Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Doesn't look like any real chance this weekend...moisture moves out before the cold arrives. Early next week may have some summit flurry potential though. Late Sunday night early Monday AM on the Euro on the picnic table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 For MVL the MET/MAV is 23/30F... pretty big difference lol. 23F is like no contest everything is frozen solid, 30F is still freeze but not quite to the same level. The MET is probably too aggressive as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Late Sunday night early Monday AM on the Euro on the picnic table I don't see it. Sunday is really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't see it. Sunday is really warm.day early, post frontal Mon, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 For MVL the MET/MAV is 23/30F... pretty big difference lol. 23F is like no contest everything is frozen solid, 30F is still freeze but not quite to the same level. Ugh 23F would harm fall foliage. You don't want a hard freeze when everything is still green. Makes them go brown quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The MET is probably too aggressive as usual. Yeah that's what I was assuming. Even though MVL can radiate, we'd fog out well before 23F this time of year. Dews would have to be very low to get down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ugh 23F would harm fall foliage. You don't want a hard freeze when everything is still green. Makes them go brown quicker.Yeah...I'm still not seeing much change. I'm wondering if the quick flip from like 80s/60s to 50s/30s wasn't the most ideal, especially with the amount of clouds in the past week. If it's a shock to us to go from AC to heat from one week to the next, I'm sure the environment also gets a bit of a shock. A real hard freeze would not be ideal now.We need a week of high pressure with no clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I wonder what it looks like above that level...that may just be more freezing drizzle or mist. I've seen a lot of light ZR before in September since being up here, but flakes are harder to come by because orographic processes are occurring too low to really tap deep cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I wonder what it looks like above that level...that may just be more freezing drizzle or mist. I've seen a lot of light ZR before in September since being up here, but flakes are harder to come by because orographic processes are occurring too low to really tap deep cold aloft.above 850,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 above 850,? Yeah...is the moisture deep enough up into the cold air to produce flakes. Often this time of year it's just super-cooled droplets that cause a freezing rain or mist at the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yeah...is the moisture deep enough up into the cold air to produce flakes. Often this time of year it's just super-cooled droplets that cause a freezing rain or mist at the summits.you mean RH? Temps are plenty cold, hope you get some lift, man 18Z has a strong cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 you mean RH? Temps are plenty cold, hope you get some lift, man 18Z has a strong cold shot He's wondering if there's RH at temperatures -8C or colder. Without it, you could end up with drizzle since there might be no ice in the cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Freeze watch...nice to see more blue on the warning map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 If decoupling comes early, my frost pocket should make a run at 25. September's coldest here (23) came back in 2000, and that record is probably out of play. However, #2 is a mere 26 in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Lots of U20s and L30s in S ON under that high this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yeah...I'm still not seeing much change. I'm wondering if the quick flip from like 80s/60s to 50s/30s wasn't the most ideal, especially with the amount of clouds in the past week. If it's a shock to us to go from AC to heat from one week to the next, I'm sure the environment also gets a bit of a shock. A real hard freeze would not be ideal now. We need a week of high pressure with no clouds. Have you had a lot of clouds there this fall? You don't want clouds during the transition time...you want sunny days and cold, crisp nights (but no hard freezes, like light frosts or temps around 40). A hard freeze will not be good for the foliage if it happens in the valleys up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 The leaf drop will be in the plus range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Have you had a lot of clouds there this fall? You don't want clouds during the transition time...you want sunny days and cold, crisp nights (but no hard freezes, like light frosts or temps around 40). A hard freeze will not be good for the foliage if it happens in the valleys up there. Yeah we've had a lot of stratus unfortunately. The next week looks better with sun and cool nights/warm days. Hopefully the freeze isn't too bad tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Have you had a lot of clouds there this fall? You don't want clouds during the transition time...you want sunny days and cold, crisp nights (but no hard freezes, like light frosts or temps around 40). A hard freeze will not be good for the foliage if it happens in the valleys up there. Yeah it seems in recent years we've had that like 7-14 day dry period in September of high pressure and high diurnal ranges and clear skies. Haven't had anything close to that this year. I've been up here long enough to know that the leaves are obviously going to still change, and it'll still look stunning for a couple of days, but the peak may be muted in length. It may be a short duration change, of an already short foliage season compared to spots south in the mid-Atlantic. What I really like is the couple week lead up to "peak" when its sunny and you can watch the leaves advance almost daily...the photography options are still plentiful. Right now its just not there. I haven't felt the desire to take out the camera at all yet and its now September 18th, even up on the mountain. Although peak is almost always about two weeks away in early October, by Columbus Day its usually past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yeah we've had a lot of stratus unfortunately. The next week looks better with sun and cool nights/warm days. Hopefully the freeze isn't too bad tonight. The winter-lover in me wants it to be like 27F tomorrow morning with ice in the bird bath, lol, but I wouldn't shed a tear if we stayed like 33-34F with fog for the foliage season. My guess here would be a foggy 31-32F. With 28-31F just above the fog layer in that 900-1200ft range (still low enough elevation to avoid any light breezes). I've seen a lot of fall cold nights early in the season where I'm right at freezing with like 1/8sm fog (similar to MVL) with a frost and borderline freeze...while just up Mountain Road you come out of the fog at like Edson Hill Rd (say 850-900ft) and then its just glistening hard freeze, cars frozen solid, etc. Lastly the frost/freeze disappears as you head up past 1,200ft towards the base of the ski resort where a light drainage wind kept them at 33-35F up near the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Pattern change? This is about the most bipolar way to get to a "near normal" departure halfway through a month. Temperature departures for MVL-- SEPT 1-6...+7.9 SEPT 7-11...+0.4 SEPT 12-17...-9.7 Month-to-date...-0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Temperature departures for MBY-- SEPT 1-6...+7.0 SEPT 7-11...-3.6 SEPT 12-17...-8.4 Month-to-date...-1.6 Not quite as drastic as MVL, but both places have normals that drop considerably thru the month. Actual temps here for the three periods: SEPT 1-6...67.6 SEPT 7-11...54.9 SEPT 12-17...47.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 lol, Screw the leaves, I want them off the trees for hunting..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 The MET is probably too aggressive as usual.It has dews up here in the upper 10s tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 It has dews up here in the upper 10s tomorrow. lolHaha same here, it thinks we'll be 56/16 tomorrow afternoon. MET for MVL is 26F, and MAV is 27F. Pretty consistent. Both have BTV with a freeze...30/31 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Haha same here, it thinks we'll be 56/16 tomorrow afternoon. MET for MVL is 26F, and MAV is 27F. Pretty consistent. Both have BTV with a freeze...30/31 respectively. I don't think I'll touch 32F tonight...I see my min ending up around 34-35F. CON will probably have 3 straight hours of 34F, but pull off an in-between min of 32F or something. 55/47 with a 10-15mph NNW wind right now. 12Z MAV has 19F for SLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I don't think I'll touch 32F tonight...I see my min ending up around 34-35F. CON will probably have 3 straight hours of 34F, but pull off an in-between min of 32F or something. 55/47 with a 10-15mph NNW wind right now. 12Z MAV has 19F for SLK. 48/36 up here, so better chance of getting down to freezing. Eastern areas may do better tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 48/36 up here, so better chance of getting down to freezing. Eastern areas may do better tomorrow night? Maybe...I think I'll do better tonight. 18Z MAV just came in with 18F for SLK...31F BTV, 26F MVL, 34F CON, HIE 22F, BML 23F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 48/36 up here, so better chance of getting down to freezing. Eastern areas may do better tomorrow night? Resort or MVL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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