exceeded the long term average of 126"...while prior to that, 44 of 49 winters exceeded the long term average!

That's an incredible and almost unbelievable difference...just eyeballing it, it looks like 25" of annual snow just disappeared after 1980. Doesn't fit with the recent snow surplus since 2000 or 1995 that a lot of spots in New England seem to have.

[powderfreak]

MMNV1 seems to have much more cyclical snow trends than either of those two, as well. What's interesting is the Mansfield data doesn't seem to have such extreme peaks relative to normal. The record winters at the NH sites are ridiculous relative to their normals, like 250% of normal, while Mansfield tops out at like 150% of normal. Those two Pinkham Notch winters are really crazy though relative to normal...that's like ORH or ALB getting 170" of snow in a season, or BTV with 200".

[OceanStWx]

Wow what happened at Pinkham Notch after 1980? Was there a site switch or measuring change? Only 11 of the 33 winters since then exceeded the long term average of 126"...while prior to that, 44 of 49 winters exceeded the long term average!

That's an incredible and almost unbelievable difference...just eyeballing it, it looks like 25" of annual snow just disappeared after 1980. Doesn't fit with the recent snow surplus since 2000 or 1995 that a lot of spots in New England seem to have.

 

No movement of that site, aside from some cosmetic stuff in the recent decade.

[OceanStWx]

MMNV1 seems to have much more cyclical snow trends than either of those two, as well. What's interesting is the Mansfield data doesn't seem to have such extreme peaks relative to normal. The record winters at the NH sites are ridiculous relative to their normals, like 250% of normal, while Mansfield tops out at like 150% of normal. Those two Pinkham Notch winters are really crazy though relative to normal...that's like ORH or ALB getting 170" of snow in a season, or BTV with 200".

 

Well those record seasons for both sites are 1969. This thread knows that year all too well.

 

Pinkham picked up 77" in the last four days of February that year. MWN, 97.8", including over 49" on the 25th.

[MainePhotog]

1.55" total rainfall as of 6 am.

[dryslot]

Well those record seasons for both sites are 1969. This thread knows that year all too well.

 

Pinkham picked up 77" in the last four days of February that year. MWN, 97.8", including over 49" on the 25th.

 

My all time Favorite

[CoastalWx]

How can you not slap your head if you are from VT. LOL. Great governor's debate.

[powderfreak]

How can you not slap your head if you are from VT. LOL. Great governor's debate.

Lol did you see that? It's all over the Internet. Like a real life Saturday night live skit. Gov Shumlin has no contesters but VT allows all candidates to be in the debate, no matter how extreme they are.

VT may not be racially diverse, but we've got the most diverse group of white people you'll ever see lol.

[powderfreak]

As of 7am, the local CoCoRAHS had 0.48" in the village, but pretty evident east flow pattern with precip amounts dropping off quickly on the west side of the Spine. Like 0.45" in Waitsfield/Warren and 0.12" in Lincoln. Or 0.48" in Stowe and 0.19" in Underhill.

[powderfreak]

No movement of that site, aside from some cosmetic stuff in the recent decade.

Any ideas on the drop off in snow totals after 1980? There's a definite change there from before 1980 and after it.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow what happened at Pinkham Notch after 1980? Was there a site switch or measuring change? Only 11 of the 33 winters since then exceeded the long term average of 126"...while prior to that, 44 of 49 winters exceeded the long term average!

That's an incredible and almost unbelievable difference...just eyeballing it, it looks like 25" of annual snow just disappeared after 1980. Doesn't fit with the recent snow surplus since 2000 or 1995 that a lot of spots in New England seem to have.

 

 

It looks to me like the data was much more pristine prior to about 1976 going back to roughly 1950. Most of their years have no missing data prior to that season....since then, there's a lot of years with like 6 missing days, or 8 missing days or 5 missing days....last winter was actually the first season they had zero missing days since 1996-1997.

 

 

I randomly checked 4 winters to see if the missing days were significant...and it turned out they were. I checked 2000-2001, 2002-2003, 2006-2007, and 2007-2008...storms that had missing snowfall data from these winters were: New Years weekend storm 2000, two November 2002 events and two March 2003 events, the first half of the Patriots Day 2007 storm, a minor event in December 2007 and a larger event in early February 2008.  

 

So it appears that missing days are occurring during snow events. It also leaves me a bit more skeptical of how accurate their reported totals are during recorded snow events....i.e., the missing data is a sign of laziness or carelessness which might be how they measure snow when they do report it.

[tamarack]

MMNV1 seems to have much more cyclical snow trends than either of those two, as well. What's interesting is the Mansfield data doesn't seem to have such extreme peaks relative to normal. The record winters at the NH sites are ridiculous relative to their normals, like 250% of normal, while Mansfield tops out at like 150% of normal. Those two Pinkham Notch winters are really crazy though relative to normal...that's like ORH or ALB getting 170" of snow in a season, or BTV with 200".

 

This discussion led me to look at my favorite long-term snow records - Farmington coop - and try to discover its trends.  For no particular (or, probably, statistically valid) reason, I chose 9-yeaqr running averages, the subject year averaged with the 4 before it and the 4 after.  Thus, though records began Jan 1.1893, my averages begin with 1897-98 and end with 2009-2010.  Rather than take up space with the whole set, only the "flex points" are shown below.  Full cycles (high-to-high or low-to-low) of less than 5 years are ignored.

 

1899-00....99.3"

1911-12....79.7"

1923-24...100.5"

1933-34....81.3"

1942-43....87.8"

1952-53....78.0"

1958-59....91.0"

1962-63....84.2"

1972-73...111.7"

1983-84....73.5"

1996-97....98.2"

2001-02....82.3"

2004-05....97.4"

 

Yup, the 60s (late 60s especially) and 70s were good, the 80s awful.  And despite some good winters, the 1930s thru the early 60s was pretty meh overall.

[dendrite]

Nice obs out of MWN today.

[mahk_webstah]

Nice obs out of MWN today.

who wouldn't want freezing rain and winds gusting past 60?

[dendrite]

who wouldn't want freezing rain and winds gusting past 60?

Welcome back winter weenie.

 

And yeah, they're getting a nice glop storm.

 

http://www.uswx.com/uswx/text.php?q=03276&h=24&stn=Kmwn

[mahk_webstah]

Welcome back winter weenie.

 

And yeah, they're getting a nice glop storm.

 

http://www.uswx.com/uswx/text.php?q=03276&h=24&stn=Kmwn

Thanks.  I'm hyped for a good one!  I do lurk much of the year, just don't post much.  And I've been out of the country a lot this year.  Got Gonzalo remnants yesterday.

 

I've noticed this year that your sense of humor has developed and your wit is sharper.  Somewhere between the subtlety of Will (he doesn't get enough credit for his sense of humor) and the brilliant spontaneity of Zeus.

 

Combine that with Kevin having a meltdown in October, Dryslot posting Feb 69 maps already, and the Siberian snow cover...and I think we are off to a great start!  

[eyewall]

The rain keeps getting pushed back in our zones as the storm has become quite a windmaker along the coast of SNE. This is definitely not an easy one to forecast. It will be interesting to see what kind of rainfall we can eventually squeeze out of this thing up here.

[tamarack]

Intermittent showers, some moderate but most light, have totaled 1.31" in my gauge over the 48 hr ending at 7 this morning.

[eekuasepinniW]

just yawned so hard my jaw cracked.

[dryslot]

[dryslot]

Thanks.  I'm hyped for a good one!  I do lurk much of the year, just don't post much.  And I've been out of the country a lot this year.  Got Gonzalo remnants yesterday.

 

I've noticed this year that your sense of humor has developed and your wit is sharper.  Somewhere between the subtlety of Will (he doesn't get enough credit for his sense of humor) and the brilliant spontaneity of Zeus.

 

Combine that with Kevin having a meltdown in October, Dryslot posting Feb 69 maps already, and the Siberian snow cover...and I think we are off to a great start!  

 

Good to see you back posting Mark, Another sign the seasons are changing.................

[mahk_webstah]

Good to see you back posting Mark, Another sign the seasons are changing.................

Am I an indicator?  If I show up in October is that a sign of a good winter?  I'm actually 10 pounds light than last year, so that is probably not a good sign (don't know about the squirrels).  Also, I will be home a lot in Dec and Jan so that probably isn't a good sign.

[eekuasepinniW]

A better indicator is that I'm about to leave. 

[dryslot]

Am I an indicator?  If I show up in October is that a sign of a good winter?  I'm actually 10 pounds light than last year, so that is probably not a good sign (don't know about the squirrels).  Also, I will be home a lot in Dec and Jan so that probably isn't a good sign.

 

lol, Yes you are, But eek bailing is probably the best indicator of all

[mahk_webstah]

A better indicator is that I'm about to leave. 

for good?  or just for a while?  I want to know whether to expect an early storm, or an entire rocking winter.

[eekuasepinniW]

for good?  or just for a while?  I want to know whether to expect an early storm, or an entire rocking winter.

for a while.

 

and I reserve the right to troll the winter outlook thread with pictures of every palm tree I come across while I'm gone.