WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'll give myself a B+ this year. I underestimated the elasticity of the PV, which screwed up my AO forecast. Otherwise, I think I got the general progression right. December: A-. Expected the +AO/+EPO following the observed autumnal poleward AAM transport. Underestimated the magnitude of the warmth. January: B. Did see the flip to cold following the wave-breaking event over the NPAC. However, I did not expect the highly elastic/barotropic PV to single handedly prevent the feedback process that would have led to a SSW and tanked the AO. February: B. Got the temperature signal right, but I underestimated the severity of the cold. I also thought we'd see more in the way of temperature swings than we really did. Overall, not too bad, in my opinion. Would have verified better if we'd actually gotten the SSW. Live, love, learn. Thanks for doing this and I want others to do it on their own forecast or someone else's if they wish. Also, there were a lot of graphics posted here. How did that pan out versus expectations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 January averaged between -2 and -3 around the area, so I don't think the -3 call was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 good job Howard...hopefully more snow is on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Temperatures: Below average-well below average Snowfall:Above average-well above average Monthly Temps Dec:-1 Jan:-5 Feb:-2 Overall:-2.5 to -3.5 Snowfall DCA:25" IAD/BWI:30-35" Analog years:1953(54),1955(56),1963,1976,1980,1981,1983,1984,2001. I edited this about 30 minutes after posting. I do not have a primary analog this year. I do think the extreme cold air intrusions that the early 80's demonstrated is the sort of set up we will have. Those shots were not winter long but when they hit it was -20 and colder departures. I would grade Dec. as an E, January as a C- and Feb as a C. The overall call of -2.5 to -3.5 with a -1.6 realized is a B. The combined monthlies plus the overall averages is a C+. Snowfall call for above to well above average turned out to be more like around average so not great but not a bust, would grade that a C. I still lean toward the overall temp more than the monthlies and I think my reference of multiple -20 values was a good one and the prediction of one extremely cold month, albeit Feb and not the predicted Jan, was a good mitigating factor. Including Mr Z forecast I have reviewed some others and about 4/5 did very well, better than me. I encourage any other participants to grade their own forecast or anyone elses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I would grade Dec. as an E, January as a C- and Feb as a C. The overall call of -2.5 to -3.5 with a -1.6 realized is a B. The combined monthlies plus the overall averages is a C+. Snowfall call for above to well above average turned out to be more like around average so not great but not a bust, would grade that a C. I still lean toward the overall temp more than the monthlies and I think my reference of multiple -20 values was a good one and the prediction of one extremely cold month, albeit Feb and not the predicted Jan, was a good mitigating factor. Including Mr Z forecast I have reviewed some others and about 4/5 did very well, better than me. I encourage any other participants to grade their own forecast or anyone elses. I think you did pretty well. And we might get more snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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