powderfreak Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Oct measurable is very rare around here. Like Nittany said, about 2/3 into Nov sounds about right. If you look at my sig, I had 3 years without any November measurable. A trace is a lot earlier though. When you're accumulating the snow in NW flow during Oct/Nov, we're usually only getting occasional flurries/graupel showers with temps of 35-45F. Yeah I guess there is a big difference between measurable and trace... I feel like at the very least we get some decent graupel showers that can put down a quick couple tenths (that melt like an hour later). The type of thing where J.Spin picks up 0.3" of little balls on the snowboard but if he wasn't home at the time it would've been like it never happened. Like you alluded, we probably have a little better chance most years of light accumulations during squally NW flow stuff...but if there's more of a synoptic wave you guys probably have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Rain forecast... looks like BTV is going with SE flow climo highlighting the eastern side of the Spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Yeah I guess there is a big difference between measurable and trace... I feel like at the very least we get some decent graupel showers that can put down a quick couple tenths (that melt like an hour later). The type of thing where J.Spin picks up 0.3" of little balls on the snowboard but if he wasn't home at the time it would've been like it never happened. Like you alluded, we probably have a little better chance most years of light accumulations during squally NW flow stuff...but if there's more of a synoptic wave you guys probably have a better chance. We know we’re aided by the mountains around here with respect to snowfall in general, and based on what I’ve seen since living along the spine, that boost plays into those early snowfalls as well. Using my data from the past eight seasons, I ran the numbers for mean date of first trace, mean date of first accumulating snow, and mean date of first 1” snowfall; the values are as follows, ± S.D.: Mean date of first trace: 10/20 ± 7 days Mean date of first accumulation: 10/26 ± 11 days (mean accumulation = 1.0”) Mean date of first 1” snowfall: 11/10 ± 16 days (mean accumulation = 2.1”) So while the mean value for accumulation from the first snowfall here is 1.0”, actually averaging the date for first snowfall of an inch or greater, does push the date into November. In any event, we’re getting quite close to frozen precipitation time now; it’s only a couple of weeks to the mean date for first trace, and just a week to the date of our earliest trace (10/11/09). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Nice stats JSpin, good to have for a reference. I feel like often the first trace isn't necessarily flakes, but graupel showers, or graupel mixed with some flakes. Get a couple heavy bursts and the mulch and dirt surfaces whiten up. And almost always it seems the first trace or accums happens from upslope squalls...more so than synoptic snow...although Oct 2010 was a synoptic system that changed to heavy wet snow for the first accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Nice stats JSpin, good to have for a reference. I feel like often the first trace isn't necessarily flakes, but graupel showers, or graupel mixed with some flakes. Get a couple heavy bursts and the mulch and dirt surfaces whiten up. And almost always it seems the first trace or accums happens from upslope squalls...more so than synoptic snow...although Oct 2010 was a synoptic system that changed to heavy wet snow for the first accums. Indeed, I’ve found that graupel is quite common in those early events, and it aids in getting those early first accumulations – the graupel is much more robust than dendrites and can hang around long enough to accumulate to levels surpassing that 0.1” level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Rain just about to end. Total will be around .95"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 As is usual, the radar is not doing a good job picking up low level precip falling on this side of the mountains. Still a heavy amount of sheet drizzle falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 As is usual, the radar is not doing a good job picking up low level precip falling on this side of the mountains. Still a heavy amount of sheet drizzle falling. Yeah same here. Winds have picked up too...like sideways sheet drizzle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Just checked the stratus rain gauge and have 0.87" here as of 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Given the variability of early season snowfall, the median might be more informative than the mean, especially for those buried by the Octobomb. We weren't (4.5") but my Oct mean snowfall is 0.86" while the median is zero. Had 0.40" overnight and 0.56" since precip started predawn yest, not huge but biggest event since mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Given the variability of early season snowfall, the median might be more informative than the mean, especially for those buried by the Octobomb. We weren't (4.5") but my Oct mean snowfall is 0.86" while the median is zero. Good point Tamarack; it’s always nice to check that mean/median relationship, but it’s especially prudent in the cases where there’s potentially high variability, like the edges of the snow season. We haven’t been involved in any big October snowfalls in the eight seasons that we’ve been at this location; it appears that what’s fallen here has been more akin to the typical steady diet of NNE October snow. The data really speak volumes in that regard if you add in the median numbers - the mean/median dates are all within a day of each other, and the snowfall amounts are fairly tight as well, suggesting that there aren’t a lot of outliers skewing the results: Mean date of first trace: 10/20 ± 7 days; median = 10/21 Mean date of first accumulation: 10/26 ± 11 days; median = 10/27 (mean accumulation = 1.0”; median = 0.8”) Mean date of first 1” snowfall: 11/10 ± 16 days; median = 11/9 (mean accumulation = 2.1”; median = 1.7”) For October as a whole, mean snowfall is 0.7”, with a median of 0.6”. I’m actually surprised at how tight those distributions are after only eight seasons, but it presumably argues for a level of consistency vs. the occurrence of extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 According to WCAX Mt. Mansfield had its first flakes of the season this morning.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 According to WCAX Mt. Mansfield had its first flakes of the season this morning.: Thanks for that update eyewall – I was just talking about that potential with my wife a few minutes ago. I mentioned that I’d actually heard a bunch of talk about local snow over the past few days – in general it was mention in the weather forecasts about how things were getting close, but it wasn’t quite cold enough to get any accumulation in the peaks with the recent system. One of the other dads at the Cambridge soccer tournament yesterday mentioned that he’d heard the topic come up in recent forecasts as well. It looks like there was enough cold air to grab some flakes on Mansfield though. I see that Mt. Mansfield was getting close to the freezing mark this morning along the ridge line, and not surprisingly, the summit of Mt. Washington is sub freezing at this point. Per the recent discussion in the thread about October snowfall frequency in the valleys, we’re clearly getting close to the time of year when the white stuff can appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 I noticed the Stratton station was down to 32F this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 According to WCAX Mt. Mansfield had its first flakes of the season this morning.: Nice... if someone was going to see a passing wet snow shower its going to be the 24 hour station engineer up at 4,000ft. No one I know at the ski resort saw flakes, but most of our activities take place below 3,600ft (the elevation of the picnic tables, lol) with the exception of the Toll Road up to the Green Mtn Club visitors center. Now, that same station engineer is the one who reports the Co-Op readings...he should call in a "Trace" today right? It was 34-35F up there all morning...wonder if its possible flakes didn't even make it to 3,500ft. Might have literally been the only human-being in VT up at that elevation at that time of the morning, good thing he had a camera of some sort, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Nice... if someone was going to see a passing wet snow shower its going to be the 24 hour station engineer up at 4,000ft. No one I know at the ski resort saw flakes, but most of our activities take place below 3,600ft (the elevation of the picnic tables, lol) with the exception of the Toll Road up to the Green Mtn Club visitors center. Now, that same station engineer is the one who reports the Co-Op readings...he should call in a "Trace" today right? It was 34-35F up there all morning...wonder if its possible flakes didn't even make it to 3,500ft. Might have literally been the only human-being in VT up at that elevation at that time of the morning, good thing he had a camera of some sort, lol. Yeah it should be the first trace of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 FWIW, average first measurable on Mansfield is 10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Yeah it should be the first trace of the season. Key terms with the Co-Op... lol Do you guys ever alter their reports...ie like this guy posted a pic of flakes and then calls in a "zero"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Key terms with the Co-Op... lol Do you guys ever alter their reports...ie like this guy posted a pic of flakes and then calls in a "zero"? Lol yeah seriously. And only on a rare occasion do we change something, if something looks really bad or wrong, but usually we call them first and try to talk to them about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Lol yeah seriously. And only on a rare occasion do we change something, if something looks really bad or wrong, but usually we call them first and try to talk to them about it. Haha, most of the time I just chalk it up to the collection method with snow on a windy summit. But there must be some head scratchers at times. The one thing I haven't figured out, is often in winter storms the LE makes sense, but the snow total doesn't. Like the ratios up there seem really low regardless. I don't know how they collect the liquid relatively well but not the actual snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Wait ... the picnic tables are not at 4k??? This changes everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Wait ... the picnic tables are not at 4k??? This changes everything 3625 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Already 45F. If winds stay calm I'll have an outside shot at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Already 45F. If winds stay calm I'll have an outside shot at 32F.48F here, dews dropped to 33F this afternoon so it'll be a race with the WAA aloft and any mixing.I just noticed it's OVC too so that's gonna hurt us here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 45.7/39 at 7:45pm. Im sure I'll stay frost free again. Always takes weeks longer up on the hill. Pulled out all the annuals anyhow today. Better to get the gardens ready for winter on days like this. I have been putting in a couple of logs in the wood stove every evening and getting it ready but not lighting it. Wake up in the early morning hours, throw a match to the stove and go back to bed. Warms the house nicely with a couple of logs then let it go out. Too warm to keep the stove going but too cool at night to not have any heat. Another month or so the stove will stay lit 24/7. Then when we get to the nights below 15F the kitchen stove gets lit too. 225 year old houses do not retain heat too well but the southern exposure does help on sunny days. Couple of pics of the house this summer, you can see the Davis up over the roof. Probably higher than it should be for temp readings....webcam is to the right of the flag about where the house meets the deck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Beautiful abode Gene. You're in a weenie spot for this general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 That spot looks like it doesn't suck haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Beautiful Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Thanks guys. 20 years ago when I lived in the Boston area I was determined to some day move to a place with "real" winters. I balanced my love for weather with not being too far from Rt 93 so I could get to civilization and Boston easily. I also wanted to be near a lake for swimming etc. and thought the Newfound area of NH was the perfect balance. When I found the house and its 15 acres with fantastic views I knew I had found my spot. Would be nice to be 500 feet higher but all in all its a good balance for snow, cold air damning and to be able to see summer T storms coming in from the west. Nice to be part of the NNE group and the southerners that follow us. One more picture, and this you see on my webcam, the view to the SW. Yes, I cheated with this picture and brought up the saturation a bit but it was pretty close to one of the best sunsets I have ever seen from my house. Taken a few years ago around this time of year, I think I have posted it before. Good night all.... Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Gene how far are you from that comm tower on the ridge line? You told me before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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